| May "May" Be Massive For > 20%........

29th Apr '13 by flyingbull

29 comments 12217 reads

For the May 2013 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the May competition is midnight on Tuesday 30 April 2013. Results will be posted on this thread asap after the May month end.

Good luck!!!!!

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Flyingbull

Premium Member

29 comments

peterg

1st May '13

Fangorn - was it? I can't see anything in the RNS about transferring to other family members

The speculation I've seen (which is certainly plausible - but unverified) is that the transfer (" he transferred ten million (10,000,000) common shares of USD 0.01 in the Company to a third party, in respect of a repayment in full under a financing arrangement") wasa repayment of a loan made by someone (not necessarily a family member) earlier which was used as part of the divorce settlement.

That may be true, or it may not. Either way, given that Todd still has a great deal of financial interest in the company, and it's just the sort of deal he'd pull, I think it's unlikely that the sale reflects pessimism on Todd's part about the future of GKP - and that the recent pull back is overdone.

Peter

ExTownie

1st May '13

It does say transfer, but when the Chairman / CEO disposes of virtually all of his shares in one transaction, I think this should merit more detail in the RNS.

I remain uncomfortable with this one... Hence GKP down

Fangorn

1st May '13

He still has 250,000 shares and 14 million odd Options.
That's hardly disposing of virtually ALL of his interest! :)

ExTownie

1st May '13

I don't take much comfort from him only selling 97.5% of his shares, and I'm not clear if he is in a position to sell his options if he wanted to - i.e. has he disposed of virtually everything he is able to?

ET

Fangorn

1st May '13

He didn't SELL them. The RNS is clear - it was a transfer.
And he still has significant skin in the game to boot. I really don't see the issue here frankly.

And the remaining options are out of the money at current prices as far as I'm aware so wont be disposed of.

ExTownie

1st May '13

OK we'll see.....

kenobi

1st May '13

ok, so he transferred them to pay back a debt of loan shares ?

so effectively he sold them some time back, now today, he could have chosen to pay back or give his shares presumably ? If he was really confident about the company would he not have found another way to fund this paying back ? As Extownie says he got rid of (sold or transferred ) the vast majority of his shares. The fact that he has millions of options for which he's paid nothing and are underwater, doesn't say anything about his confidence in the company does it ?

This may well turn out to be a buying opportunity, I'm tempted, but I can understand ExTownie's concerns.

K

peterg

1st May '13

If he was really confident about the company would he not have found another way to fund this paying back ?

If the story is true then he presumably didn't have £17m down the back of the sofa when he needed the loan, so he probably doesn't have it now either! - I guess he's not a high roller like you, K :-)

Also if true, it probably suggests that he thought the SP would be higher by now, otherwise why not just hand over/sell the shares at the time? Clearly he called that wrong - like a lot of people. But it doesn't mean that his expectations have changed, it may just be that there was a time limit on the loan.

He's not someone I feel totally relaxed about as CEO of one of my investments, but in my view given the amount of OIP GKP is a bet on a solution that gets it to market, which has little to do with TK, and a lot to do with higher forces in the region. The indications are that positive moves are occuring in that direction. It may all go pear shaped, but I'm happy the odds are worth a holding.

Peter

kenobi

1st May '13

Peter,

jokes/sarcasm aside re whether he can afford it,
he seems to have sold the vast majority, did he give his wife 97% of his wealth ? but he sold 97% of his shares, ok maybe in part due to bad timing. You may be right, I can understand why Extownie is suspicious of this move.
It only takes some people to worry about this to put pressure on the price, which is perhaps what has happened,

K

Fangorn

1st May '13

Sums up my understanding of the Stock transfer in a nutshell.

It is, however, only another poster's interpretation of what has gone on. Rns's seem to follow a logical path however.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&threshold=50&it=le&action=detail&id=10554029

Hi everyone,

I have decided to post much less frequently lately due to the persistent friction, animosity and negativity that seems often to pervade this discussion board.

However, in keeping with many on here, I was VERY disappointed by the distinct lack of detail that accompanied this morning’s RNS regarding TK’s TRANSFER (not sale) of 10 Million shares. I have therefore looked into the history of Director shareholdings RNS’s and attempted to make sense of what has happened. Please note though that this is only my’ interpretation’ of events and it may not therefore be the full story!

The Kozel v Kozel divorce story in the Independent on Sunday on 24 April 2012 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/kozel-vs-kozel-2274016.html included the following:

“Gulf Keystone Petroleum LLC (GKP LLC) owns 5.25 per cent of GKP's stock. The named shareholders of LLC are Mr Kozel and Ali Al-Qabandi, the business development director at GKP.

Mrs Kozel alleges that her husband owns between 40 and 50 per cent of GKP LLC, worth up to $60m depending on how the shares are performing. However, Mr Kozel says that although he is named as owning 40 per cent, the majority of that stake is held on behalf of his father and brothers.”

***I think this must have prompted further investigation and, as HWD has highlighted earlier, a subsequent RNS on 13 June 2011 revealed further details of the make-up of Gulf Keystone LLC’s holding ***.

“Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (AIM: GKP) announces that after examining changes in the Company's share register for the month of May 2011 and making subsequent inquiries that Gulf Keystone Petroleum Co. LLC ("GKP LLC") transferred legal title to 11,600,000 common shares of US$0.01 each in the Company ("Common Shares") to Todd Kozel, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and 4,000,000 Common Shares to Ali Al-Qabandi, Business Development Director at nil cost (the "Transfer"). A further 20,400,000 Common Shares were transferred to Gibca Ltd and 4,000,000 Common Shares to Ibrahim Al-Khaldi.

Mr. Kozel has informed the Company that the shares transferred to him by GKP LLC are beneficially owned by his brothers and father ("Family)" and he is obliged to transfer the shares to his Family as soon as he is able to. Under the terms of his ongoing divorce proceedings he is not currently able to do so but will keep the Company updated of any transfer. Pending transfer Mr. Kozel has the authority to vote the shares.”

*** So, this seems to confirm that TK held those 11.6 million shares (actually 29% of the shares that GKP LLC had) on behalf of his family ***.

Then, in the RNS of 17 January 2012,
http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/director-s-shareholdings/201201171603247184V/ we were told that Ashley Kozel was to receive 17,433,433 shares under the Divorce settlement.

>>> Very importantly, it stated “The Settlement Shares include 11,600,000 common shares, which were the subject of the Company's announcement dated 13 June 2011.” <<<

So, it appears that TK was transferring 11.6 million shares to Ashley Kozel which were really owned by the Kozel “family” as, in TK’s own words, “the majority of that stake is held >>> GKP, PLEASE TAKE NOTE – we need RNS’s that are clear and comprehensive, not ones which leave shareholders scratching their heads and wondering what has really happened! A fall of 7p today from an already very low SP could perhaps have been avoided by thinking more carefully about the wording of the RNS!!! <<<

AIMHO and please DYOR,
GLA, scaramouche

ExTownie

1st May '13

Interesting thanks Fangorn. Unfortunately I am not in a position to judge whether that is a balanced view or the rose-tinted view of someone with a large position. I suspect the 173 people who recced it would like it to be true, and perhaps it is.

If it is the case then it suggests that he hasn't become pessimistic about GKP's prospects in the last week or two, but it still begs the question of why someone of considerable wealth who knows most about GKP's fortunes seems to be minimising his position by disposing of what he can. There must be plenty of small investors with more shares (although not options) than the Chairman / CEO, which must ring some alarm bells.

Interesting to see where this is at the end of May....

ET

emptyend

2nd May '13

And the remaining options are out of the money at current prices as far as I'm aware so wont be disposed of.

I am unfortunately familiar with the concept of out of the money options held by management and directors ;-(

Basically I come down on Ex-Townie's side of this debate with his comment that TK has sold pretty much everything that he can actually sell (whether or not he received any cash for the sale or alternatively was settling a debt).

Not only is there no way at all for management to sell their options (because they often lapse on leaving) but, if they are a long way out of the money, they are virtually valueless.

Of course it is perfectly possible (especially with divorces) for management to be so cash strapped as to necessitate the sale of stock in a company they believe strongly in - but it doesn't happen often and AFAICR it is extremely rare for the key man at a company to make such a disposal.

As to the central topic of this thread, I'm a bit late to enter so will "take the 5th". But it does seem to me that there are quite strong headwinds for the general market at present and, with the sector still remaining out of favour, it will take some unusually good news to make a +20% monthly return stick - especially if the market decides to make the seasonal trade associated with May.

Fangorn

2nd May '13

I can appreciate your, and Extownie's, reservations...There's plenty to have issues with

Of course it is perfectly possible (especially with divorces) for management to be so cash strapped as to necessitate the sale of stock in a company they believe strongly in - but it doesn't happen often and AFAICR it is extremely rare for the key man at a company to make such a disposal.

This paragraph sums it up for me. Despite being fairly well remunerated in the first instance it is amazing how most of it will go fast each year such that a one off hit of £17m in a divorce settlement isn't going to be funded from one's petty cash or rainy day fund. If it's true that he used pledged family shares to pay off the divorce as Scara suspects, then I really see no issue with this latest transfer - it's still in the family after all.

My personal suspicion is that the KRG is behind the scenes sorting out the BIR's and sifting through the "Takeover offers" for both GKP,Genel,Afren and the other smaller Kurdi players. The CC is merely holding up the process imo.Once this is sorted we should see some movement on teh M&A front.

As is the case where big money is involved there are plenty of shenanigans. Time will tell who's been telling the porkies of that I've no doubt.

p.s As an aside what are you thoughts on the Ivy medical news and the rather large dilution for such a small amount of cash various individuals are putting in - 1.2 millions shares for a £6000 debt for example.

emptyend

2nd May '13

As an aside what are you thoughts on the Ivy medical news and the rather large dilution

Unfortunately this is the sort of thing that can happen when a company that is short of both management and cash finds itself between a rock and a hard place. The death of the founding shareholder was one thing - but the problems crystallised a year or so later on the premature and sudden death of the CEO in November 2011 who, it seems, hadn't been great at record-keeping or reporting everything back to the board....and there was no obvious "number 2" with knowledge of the business. Remaining directors were mostly mid-70s and not equipped to take over. In short they had completely run out of attractive options.

Ex-post what they should have done is raise a good deal more cash when the founder was still alive - but they didn't do so, primarily because he didn't want himself to be diluted!

Thanks for mentioning it - for some reason (and I'm investigating why but suspect a problem at the nominee!) I hadn't received the Notice. FWIW I still have faith in the product - but it is a salutory lesson re the difficulties of product development and authorisation when one is operating on a shoestring.....and the problems that a dominant founder can store up.

Hopefully the new management have sufficient incentive and skill to make something of the company and drive it forward.

Fangorn

2nd May '13

Thanks for mentioning it - for some reason (and I'm investigating why but suspect a problem at the nominee!) I hadn't received the Notice

I only heard because I was involved in the placing they had a while back so my holding outside of the nominee meant they had my address. As for those held at TD, not a whisper from the nominee either.

Still have faith in the product myself as a family member benefited from the use of the formula so many years ago...

Nursing a sizeable loss on this one. Never had much luck with Biotechs. Note to self - stick to likes of Glaxo, Astra, Roche, Pfizer.

Will be interesting to see if new management can turn it around.

emptyend

2nd May '13

Still have faith in the product myself as a family member benefited from the use of the formula so many years ago...

...mmmm....it seems a real shame that it has been as tough as it has. I knew a fair bit about the testing process - but I guess what it shows is that the deficiencies of management (which was always relatively weak, IMO) will trump even a good product. It didn't need a massive market share to succeed - and might have saved the NHS an absolute fortune - but it did need to get a licence and to progress beyond compassionate use only.... Hey ho....

Fangorn

2nd May '13

It required quite a brutal dietary regime to be adhered to , in conjunction with this "concoction". I don't think JC however envisaged his treatment being taken in conjunction with chemotherapy. That route was a disappointment.

The strict dietary requirement meant that most "patients" would have failed to respond - thus giving the impression the treatment wasn't working. So no surprise they've gone in the direction they have.

Just hope they can finally make some money of it , both for JC's legacy, but also the rest of us.

emptyend

2nd May '13

Wandering way off topic here but, AIUI, it was never intended to be taken with chemo - and indeed if chemo had started I believe that the outcomes were worse. My original hopes were that it would become used as a cheap first-line treatment - it was never going to be a miracle cure for advanced situations - just a treatment for early stage prostate cancer and others, with fewer side-effects than chemo etc.

I suspect thats enough on a topic which isn't even investable currently....though if it was May 2015 who knows? (no hydrocarbons to be found though!)

Fangorn

2nd May '13

Back on GKP....

Another post from Scaramouche..

Subject Carts and Horses....
Votes for this Posting Voted 18 times.
Message
Apologies for the long post, but there is a fair bit to cover…

To be honest, I am rather shocked by the confrontational aspect of many of the posts on here in the last few days, involving ‘seasoned’ investors who presumably want GKP and its share price to do well but simply have different views about how it might get there! I can only put it down to stress induced by the relentless fall in the share price, but please remember that this is supposed to be a discussion forum, not a bear-pit with incessant #####ing and sniping!

My own view on how best to raise concerns with the company appears to differ from many on here. I simply emailed GKP politely a few days ago to express my concern about the recent poorly-worded Holdings RNS (which IMO needed clarification), and to highlight that shareholders could do with some form of operational update to ensure that we understood exactly what stage the company was at.

I emphasised that the political uncertainties and lengthy court case had already contributed to a very serious decline in the share price, and that shareholders badly needed some form of reassurance.

I have no doubt that many shareholders did much the same, and it seems to me that today’s RNS was put out by GKP to try to refocus the mind on what people here are actually invested in - a company with a significant share in several world-class assets, one of which (Shaikan) is on the verge of large-scale Production in perhaps the world’s most under-developed and low-cost oil frontier… something which will surely appeal to many of the world’s super-majors.

So, why have I used the title I have in this post”?

Well, it is mainly because I get the distinct impression that some people are expecting certain key events to happen before it is actually possible for them to do so - in effect ‘putting the Cart before the Horse’.

1) Today’s RNS makes it very clear that PRODUCTION cannot start in earnest until several key factors come together.

The taps are currently turned off in Kurdistan due to the long-running dispute with Baghdad, and will remain so until first there is a Green Light from the KRG for all companies to start exporting again. To do this, the oil companies need also to be assured that they will receive payment, something which has even handicapped Genel and other contractors until the last month or so.

And in GKP’s case, they will also need a market to sell their oil to (probably the local one, when capacity is freed up by Genel and DNO exporting); the early production facilities to be in place; pipeline infrastructure to be available; and the FDP to be fully agreed by the KRG.

Indeed, to me, the last one is perhaps the most vital missing piece of the jigsaw, on which the whole future of Shaikan and GKP rests.

From today’s RNS: “On 27 January 2013, Gulf Keystone, as operator, submitted a Field Development Plan ("FDP") to the Shaikan Block Management Committee. The Company is in constructive talks with the appropriate regulatory authorities concerning their feedback on the proposed way forward for the development of the Shaikan field, which was declared a major commercial discovery in August 2012”.

Those TALKS must surely entail to whom responsibility for the large-scale development of the ‘Jewel of Kurdistan’ and its 400,000+ bopd potential should be entrusted – and personally, I cannot see it being little old GKP as the asset is far too important for any risk of it going wrong!

So, those continually questioning why GKP have not been producing significant volumes over the last 2 years need perhaps to consider how much the delay has really been down to GKP (and Todd), how much due to the general political situation…. and how much it is on account of the need for the KRG to ensure they get the best jockey and the best horse for such a challenging type of course!

2) Today’s RNS seems to me also to put GKP firmly into the ‘shop window’.

There are mentions of Goldman Sachs report on the future global importance of Shaikan, a reminder that Exxon, Chevron and Total amongst others have entered Kurdistan in relatively recent times, and strong hints that ‘Greater Shaikan’ has an importance way beyond even the figures currently in the public domain – “Shaikan is the largest onshore development worldwide today not in the hands of a major operator. However, we believe that we have only scratched the surface of the true value of our blocks and our ongoing exploration and appraisal activity is expected to result in further upside."

And, at long last, we even hear that there are tentative plans to explore and appraise SHEIKH ADI (in which GKP has an 80% net working interest) –

“… the Company and the Kurdistan Regional Government, its partner in the block UNANIMOUSLY agreed to move to an appraisal programme to appraise Jurassic targets and evaluate the Triassic upside at the 3,500 metres projected depth with the Sheikh Adi-3 appraisal well. Furthermore, we plan to target two additional exploration leads, comprising potential extensions of the Atrush and Swara Tika discoveries, following acquisition of 70 km of additional 2D seismic data.”

In other words, those OIP numbers attributable to GKP are likely to rise pretty sharply and with them our potential price-tag, in a relatively short time-frame. That should tend to focus the minds of prospective suitors, I imagine!

So, in answer to those who expected Takeover interest to have been demonstrated already, I can only conclude that GKP might have previously discouraged potential suitors or buyers been dissuaded until now they had a much clearer idea of what GKP might be selling. Irrespective, this particular horse does now seem to be on a very firm footing, and to me the RNS certainly suggests that the company is on the right track. IMHO.

3) I note the furore over the location set for the AGM. I agree that it might have been preferable for it to be held in Paris, but I do not share the views of those whose main objective appears to be to hold the CEO exclusively to account for the lamentable state of the share price, and seek to get him over a barrel.

My own view is that GKP is at least making it possible for most interested shareholders to attend an Investor day in London on 4 July 2013, 3 weeks before the AGM. This will enable them to obtain answers to many of their questions BEFORE deciding which way to cast their votes on all the forthcoming AGM resolutions.

It could have been the other way round (AGM, then presentation), or people being asked to vote on the spur of the moment and in the rather heated amphitheatre of the AGM itself. Personally, I would much rather the chance to be able to think about what I hear than be expected to make some kind of rash and ill-considered judgement.

My suspicion too is that the Investor presentation has been carefully timed with the expectation that the Court case verdict will have been delivered by then, and that, with better news on the production front, the share price will be very much higher.

If so, I imagine Todd will be fairly comfortable attending and facing his inquisitors- and, if not, well I rather suspect that there will be a motion appearing on the AGM agenda anyway, in relation to his current role, and that the vote will be……....
well, let’s wait and see, because I too might be putting the cart before the horse!

4) Finally, after careful consideration, I do think that perhaps the time has come for the Chairman and CEO roles to be separated, regardless of what transpires in the next two months, as I note that Todd himself apparently acknowledged in his interview with the Daily Telegraph on 28 May 2012.

– “Mr Kozel, who is currently also executive chairman, said Gulf Keystone planned to appoint a separate chairman, in line with best practice”.
I feel that it would surely be both timely and in the best interests of good Corporate Governance, and perhaps help to allay some of the current concerns expressed by many shareholders on this board.

BUT I would also be extremely cautious about moves to get rid of him altogether, as that might have unforeseen consequences and serve only to upset the apple-cart… to the benefit of whoever might be behind Excalibur and the relentless downward pressure on the share price since this seemingly spurious Court Case commenced nearly 7 months ago... and therefore to our collective detriment. .

In conclusion, for now I will continue to back exactly the same horse that I have backed for the last 3.5 years, but I would prefer for him to be “reined in” a little to avoid some of the excesses we have witnessed in recent times.

AIMHO and please DYOR

GLA, scaramouche

P.S. Woody – many thanks for the earlier 'vote of support', but I don’t believe that ANYONE can realistically represent shareholders with such widely differing views and do justice to the questions that they might feel need to be asked at an AGM - certainly not me! My views are my own, not anyone else’s.

flyingbull

2nd Jun '13

LRL did well in May with well ZJS5 flowing. It was considered "Commercial" but due to

the low flow rate, how commercial it is remains to be demonstrated, I suspect. Congratulations
to Pro_better and Robbo35 for winning the >20% Up competition with the top score of 32%
rise in LRL.

Congratulations to Ewm55 and Fangorn for winning the >20% Down competition with AEX
recording a miserable 39% reduction. Plenty of food for thought in the recent Interim Management
Statement in May.

The two set of competition results are shown below:

">20% Up" Competition Results:
1.9% Average

31.5%	LRL	Pro_better	Advfn
31.5%	LRL	Robbo35	Advfn
22.5%	AOI	Casanare	Fool
22.5%	AOI	Thaiinvest	Fool
17.9%	TRP	Pal44	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Petergray	Fool
16.7%	GKP	Saggy101	Fool
16.7%	GKP	Carcosa	Fool
16.7%	GKP	Fangorn	Stockopedia
16.7%	GKP	Proselenes	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Glluckett2	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Jimmymcnulty	Advfn
15.7%	MOIL	ChristianF12	Advfn
7.7%	EOG	Big7ime	Advfn
5.2%	LGO	Angeln1	Advfn
1.1%	FEP	Fireplace22	Advfn
0.0%	GBP	Markc2010	Fool
0.0%	GBP	Ohisay	Fool
-1.4%	COP	Ewm55	Fool
-2.2%	FPM	Bomfin	Advfn
-3.1%	FAST	Flyingswan	Advfn
-3.9%	TPL	Dotnethero	Fool
-3.9%	TPL	Calalily	Advfn
-4.0%	EME	Btgman	Advfn
-4.8%	SMDR	Fleecednflogged	Fool
-4.8%	SMDR	Thegreatgeraldo	Fool
-5.7%	MOG	Luminoso	Fool
-7.8%	SER	flyingbull	Fool
-11.4%	BLVN	Wshak	Fool
-12.4%	AMER	Bigwavedave	Advfn
-14.3%	GOO	Peterbill	Fool
-14.3%	GOO	Davethechef	Advfn
-14.9%	LOGP	GHH	Fool
-18.2%	MAGP	Oblomof	Fool
-39.3%	AEX	Eastheath	Fool
-39.3%	AEX	dbfromgb	Advfn

">20% Down" Competition Results:

2.2% Average

-39.3%	AEX	Ewm55	Fool
-39.3%	AEX	Fangorn	Stockopedia
-9.6%	RRL	flyingbull	Fool
-9.6%	RRL	Angeln1	Advfn
-7.8%	SER	Bigwavedave	Advfn
-7.3%	CHAR	GHH	Fool
-7.3%	CHAR	Petergray	Fool
-7.3%	CHAR	Ohisay	Fool
-6.3%	WSX	Casanare	Fool
-3.1%	FAST	Wshak	Fool
-2.9%	PMG	Fleecednflogged	Fool
-2.9%	PMG	Saggy101	Fool
-2.9%	PMG	ChristianF12	Advfn
-1.3%	DGO	Peterbill	Fool
0.0%	PET	Pro_better	Advfn
3.0%	ESSR	Calalily	Advfn
5.1%	FRR	Davethechef	Advfn
9.8%	NEW	Oblomof	Fool
9.8%	NEW	Luminoso	Fool
15.7%	MOIL	Proselenes	Advfn
16.7%	UEN	Jimmymcnulty	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Eastheath	Fool
16.7%	GKP	Carcosa	Fool
16.7%	GKP	Extownie	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Btgman	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Flyingswan	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Robbo35	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Pal44	Advfn
16.7%	GKP	Big7ime	Advfn
17.9%	TRP	Markc2010	Fool

May "May" be Massive for > 20%........

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Flyingbull

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