Does this calc include customer deposits as I can't understand it ? Look along the net debt line at bottom of stock report for the £2bn figure .
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Does this calc include customer deposits as I can't understand it ? Look along the net debt line at bottom of stock report for the £2bn figure .
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Cash is £2bn. Pretty much all banks will hold significant amounts of cash and short-term deposits to manage their liquidity.
Customer deposits would be considered a liability - in this case deposits are just short of £15bn.
Due to tight regulations, banks are going to have fairly decent balance sheets and gearing in most should be around 10-15%.
In the case of Metro Bank (LON:MTRO) , it is priced as a growth story, it does appear to be delivering however competition in the mortgage market is tricky. Agreed that banks can pass on the cost of rising interest rates, but it also increases the cost of capital - so i struggle to see the value here.
Page 32 of the 2017 accounts show that cash and balances with the Bank of England was £2.1bn - some of this is to provide collateral for payment system pools and some for the bank's liquidity management which may also include specie. Also worth noting on the same page in the accounts are that deposits from central banks (i.e Bank of England) are £3.2bn from its various schemes to promote lending into the economy. The main implication is that overall the bank is a net borrower (secured, low cost, and stable funding) from the central bank - this is not unusual.
More interesting than the bank's liquidity position (which the regulator is presumably all over) is the premium of Metro's valuation to the rest of the UK banks. e.g. according to Stockopedia today Metro price:book is 2.97x which is the highest of all UK banks e.g. Lloyds price:book of 1.01x or Virgin Money price:book of 0.68. Maintaining this premium for growth will require substantial growth in market share and sustainability of net new deposit gathering. Potential issues to think about here include: PSD2 which came into effect in January which could slow net deposit gathering and/or increase funding costs; at what point potential MREL requirements will increase funding costs; the potential for governance and leadership changes under the Code as for example, the Chairman and other board members have been in situ for 8 years or so; and of course competing in a very mature mortgage market in a gradual rising rate environment.
[ Note for good order: I do not hold a position in Metro Bank. ]
I am bearish on Metro Bank. Nonetheless I do think that the market has missed a number of points, both positive and negative (and I have met Vernon Hill III a couple of times):
1. The UK banks (and indeed banks globally) treat branches as a cost base and necessary evil; they focus on centralisation to reduce costs.
2. Vernon / Metro treats the branch as much as part of the cost of customer acquisition and retention. Think about this carefully – retaining and investing in a customer relationship alters the lifetime of that relationship and the value. For instance there is a decent amount of customer interaction, whilst signing on a customer, in branch. This may appear more costly but it saves on errors, improves the relationship and the intensity of the relationship (compare speaking to someone across the desk to speaking to someone in a call centre).
3. The safe deposit boxes are overlooked by many people. Just a bit of simple maths will show my point – suppose you have 1000 safe deposit boxes receiving £300 each per year – that is £300,000 ie a decent part of the cost of a branch.
4. Banks spend a fortune advertising. Vernon puts big branches on the corner of busy high streets – the branch is the bill-board. Indeed how would the maths of the cost base look if we took part of the branch cost and allocated it to ‘marketing’?
5. No legacy systems. I once was involved in a deal with a bank – it turned out that particular bank had 17 separate core banking systems.
6. On the negative side there is a bit of a shadow on Vernon Hill regarding what happened in the US with Commerce One. Also his wife’s company receives a substantive fee for interior design.)
7. Valuation. Buying expensively is always risky