| May Or May Not For >20%.......

26th Apr '12 by flyingbull

17 comments 9400 reads

In general, January and February this year seemed to be quite good for oil stocks whilst March and April were not....perhaps "Sell in May and go away" have arrived early this year and May could turn out to be more positive this year?!

For the May 2012 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the May competition is midnight on Monday 30 April 2012.

Good luck!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

17 comments

emptyend

27th Apr '12

Tedious, I know, but it will have to be SOCO International (LON:SIA) for +20%. See my previous 15,000 comments for reasons.

And if nothing happens in May (or on April 30th) then you can put me down for June too.

I'm not going to pick any individual company for the down 20%. But a clue as to a group that I think may struggle in May can be found here.

Fangorn

27th Apr '12

GKP for the 20%,

BOR for 20% down. All the Falkland Island Oilies operating in the South are on to a hiding to nothing imv.

Leekgo

27th Apr '12

I rarely enter but will go for PCI this month for up 20% on the basis of news of proposed changes to the stand-off over Italian drilling,

No down for me.

EE, i see your skepticism re Falklands Explorers. The article you linked too gave me the impression you think they might fall on more Argentinian trouble? Down is statistically more likely than up of course on the drilling front, but is there much reason to think Argentinian noise will impact the SP?

Leek

emptyend

27th Apr '12

The article you linked too gave me the impression you think they might fall on more Argentinian trouble? Down is statistically more likely than up of course on the drilling front, but is there much reason to think Argentinian noise will impact the SP?

IMO people are too complacent on political risk re Falklands - that is all. Nothing to do with drilling (though initial BOR results seem relatively inconclusive, considering the price moves in BOR/FOGL relative to their pre-drill levels).

The UK isn't particularly well-positioned strategically, IMO, given the logistical issues.

I'd also observe that the Falklands seems to attract more than its "fair share" of publicity, given the fact that it is a new and extremely remote basin. That may all turn out to be well-justified if Loligo comes in anywhere near the hopes of some - but if it doesn't then things will look a good deal iffier, IMO. I'd be happy to have a small punt on Loligo, but probably not from these levels.

Impvesta

27th Apr '12

Up Aminex (AEX) for me please. Hopefully the Ntorya 1 gas pay testing will be completed in May.

No down.

Impvesta

AnonymousUser3343

27th Apr '12

May

20% gain during May Magnolia Petroleum (LON:MAGP) Magnolia Petroleum
Thought – Long term I really fancy this US O&G firm to be something special, however during May I feel this could also be a fair candidate for the 20% gain with hopefully some completed well results being released. Also, with the COO visiting London for a week mid May to get the Magnolia Petroleum story out, a shot in the arm could also result from this.

20% loss during May Matra Petroleum (LON:MTA) Matra Petroleum
Thought - The news of a new strategic investor and a raising of £4.6m was excellent news for the company and improves the investment outlook imo, however the share price has increased 200% during April and with the amount of shares in issue now raising to just under 2b, I fear it might be a fair candidate for the 20% loss in May.

peterdm

27th Apr '12

Been watching JKX for a while, it's bumped around a bit over the last year or so but looks ready to start moving forward again. 20% in view.
Hope ee is right on Soco. Didn't move much at all in April, hopefully the share buy backs will help it regain some ground, or that some game-changing development comes through. Would like some money for JKX!
No down.

Proselenes

28th Apr '12

IMO people are too complacent on political risk re Falklands - that is all. Nothing to do with drilling (though initial BOR results seem relatively inconclusive, considering the price moves in BOR/FOGL relative to their pre-drill levels).

The UK isn't particularly well-positioned strategically, IMO, given the logistical issues.

I'd also observe that the Falklands seems to attract more than its "fair share" of publicity, given the fact that it is a new and extremely remote basin. That may all turn out to be well-justified if Loligo comes in anywhere near the hopes of some - but if it doesn't then things will look a good deal iffier, IMO. I'd be happy to have a small punt on Loligo, but probably not from these levels.

Well, the UK government have already replied saying that Argentina has no jurisdiction at all and so their threatening letters should be and will be ignored.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9218504/Foreign-Office-letter-to-banks-over-Argentinas-Falklands-oil-threats.html

FOGL have already taken legal advice and this corresponds with the UK governments view that there is no jurisdiction at all - its legally baseless. It could be a problem if you have assets in Argentina - but as none of the Falkland explorers do - there is no threat at all.

Those that are not invested in the Falklands will continue to run stories of whatever lies Buenos Aires deems suitable to put out - the Argentine government is very happy their "PR" campaign keeps getting picked up by those that disklike Falklands oil companies and want to, lets say, dismiss them and their prospects. Such a terrible shame that UK media is supporting the Argentines by running their lies.

The Argentines have no decent army, no navy and no air force. Owing to the terrible state of their nation they have spent nothing on the military for 30 years and pose no threat at all, which is why they have resorted to playing the media with baseless threats which have no legal back up.

For sure in May an Argentine Kangeroo court is going to rule in favour of the Argentine government and declare all sorts of things - but the net effect of this will be - nothing - and everyone knows that now. Their verdict will only be relevent in Argentina and guess what - all Falklands companies have no assets in Argentina and do not rely on Argentine for anything.

Probably in May the pro-Argentine elements of the UK media will disrespect the memories of those that lost their lives 30 years ago and yet again run whatever lies the Argentine government PR team wishes to throw out.

If you look at the bigger picture they are nationilising YPF and stealing it from an International company, this will backfire big time on them and hopefully will result in them being kicked out of the G20. Already the Washington Post (which often leaks the feelings of the US government) is suggesting that pro-UK Chile should be promoted into the G20 and Argentina should be kicked out.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/04/23/washington-post-suggests-replacing-argentina-with-chile-at-the-g20

All of the permanent members of the UN security council have "islands and terriories" in various places that are claimed by others - every one of them has a veto vote, including the UK. Which is why Argentina is powerless - setting precedent with the UK would have a big negative influence on Chinese, Russian, American, French etc... claims to various parcels of land all over the world - and they are not going to do anything.

Which is why Argentina has only one thing it can do, lie and bad mouth to the media and hope that plenty of suckers are ready to run their stories - which is seems there is, for now. However, how many times will they cry wolf before even those that run their stories get bored and starts to ignore them..........

marben100

28th Apr '12

Never mind the political posturing. The hard fact that Falklands investors have to consider is the cost of installing infrastructure in such a remote and environmentally hostile region. Obviously that cost is compounded by making the sensible assumption that co-operation from "nearby" countries (Argentina, Brazil) cannot be expected. I put "nearby" in quotes because even with co-operation, the distances involved are large and logistics difficult.

Clearly, explo. minnows will not be able to fund the necessary multi-$bn investment themselves. Even with explo. success, potential partners are likely to strike a very hard bargain, given the massive investment and risk they will be expected to undertake to develop discoveries - and the very long timeframes involved. Does anyone seriously expect any oil/LNG/condensate to be shipped out of the Falklands in much under 10 years?

Maybe good for a quick 20% upside/downside speculative trade (aided by frequent optimistic BB posting in an attempt to nudge/support the SP) but not what I'd call an "investment".

Proselenes

28th Apr '12

LC says Q2 2016 for first oil.

But of course, lots of people anti-Falklands who have missed out on so much profit so far, who first said there was no oil and who now, having lost that one, claim its decades to production - know much more than very rich and powerful Falklands businessmen of course, men who are involved in building a new deepwater port on the Islands to ensure logistics is no problem at all.

http://www.qatar-tribune.com/data/20120402/content.asp?section=Business2_3

..........“Hopefully, the first barrel of Falklands oil will come out in the second quarter of 2016,” Lewis Clifton, managing director of Byron Marine, told AFP................

marben100

28th Apr '12

Hmmm... would that be this Lewis Clifton? http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/final/darwin_clifton.pdf

"Hopefully..." just about says it all.

For avoidance of doubt, I am anything but "anti-Falklands" [my step-brotehr served there], but I do wonder what the prospects are for investors in smallcap. oilies there, for the reasons I've stated. I wish genuine investors every success but have no time for those who seek to take advantage of inexperienced investors/speculators.

emptyend

29th Apr '12

But of course, lots of people anti-Falklands who have missed out on so much profit so far

I think you would do very much better to hold your tongue and stick to the facts, instead of making yourself look an idiot:

Sure those who were in at under 60p on the latest dip are showing a decent m-t-m profiit.....but there are plenty of others who are well under water to date. Of course if you meant some other company, then you should have been more specific - but there are more whose investors have lost money than have made money so far.

As you know, I think there is a reasonable case for having a punt on some of the Falklands wells, if this can be put on at the right price. But it doesn't mean that one should gaily ignore timelines, logistics or politics - all of which seem likely to be much more adverse than the bulls would have people believe.

flyingbull

30th Apr '12

The monthly oil stock competition for May is still open. Deadline for entries "midnight today" on Monday 30 April 2012.

rgds,
fb

Via Lactea

30th Apr '12

Hi FB.

Up VPP (Valiant Petroleum). Two drill results due in May.

Down SIA (Soco International). Mid-May should see Interim Management Statement.

Thanks.

StrollingMolby

30th Apr '12

Hi FB,

For me I'll take Genel Energy (LON:GENL) for the up competition, and Nighthawk Energy (LON:HAWK) for the down.

Cheers,
SM

drowsy

30th Apr '12

Hi FB,

up AFR

down AEX

thanks

flyingbull

1st Jun '12

It's highly unusual for a Canadian stock to win the Up competition.
AOI (TSX) did just that with a massive 93.4% gain during the May mayhem!
Congratulations to the gang of six: Casanare, Chriswalden, Highcommissoner,
Jpgh, Marty51 and Thaiinvest!!!!!!

The Down competition was an easy one for the month of May.
CHAR dropped the most with 52.3%. Congratulations to Ghaon and Marty51!!

Interesting to note AOI's discovery is in onshore East Africa whereas CHAR's
dry well is in offshore West Africa……..

If you see any significant errors in the results, please let me know by email.
I'll issue the correct results if necessary.

The two set of competition results are shown below.

>20% UP Competition Results:

-5.5% Average

93.4%	AOI(TSX)	Casanare	Fool
93.4%	AOI(TSX)	Chriswalden	Fool
93.4%	AOI(TSX)	Highcommissioner	Advfn
93.4%	AOI(TSX)	Jpgh	Fool
93.4%	AOI(TSX)	Marty51	Advfn
93.4%	AOI(TSX)	Thaiinvest	Fool
64.1%	MAGP	Eliasjones	Stockopedia
64.1%	MAGP	Mroz	Advfn
16.7%	SGI(TSX)	Ghh	Fool
13.6%	FEP	Rowanbud	Advfn
13.6%	FEP	Ducatiman	Advfn
11.6%	KEA	Eric76	Advfn
2.1%	FOGL	Proselenes	Fool
2.1%	FOGL	Yossa123	Fool
2.1%	FOGL	Johnnylite	Fool
2.1%	FOGL	Eastheath	Fool
2.1%	FOGL	Ironpyrites	Fool
2.1%	FOGL	Treblebob	Fool
2.1%	FOGL	Lovegod	Advfn
-0.5%	DEO	Foolishdeciple	Fool
-2.0%	MMT(TSX)	Thegreatgeraldo	Fool
-2.4%	NEW	Luminoso	Fool
-2.4%	NEW	Snowman88	Advfn
-6.4%	SIA	Need4speed200	Fool
-6.4%	SIA	Peterbill	Fool
-6.4%	SIA	Ee	Stockopedia
-7.2%	EME	Kamose	Advfn
-8.4%	SEA	Knightwatchman	Fool
-9.1%	FRR	Don77	Advfn
-9.6%	BPC	Saggy101	Fool
-10.1%	XEL	Zetaboy	Fool
-10.1%	XEL	Jimarilo	Fool
-10.1%	XEL	Wezzy	Advfn
-10.1%	XEL	Reidy66	Advfn
-10.6%	GENL	Strollingmolby	Stockopedia
-11.7%	COP	Ewm55	Fool
-12.6%	TOM	Oilyrag	Advfn
-12.6%	TOM	Mostro	Advfn
-13.7%	AFR	Drowsy	Stockopedia
-15.2%	WZR(TSX)	Sporazene	Fool
-15.2%	WZR(TSX)	Wistman	Fool
-15.2%	WZR(TSX)	Gray1107	Fool
-15.2%	WZR(TSX)	Sandoval	Advfn
-15.2%	WZR(TSX)	Closetinvestor	Advfn
-17.6%	GKP	Hhhold	Fool
-17.6%	GKP	Lowersharpnose	Fool
-17.6%	GKP	Fangorn	Stockopedia
-18.0%	AMER	Carroll	Advfn
-18.0%	AMER	Chacobite	Advfn
-22.2%	AEX	Impvesta	Stockopedia
-23.4%	TRAP	Sawney	Fool
-25.4%	JKX	Peterdm	Stockopedia
-25.5%	PCI	Leekgo	Stockopedia
-28.4%	CAZA	Des12345	Advfn
-28.4%	LGO	Pandachops	Advfn
-28.4%	LGO	Withoutt	Advfn
-29.7%	MOIL	Flyingbull	Fool
-29.7%	EXI	Scruttocks	Fool
-29.7%	EXI	Glasowegianprof	Fool
-30.2%	VPP	Fleecednflogged	Stockopedia
-30.7%	BLVN	Hywel	Fool
-31.2%	SGG	Liqudmillionaire	Advfn
-33.3%	GOO	Dunnsriverfalls	Advfn
-37.4%	RRL	Fergusfog	Fool
-37.4%	RRL	Robs5	Fool
-38.6%	TPL (TSX)	Tux222	Fool
-38.6%	TPL (TSX)	Gary1966	Fool
-38.7%	IAE	Oilschmoil	Fool
-44.0%	SLG(TSX)	Wshak	Fool
-46.9%	RMP	Snurkle1	Advfn
-46.9%	RMP	Crowned	Advfn
-46.9%	RMP	Ghaon	Advfn
-59.9%	BEH	Tournesol2	Fool


>20% Down Competition Results:

-17.0%	Average

-52.3%	CHAR	Ghaon	Advfn
-52.3%	CHAR	Marty51	Advfn
-46.9%	RMP	Flyingbull	Fool
-37.4%	RRL	Fergusfog	Fool
-33.3%	GOO	Peterbill	Fool
-33.3%	GOO	Pandachops	Advfn
-33.3%	GOO	Mostro	Advfn
-33.3%	GOO	Carroll	Advfn
-33.3%	GOO	Rowanbud	Advfn
-28.6%	PMG	Saggy101	Fool
-28.6%	PMG	Robs5	Fool
-28.6%	PMG	Ghh	Fool
-28.4%	LGO	Yossa123	Fool
-27.6%	SLE	Mroz	Advfn
-23.6%	HAWK	Strollingmolby	Stockopedia
-23.2%	VIY	Chacobite	Advfn
-22.2%	AEX	Wshak	Fool
-22.2%	AEX	Tournesol2	Fool
-22.2%	AEX	Drowsy	Stockopedia
-18.8%	SMDR	Sporazene	Fool
-18.8%	SMDR	Luminoso	Fool
-17.6%	GKP	Proselenes	Fool
-17.6%	GKP	Tux222	Fool
-17.6%	GKP	Eastheath	Fool
-17.6%	GKP	Ewm55	Fool
-17.6%	GKP	Liqudmillionaire	Advfn
-16.8%	HOIL	Need4speed200	Fool
-15.6%	HRN(TSX)	Eric76	Advfn
-15.3%	BOR	Ironpyrites	Fool
-15.3%	BOR	Jpgh	Fool
-15.3%	BOR	Gray1107	Fool
-15.3%	BOR	Hywel	Fool
-15.3%	BOR	Fangorn	Stockopedia
-15.3%	BOR	Wezzy	Advfn
-15.0%	DGO	Kamose	Advfn
-10.1%	XEL	Oilschmoil	Fool
-10.0%	XTR	Scruttocks	Fool
-9.6%	BPC	Withoutt	Advfn
-9.6%	BPC	Crowned	Advfn
-9.6%	BPC	Reidy66	Advfn
-8.4%	DES	Dunnsriverfalls	Advfn
-8.4%	DES	Snurkle1	Advfn
-7.6%	PTR	Des12345	Advfn
-7.6%	PTR	Don77	Advfn
-6.4%	SIA	Fleecednflogged	Stockopedia
-6.4%	SIA	Closetinvestor	Advfn
-0.5%	DEO	Foolishdeciple	Fool
2.1%	FOGL	Gary1966	Fool
11.8%	MTA	Eliasjones	Stockopedia
11.8%	MTA	Snowman88	Advfn
13.6%	FEP	Hhhold	Fool
13.6%	FEP	Sandoval	Advfn
13.6%	FEP	Oilyrag	Advfn

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May or May Not for >20%.......

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Flyingbull

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