Markets... Surprise!! Yes, They Are Still Going Up!

12th Mar '10 by Robbie Burnsie

13 comments 5312 reads

The UK market doesn't seem to care about our debt or the trouble we are in - the only thing that counts is following the US.

Wow. Great results from Nestor Healthcare Group (LON:NSR). I can see why they've been rising. I'm up more than £5,000 now including the spreadbets. On those figures I'm not at all tempted to cash in yet. Indeed.. can you guess what's coming? Yes, right! I bought some more! This time another 8,000 at 51.9. New target for these is 70p. I think there is another 25% upside here.

The directors waded in and bought shedloads of shares after results yesterday at the same price as me! One bought a whopping 100,000 shares! Another bought 80,000 and another 20,000. That's a big show of support for their own company. And broker Investec has a similar target to me (69p) saying:

"The business operates in attractive sub-sectors, has a strong management team and is building increasing momentum."

Nestor remains one of Investec's top picks in the sector. I suspect I might even hang onto them in the longer term even if they hit 70p but I'll wait till (hopefully) then to decide.

Pace Micro Technology (LON:PIC) tumbled after results because they said growth would be in single figures after some terrific growth last year. But the figures are still brilliant and I felt the sell off overdone and was waiting for the turn. I got £30 on a spreadbet at 175. Target 210 stop 165.

Hardy has done me before so I was keeping a beady eye on it, deciding to quit if it dipped below 220 which it did and I went at 218.17 for a small loss of £94.

I have so many massive profits - only thing is they're not real till banked but I'm taking the chance and running them further.

Recent buys go well! As well as Nestor, Corin Group has been rising very nicely and I'm very hopeful of my 80p target on these. Top up Petrofac continues to soar! Now over 1200 which is fantastic. Profits for the website now hit over £16,000 and I reckon I should end up collecting £20,000 on these.

Recent buy Harvey Nash Group continues to rise - indeed…

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SW10Chap

12th Mar '10

Wow...I'm up more than £5,000...I bought some more!..waded in and bought shedloads...big show of support...Investec has a similar target to me...I felt the sell off overdone...I got £30 on a spreadbet...I went at 218.17 for a small loss of £94...I have so many massive profits...Recent buys go well...rising very nicely...continues to soar...I should end up collecting £20,000...nearly 20% bagged...big buying going ...the take profits button...good profits now...motoring up towards my short-term targets...really going for it...top up goes really well...list of doublers....Long-term doubler...continues to look good...already paying off...rising nicely...up more than £3,000...the big spreadbet I have...giant profits...it's heading back up

Good grief! Does anyone read this before publishing?

It reads like a self-obsessed bore describing the fabulous growth of plants in his garden - and plenty of cow-based fertilizer in use.

Oh wait, there's the £94 loss just to keep it real...

SW10

emptyend

My name is Robbie Burns and I have been a successful trader for more than ten years. I've also written the book "The Naked Trader" which turned into a best seller.....up more than £5,000 now......I have so many massive profits.....now up more than £3,000 already on the big spreadbet I have on it and more than £1,000 on the standard trade.

My name is emptyend. I've made so much money from investing over the last 15 years that I've retired....£3,000 here, £5,000 there is just a rounding error in the daily mark to market.

Frankly I think that reading Warren Buffet's annual comments is rather more use than following the TA and spreadbet folks gambling their monthly salary cheques. Berkshire Hathaway's market cap is (I think I noticed from Bloomberg TV earlier) now $203bn.......

...which, I suspect, is the result of proper investing (rather than the boys' equivalent of going off to the bingo or playing the lottery).

Pity so many people seem to take this sort of guff seriously!

fuiseog

The language seems vaguely familiar. It's not Isaacs alter ego by any chance?

fuiseog

Fangorn

I think you all are being a tad unfair here.

There are many ways for those playing the markets to make their money, depending on the market segment they're following, whether it be day trading or wagering over a one to two week period(as many of the short termist City professionals do) to those more inclined to long term compound growth(aka Fund managers/Buffet/LTBH et al).

What works for one investor may not necessarily work for another and I feel it's rather arrogant to criticise someone;s style of approach just because it doesn't fit with your own.

Each methodology has it's own merit imv.

Thunderstorm

In reply to Fangorn (post #4)

Hear, hear! Horses for courses and, looking at his website, this fellow seems to have laid out his track record in some detail too, which is braver than most. http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/trades.htm

"Oh wait, there's the £94 loss just to keep it real..."

Surely the absolute size of someone's gain or loss is irrelevant? Investing prowess should be measured by your long-term CAGR, even if the initial stake size happens to be relatively small.

Although you can't eat CAGRs I accept!

I feel it's rather arrogant to criticise someone;s style of approach just because it doesn't fit with your own.

That ISN'T the reason for my criticism. I don't see why someone who seems to be punting pin money amounts [and taking leverage in order to do even that] is being venerated by the masses simply because he has (shock horror) written a book and has given himself a catchy Evil Kneivel style of name! At least Simon Cawkwell takes some decent sized positions....not the £3k here or £5k there size of investing that frankly is neither here nor there to anyone hoping to make real money!

It is GUFF, as I said!....and sustained only by the hopeful but impoverished folks who hope to get rich quick but have little idea how to do so!!

13th Mar '10

In reply to emptyend (post #6)

He didn't just write a book. He wrote a book about investing and finance that has become a bestseller, by all accounts. That's not an easy thing to do.

Anything that democratises share ownership and widens interest in equity investing in this country is, IMHO, a good thing - if you compare Britain to, say, the US or Australia, shares are a minority sport and that's a shame. Our national obsession is property speculation, rather than investing in companies and productive assets.

I think his efforts should be applauded, not denigrated, but each to their own view.

Anything that democratises share ownership and widens interest in equity investing...
I think his efforts should be applauded

And that's exactly what I can't see here. There are no facts, no opinions, no expressed basis for the trades that are being made. Without that there can be no learning. I don't know anything about the guy - this is the first time I've heard of him. Perhaps he assumes that he's so well known that he needn't bother putting any justification into his post - although that seems unlikely: even the best-known writers express their ideas and reasoning pretty openly

The value of sites such as S'pedia and TMF is that people do express their reasoning, their thinking, their opinions and ideas. Some we agree with, some we don't. But it's a first step in learning and, better still, allows us to enter into discussions and debates.

What I see here is something which comes across as a self-aggrandizing post with nothing of value to anyone except the writer. What am I expected to take from it apart from the suggestion that there is a man who believes he has a mysterious Midas touch that he has no intention of sharing?

I've come across posters who appear to be incredibly successful on bulletin boards before, some I believe because they lay out their thinking and strategies before, during and after the event - including their failures, others I dismiss because they tend to report sucesses after the event, making little public contribution to any of the debate.

From the eidence here, this smacks very much of the latter.

I can see where both you(SW10) and EE are coming from. There are some notable gaps in his methodology that he fails to share - don't get me wrong I have every respect for the approaches the pair of you have (particularly EE on the Oily front).

It's interesting to see the trades that others put on, regardless of the notional size of them. I remember fondly my initial forays into stocktrading at the age of 17 when at school back in the 80's when there was less emphasis on a thorough examination of each and every stock, and more a focus on themes, and companies that seemed to have a decent product niche but for some reason or another were undervalued. Those investment club days were lots of fun.

These days I dont have one specific approach per se, preferring instead to gauge the value of everyone else's inputs and lay down a couple of trades on those ideas I think have most merit. Many of my old favourites have since disappeared - Pilkington glass, now there was a classic traders share. :) But I still focus on the same old stocks, BAE Systems, Glaxo, Vodafone, Utilities and tobacco. But there are so many new corporates to follow that there just isnt enough time to do it all oneself. Now I appreciate a lot of what Evil Knievil says is just guff, but there are the odd gems in there now and again. I concur that there is indeed this seeming necessity these days to twitter this, facebook that, and bulletin board one's every investing move, much of it is valueless, but sometimes, just sometimes, there's gold in them there hills!

In reply to Thunderstorm (post #7)

On the contrary. He wrote a book called "The Naked Trader", subtitled "How ANYONE can make money trading shares". He thus showed some understanding of finance, a sharp eye for what sells in the world of journalism (as an ex-editor on BSkyB I believe) and a good understanding of marketing via populist headlines and titles.....and thus his book appealed to the large army of people who like to delude themselves that they, too, can all get rich quick.

Had it been a decade earlier, perhaps he'd have written a book on property with similar results?

I believe that he also charges around £500 a time to attend "seminars".

Don't get me wrong - it is smart business and a good idea....for him. But, other than the sort of basic education in finance provided by countless other texts (albeit without catchy JamieOliveresque titles) which of course has some use, AFAICT he is mainly adept at self-promotion and not especially at investing.

Nothing wrong with that either, of course. Martin Lewis is similarly excellent in that department but I suspect that his "Money Expert" business provides rather more people with rather more useful information than Mr Burns' does. Any fool can lead an a small army of bulletin board followers into making successions of trades and, especially if operating in small size, one could simply trade around their activity if one wished and appear to be doing something useful. Some have even followed me, from time to time - even without encouragement to do so [though of course I very rarely trade].

Of course, if he happens to have published market-beating results somewhere for a 7 figure portfolio over the last 10 years, then the above would be doing him a disservice. Perhaps someone can point out where this has been done??? Until then, I'm inclined to think (like some late departed property "experts") the main business is flogging the books and seminars, rather than actually making significant amounts from investing.

As they say..."those who can, do....those who can't, teach"........and, in investing, those "who can" are generally to be found cloistered quietly in some sunny tax haven, rather than schlepping over to Middlesex to minister to the needy masses at seminars.

darlocst

14th Mar '10

I first came across Robbie Burns via his column in the Sunday Times, probably around 6/7 years ago. He certainly does seem to have made money consistently in the time I've been looking at his website. Some people might see that itself as reason to be skeptical.

I still look in on his website to see what he is buying/selling but rarely follow him into any trades these days. There is the occasional good idea though.

He used to update his website daily, until a couple of years ago. That meant you could believe in his trading record a bit more, as the trades reported were at most a few hours old,than the bi weekly updates he does now. He started doing seminars around 3 years ago so I guess along with the books its now more important that he maintains his impressive trading performance.

He does seem to report & log all his trades. Crucial bits of info are missing though, % return, total capital invested & the (detailed) logic behind his trades.

I've read his book & it does give a lot more detail on his approach and a lot of it is very sensible stuff and a solid approach to investing. He clearly knows what he is doing and has a methodical, consistent and fairly conservative approach.

A quick look at the internet archive does show he has built up some impressive profits since the website started (around 2002).

2002: http://web.archive.org/web/20021201094449/http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

2003: http://web.archive.org/web/20031207151633/http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

2004: http://web.archive.org/web/20041231012317/http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

2005: http://web.archive.org/web/20051231052728/http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

2006: http://web.archive.org/web/20061223121558/http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071011005220/http://www.frequenttrader.info/p2.html

2008: http://web.archive.org/web/20080730034553rn_1/www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm

He does seem to report & log all his trades. Crucial bits of info are missing though, % return, total capital invested & the (detailed) logic behind his trades.

Yup. I don't dispute that he can make and has made small amounts of money by trading in and out (especially if followers leap onto the same trade as soon as they become aware of it!). AFAICS on a quick look only one of his positions has realised a 5 figure sum though, and then only by holding for 3+ years (Burren).

When you make "returns" of a couple of hundred quid (as many of them seem to be) then matters such as the costs, fees, bid/ask spreads etc all start to impinge (are these netted off?) - and then there is the unanswered (and very important!) question of returns on the capital employed (though I appreciate that this would be difficult to quantify as the amounts invested appear to go up and down and because much of it appears to be leveraged).

Anyway - thats all really.......I don't find it all that impressive - or at all useful! ....even if we do have one or two positions in common from time to time ;-)

Soundbuy

24th Mar '10

Some very illquid stocks are often chosen, punters review site and follow. Hence, for some stocks, rises are inevitable. Sales pitch nowadays for seminars I guess.

Markets... Surprise!! Yes, they are still going up!

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Robbie Burnsie

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