Micron Tech (MU) Semiconductors Superstock Rank 99 $51.6 Mkt Cap

Monday, Nov 13 2017 by
5

MU makes memory chips for the i phones as well as other uses and has a market distribution in Singapore,Japan,China, Malaysia, & Taiwan., not sure about the UK.
The Stocopedia numbers look good with a 98 Mom, 98 Growth and 79 Value ranking. as well as a Superstock classification.. It also has a sales growth of 91%.
The Valuation is around $75 & therefore undervalued with a share price of $45, showing on the Vector Vest screen.
On the Stockopedia US bubble chart in my watch list This share is currently at the top, which is another good sign.50 day MA is fine. Perhaps another complimentary share ti go with IQE

Stop loss set @ $38.5


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Micron Technology, Inc. is engaged in semiconductor systems. The Company's portfolio of memory technologies, including dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), negative-AND (NAND) Flash and NOR Flash are the basis for solid-state drives, modules, multi-chip packages and other system solutions. Its business segments include Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU), which includes memory products sold into compute, networking, graphics and cloud server markets; Mobile Business Unit (MBU), which includes memory products sold into smartphone, tablet and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business Unit (SBU), which includes memory products sold into enterprise, client, cloud and removable storage markets, and SBU also includes products sold to Intel through its Intel/Micron Flash Technology (IMFT) joint venture, and Embedded Business Unit (EBU), which includes memory products sold into automotive, industrial, connected home and consumer electronics markets. more »

NSQ Price
$43.21
Change
0.0%
Mkt Cap (£m)
36,987
P/E (fwd)
5.7
Yield (fwd)
0.4



  Is Micron Technology Inc fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


46 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

herbie47 17th Nov 27 of 46

Some more to consider: ICHR, UCTT, LRCX, MZOR.

These are all new to me.

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lightningtiger 17th Nov 28 of 46

Well done Herbie for spotting LRCX again. It was mentioned by John Eustace in post 22. I t shows you are on the ball.
Out of all these shares mentioned I have tried to pick out the top 6, bearing there are 6433 US shares to select from & we are talking semiconductors which narrows it down to the market as a whole.
1. MU 5 screens, position 179           Price $36.04
2. ORBK 3 screens position 1607      Price $54.67
3.YY 3 screens position 924               Price $107.93
4. AMAT 1 screen position 147          Price $57.55
5.LRCX 8 screens position 276           Price $210.83
6.KLIC 2 screens position 1889          Price $27.01

The other "spare share" is SGH  3 screens position 2633 , which only got about 5 months on the chart & comparing MU and SGH with a chart comparison, it is perhaps one of the best performer over that time span.                                              Price $36.15

For the record prices at the time of writing 17/11/17

No doubt the watch list will keep an eye on the others and see how things progress.

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herbie47 17th Nov 29 of 46

In reply to lightningtiger, post #28

Yes I missed that one, thought I had seen before, it's post 23 by the way maybe you  do need new glasses? No NVDA? What are the positions? I did not think YY was semiconductors? Its also chinese.

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lightningtiger 17th Nov 30 of 46

You are correct on both counts Herbie, thank's.Simply add NVDA 2 screens position 60.

 Price $211.55 . The position can be seen at the top of the Stoco page as position in the universe. Then a quick look to the stock rank which is green, so I can check further rankings when needed.Since I do not have the US version of Stoco at the moment this was the easiest way to help sort out a few good shares. I am sure you can pick another 6, and other people can too, but at least it is a start.

It should be interesting to see the progress as time goes forward anything can happen as you know.

High trading today with AMAT 19M & MU 16M

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herbie47 17th Nov 31 of 46

In reply to lightningtiger, post #30

I see but that is just mcap size, I think just within that region?

If Apple are no 2 who is no. 1?

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lightningtiger 17th Nov 32 of 46

Perhaps we will find if market cap makes any difference. Don't know the largest company in the US ............yet.

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JohnEustace 18th Nov 33 of 46

There is an ETF called FFTY that is based on the Investors Business Daily 50 top ranked US stocks. If you look at the holdings in that ETF there are a number of the shares already mentioned plus the rest of their top 50. The ranking is based on the CAN SLIM system developed by William O’Neill.
I’m on mobile so can’t copy the details but they are here:
http://www.etf.com/FFTY

Alternatively you can subscribe to IBD and/or buy the ETF.

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lightningtiger 20th Nov 34 of 46

An interesting breakdown John, with FFTY.. 81% US stocks,15.45% China and only 0.45% UK. Top  10 holdings YY from............China!  , up over 7% today at the time of writing.

A good equity curve for FFTY.

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simoan 21st Nov 35 of 46
5

I think you need to be very careful here and properly understand the business that Micron is in. The memory business is incredibly fickle and often subject to oversupply, so it may look superficially cheap. Look at the amount of Capex Samsung are spending this year to blow the competition out of the water:

https://www.electronicsweekly....

IC Insights believes that Samsung’s massive spending outlays this year will have repercussions far into the future. One of the effects likely to occur is a period of overcapacity in the 3D NAND flash market.

This overcapacity situation will not only be due to Samsung’s huge spending for 3D NAND flash, but also to its competitors in this market segment (e.g., SK Hynix, Micron, Toshiba, Intel, etc.) responding to the company’s spending surge. At some point, Samsung’s competitors will need to ramp up their capacity or lose market share.

All the best, Si

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nicobos 21st Nov 36 of 46
1

In reply to simoan, post #35

I wholeheartedly agree.

It's a cyclical industry characterised by massive under and oversupply. It's how they've gone from breakeven to $5bn profit in a year as they are making hay whilst the sun shines. It's why it's hard to value this business on traditional metrics and say it's clearly 'undervalued'.

As competitors catch up and new supply comes into the market, you'll see large margin compression and quick erosion of profitability at Micron. Where it stabilises is anyone's guess!?

That said, I've taken a small bit of this on the basis of the strong momentum and believe it will be a little while before that supply comes to market. Hoping for a stellar next two quarters trading update and then will re-evaluate.

If there's any change to the forward outlook or signs of margin pressure, it's probably one to exit quickly before the herd. Definitely not a 'buy, hold and forget' stock !

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simoan 21st Nov 37 of 46
1

That said, I've taken a small bit of this on the basis of the strong momentum and believe it will be a little while before that supply comes to market.

Well, good luck with your investment and timing the exit! For commodity products like NAND flash and DRAM you also need to keep an eye on the demand side. If you get oversupply and falling demand at the same time, things can quickly get very ugly. That's all I'm saying, and I only mention this because others who are invested may not understand the industry dynamics well.

All the best, Si

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herbie47 29th Nov 38 of 46

Some quite big falls on US tech shares today, many down 5-8%, how's the watchlist looking?.

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nicobos 29th Nov 39 of 46

Great timing by me ! Stopped out already ;) I quite liked the micron chart as didn't look too volatile - that was disproved today!

What's quite noticeable is the strong correlation between all of the 'chip' shares and once the sector takes fright, they're all marked down together. Fundamentals go out the window. May look to re-enter once things stabilise...

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lightningtiger 30th Nov 40 of 46

Bit scary on the Nasdaq today with a 1.75% drop knocking MU down but not out. Checking the 50 day MA over a month (easiest to see from the smaller chart from the watch list with time frames) not quite hitting the stop @ about $42.5. A fibonacci retracement shows a forward price of $54. Time will tell if it gets there. The value from Vector Vest is $84 so still under valued.Patience.

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nicobos 1st Dec 41 of 46

Yes, Micron just continues to fall (despite the analyst report downgrading NAND pricing not expected to have a large impact on Micron's earnings). https://seekingalpha.com/article/4128981-micron-technology-this-end

It's down almost 20% in a week! Could be good value to pick some up ahead of the Dec earnings announcement but probably worth waiting until it bottoms out first...

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herbie47 1st Dec 42 of 46

Yes further falls today on tech. stocks in US. Only one I see going other way is AMBA. I'm out until things settle down.

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JohnEustace 1st Dec 43 of 46

A possible explanation for the apparently indiscriminate MU drop is that people have been selling out of chip ETFs like SOXX forcing those ETFs to sell all their holdings. There seems to be a rotation out of tech and into US financials based on expectations of the tax measures.
I agree with Herbie, I’m on the sidelines for now.

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nicobos 2nd Dec 44 of 46
1

John - that's a good point - I think this leads to indiscriminate selling which should create opportunities to pick up the less risky stocks within the ETF at a potential discount to their intrinsic value.

That said, impossible to swim against a tide of negative sector sentiment. My plan is to monitor SOXX for sector sentiment and when this starts bottoming / turning, look to take a position in Micron for 6 months (which hopefully doesn't get stopped out within a week!).

I quite like the minnervini approach of monitoring sectors for when they start moving out of a base and looking to pick 'high flyers' within these sectors. I know he is usually referring to coming out of a recession when some stocks can move up 100% over the period of a few weeks, but I'll see if I can apply his approach more generally !

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herbie47 4th Dec 45 of 46

More falls today on some tech. shares, MU down 3.5%, LRCX 3.2%, AMAT 4.1%, ANET 8.3%, DLGNF 24.9%, NVDA 5.5%.

I thought there may have been a bounce today with the tax reform bill going through but I read tech. companies will not benefit that much.

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lightningtiger Tue 7:09pm 46 of 46

I too expected a bounce back yesterday with the tax reform bill going through, but it seems a day late in having some effect.and more of a long term benefit in the pipeline. Probably the heavy selling was triggered with automatic stops in place when it hit a 10% drop from almost $50 & it has driven the price even further down. At least there is a kink in the graph again in the right direction again.
Still standing at a 99 Ranking.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, so to speak TECH also Ranked 99, not Micron Tech, which I took a punt with is making up for MU.in the last week. A big spread, but also a big leap makes it worth while. About 2M shares traded today.
Bearing in mind, what goes up can come down even faster.

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