| Mighty May For >20%.......

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28th Apr '10 by flyingbull

24 comments 4371 reads

For the May 2010 “>20%” monthly oil stock competition, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the May competition is midnight on Sunday, 2 May 2010.

Good luck!!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

24 comments

djpreston

29th Apr '10

Only one pick for me and that is Regal Petroleum (LON:RPT) for the up.

Reasoning?

Massively oversold now and on the biggest discount to risked NAV of any E&P I know.

Senitment has been hurt by the Russian supply agreement, which has only knocked 10-30% of NAV's (depending on the analyst you speak to) and also the selling down of Frank Timmis' holding. i suspect that he is selling to fund calls now that he is strugglingto get his latest venture accpeted on any major Stock Market (rejected by 3? so far).

Catalyst? - Testing results due on two completed wells.

Particularly interesting would be the results on the T&D sands. Although the results and strategy shift mean that these are not now the focus, it will be intriguing to see what these can deliver.

The shift in strategy to concentrate on ramping up production from the shallow B sands is sensible as this respresents their 120mm boe reserves in Ukraine (nothing in for T&D) and the wells can be drilled a lot quicker and cheaper than the deeper T&D targetting wells. Build up cashflow and then look to do something with T&D later seems sensible to me. The well costs will reduce signifcantly as they redesign and refine them for B production.

The latest test showed that the jet perforation technique works well (production doubled) making it commercial. This has been a major concern of the market to date. They dont doubt the reserves, just if it is commercial.

A pile of cash and cashflow means no pressure on capex going forward.

The management are top drawer (look at their CV's).

Mkt cap to reserves is just insane IMO.

Analysts targets range form 130p to 180p compared to a 45p offer now. Could a demonstration of more commercial flows tempt a buyer out (Russian??).

alano20

29th Apr '10

Hi fb,

Up SIA - for all the five reasons ee set out above.

Down - no choice

Argus

29th Apr '10

Hi fb,

First go at your comp! :)

Up - SIA

Down - Caza.

Cheers,

Argus

Impvesta

29th Apr '10

Up Ascent (AST) please. Much unloved by the market at present and recent sale of Swiss assets not properly reflected in the SP IMO.

Regards

Impvesta

SW10Chap

29th Apr '10

Interesting call by djp on Regal Petroleum (LON:RPT) - maybe I should look more closely at it!

I can't really see a 20% riser or faller this month, so will stick pins and say:

UP: Encore Oil (LON:EO.)
DOWN: Transocean

SW10

fuiseog

29th Apr '10

As I have a 'free carry' on this I think I'll take a gamble and pick DPL for >20%

It's a bit early for it's proposed June spud but it's a very volatile stock, and one never knows, there could be corporate actions of various types.

My heart (and pocket) is with SIA!

No 20%

Many thanks fb

fuiseog

Fangorn

29th Apr '10

I'm with Impvesta,

Up Ascent Resources (LON:AST) please

flyinghorse

29th Apr '10

Up Ithaca Energy Inc (LON:IAE) either as hunter or hunted

Down Aminex (LON:AEX) on news flow

mallye

29th Apr '10

Sell in May and go away could be more relevent this year than most in view of the steep rise in the markets over the last year despite the simmering financila problems and dept issues all over place, so I don't expect too many risers this month.

Up Dominion Petroleum (LON:DPL) on speculative buying ahead of the drilling in Uganda and Tanzania in June.

Down Chariot Oil & Gas (LON:CHAR) which has got quite ahead of itself and drilling of the prospect is a long way off.

Isaac

29th Apr '10

In reply to emptyend

I'll have to agree with Isaac - on the up side anyway ;-)

Well no surprises there. In all the time I have been Investing I have never come across a director that has been bearish on the his own company.

This is why I actually hate the idea that you are a non-exec director at Aminex although this is very good for you.This is due to the very fact that I appreciate most of your comments on companies but dislike the restrictions imposed on you.

Your position does not allow you to express an Independent view. I am very much against Carmensfellas idea of recruiting more non-execs. I just have'nt seen any benefit from it at all. If anything it has been negative as we have less people expressing an independent view.

I am actually very annoyed you can't make the Soco AGM.....I was really looking forward to read your take on events at the AGM. I much prefer for someone who has been following the company for a long time to gives his view point.

I am looking forward to reading the Aminex annual report - I will be interested to know how much your being paid for this non-exec role as it clearly comes with sacrifices!

FWIW

I won't even consider buying Aminex until there is a firm date of a second well on Likonde and I am comfortable that Aminex has the cash to fully support the drilling without fund raising. In general I also want to be comfortable that the markets are not likely to crash or correct in any significant way.

I will admit over the next few months there are a number of factors that can trigger a very severe correction and in such a scenario I don't want to hold any small caps.

I don't hold any small caps at the mo. I only hold shares in big companies that would comfortably ride out any new downturn.

I have been positioned like this for a while now and therefore am very comfortable with my positions.

repobear

29th Apr '10

Ohh Isaac FFS.

I actually like some of the points you make about investing and the wider economy, but the sniping at ee does you no favours.

You turn off people who have met him, because they know better, and the substance of what you say gets washed away in the negative reaction.

There are some people out there who are bright enough and have big enough balls; not to have an agenda. ee is in my judgement one of them.

Think on old son.

Isaac

29th Apr '10

repobear

I am actually not sniping at ee. That is not my intention at all. What is the point? It does'nt add any value to anyone.

Perhaps I should :-) a bit more in my posts ...

I am a genuine person and I want to express an opinion on what I actually think. This is not about pointing fingers at people or having snipes.

I honestly don't think any director of any company has said a negative point about their company and often will tell you a bullish remark about their company. Do you dispute this point?

I am talking from a general sense here as all the directors I've spoken to, all the press comments of directors I've read and meetings I have been in they all seem to talk positive. As you would naturally expect.

I'd much rather have an ee who sits on the outside asses the comments from Directors and Analysts and then expresses his thoughts/specualte rather then having him as a non-exec who has certain information and rightly so is restricted from speculating and fully expressing his thoughts!

That is the rules of being a director of a company, it is honestly not a rule ee has decided.

All I am saying is emptyend is more valuable to fellow posters on the outside rather then being a director where he can't say much.

Let's be very clear....I am a big fan of emptyend and I very much appreciate his thoughts....

emptyend

30th Apr '10

In all the time I have been Investing I have never come across a director that has been bearish on the his own company.
This is why I actually hate the idea that you are a non-exec director at Aminex although this is very good for you.This is due to the very fact that I appreciate most of your comments on companies but dislike the restrictions imposed on you.
Your position does not allow you to express an Independent view......

Actually I am far from convinced that it is "good for me" at all, in the round. It pays very little and comes with considerable strings attached, which not only prevented me from "loading up" before the spud announcement at Likonde but also from taking any profit at all when the shares were in the mid-teens. I have no doubt whatsover that many people here would have made more from AEX in the last 6-8 months than I or the other NEDs have, even allowing for modest fees etc!!

As you note, I am also unable to take part in any speculative discussion on AEX, whether positive or negative. This isn't so much a matter of director rules as my own judgement about what is and isn't appropriate. It isn't appropriate for directors to speculatively "big up" a company, just as one would never expect them to run it down. However, you most certainly shouldn't assume that "an independent view" isn't being expressed - it is just being expressed to others on the Board rather than (directly) to people on a discussion board. You may not see any particular value being added from this, but I'd suggest that any incremental enhancement to the business that results from my input is rather more useful to shareholders in aggregate than occasional bits of guesswork expressed on bulletin boards.

I do, of course, continue to guess away on SOCO and other stocks and to express independent opinions - and I will certainly do that around the time of the AGM again this year even if I will be unable to ask direct questions at the AGM. Surely the rest of you can fill in the gaps, given that dozens have turned out now for many AGMs?

Finally, I'd be grateful if you ceased all forms of personal comment on forums such as this. If such comments persist, I may be forced to post very much less on all topics - which is something you claim not to want and something I would rather avoid having to do!

AbAngus

2nd May '10

Thankyou, FB, as always.

Please may I choose Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) for the up comp? The published chance of success with Sea Lion is 23% (ignoring any upside from the AVO anomaly). However, I suspect that a complete duster is unlikely - especially as the Shell 14/01 well (which flowed oil in the first campaign) was not that far away. I am guessing that there will be enough encouragement in the results to lift RKH shares. (If oil actually flows then the shares will be lifted a lot more than 20%!)

No pick for the down comp.

AA

[Disclosure: We have a small punt remaining on RKH, having traded the volatility.]

robs12

2nd May '10

Up Petro Matad (LON:MATD)

Down BP!!

DearLeader

2nd May '10

Hi FB

up: RPT
down: BP.

nice one.

JPGH

2nd May '10

Up >20% : Regal Petroleum (LON:RPT) (Timis is cleared out, Mex 106 well recovers stuck piece of tubing, production update)

Down> 20% : Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) (Sealion drill (34 days, 2700m spudded on April 16) hitting either dust or gas).

JPGH

arkleseizure

3rd May '10

Up: Nautical NPE
Down: Frontera FRR
Cheers

ryanandbethan

3rd May '10

up SQZ
down FRR
Let me know if you need a hand compiling the entries....
Thanks

flyingbull

1st Jun '10

Mighty May was indeed a month of mighty happenings. The Falklands drilling
finally pays off whilst BP faces its' biggest challenge at least in the last thirty years.

">20% Up" Competition:
Hats off to Abangus for picking the one to pick in May!! A massive 538% rise for RKH.
A big congratulations!!!!

">20% Down" Competition:
Drilling success is crucial to the share price. So is production successes. Lack of production
news in FRR seems to have contributed to the downward trend in the share price. Congratulations
to Strolling Molby, Eastheath, Arkleseizure and Ryanandbethan for winning the ">20% Down"
competition with a good 35% reduction on FRR!

The results below were compiled by ryanandbethan and flyingbull.

">20% Up" Competition Results:

-0.9% Average

537.8%	RKH	ABANGUS	Stockopedia
4.6%	COV	CHRISWALDEN	Fool
-1.2%	SIA	JOHNNY LITE	Fool
-1.2%	SIA	ALAN020	Stockopedia
-1.2%	SIA	ARGUS	Stockopedia
-2.0%	NOP	FLEECEDNFLOGGED	Fool
-2.5%	HOIL	DAVEYDAN	Fool
-3.0%	TLW	CASANARE	Fool
-3.2%	EO.	REO100	Stockopedia
-3.2%	EO.	SW10	Stockopedia
-4.1%	DPL	LUMINOSO	Fool
-4.1%	DPL	FUISEOG	Stockopedia
-4.1%	DPL	MALLYE	Stockopedia
-6.0%	VPP	JIMARILO	Fool
-7.3%	EOG	WSHAK	Fool
-8.8%	MATD	ROBS12	Stockopedia
-9.0%	MOG	GHH	Fool
-9.4%	BLVN	URANIUMOIL	Fool
-11.0%	NPE	ARKLESEIZURE	Stockopedia
-13.0%	EME	CHRISTIAN12	Fool
-13.0%	EME	HYWEL	Fool
-15.6%	IAE	FLYINGHORSE	Stockopedia
-20.0%	AST	ICDGYIFXIY	Fool
-20.0%	AST	MARKC2010	Fool
-20.0%	AST	IMPVESTA	Stockopedia
-20.0%	AST	FANGORN	Stockopedia
-24.5%	AEX	KYU66	Fool
-24.5%	AEX	EASTHEATH	Fool
-24.5%	AEX	TAUROCTINUS	Fool
-24.5%	AEX	HDTH	Fool
-25.2%	RPT	FINELLA	Fool
-25.2%	RPT	DJPRESTON	Stockopedia
-25.2%	RPT	DEARLEADER	Stockopedia
-25.2%	RPT	JPGH	Stockopedia
-28.7%	SQZ	Strolling Molby	Fool
-28.7%	SQZ	NORMAN115	Fool
-28.7%	SQZ	RBCRBC	Fool
-28.7%	SQZ	TGG	Fool
-28.7%	SQZ	RYANANDBETHAN	Stockopedia
-34.8%	FRR	FAT PROPHET	Fool

">20% Down" Competition Results:

37.4% Average

-34.8%	FRR	Strolling Molby	Fool
-34.8%	FRR	EASTHEATH	Fool
-34.8%	FRR	ARKLESEIZURE	Stockopedia
-34.8%	FRR	RYANANDBETHAN	Stockopedia
-24.5%	AEX	MARKC2010	Fool
-24.5%	AEX	FLYINGHORSE	Stockopedia
-21.5%	RIG (USA)	SW10	Stockopedia
-20.0%	AST	LUMINOSO	Fool
-17.5%	HAWK	FAT PROPHET	Fool
-14.0%	BP.	ROBS12	Stockopedia
-14.0%	BP.	DEARLEADER	Stockopedia
-13.0%	EME	DAVEYDAN	Fool
-8.8%	MATD	CHRISTIAN12	Fool
-8.8%	MATD	HYWEL	Fool
-6.0%	VPP	FLEECEDNFLOGGED	Fool
-3.7%	GKP	WSHAK	Fool
-2.5%	FPM	TAUROCTINUS	Fool
-2.5%	HOIL	NORMAN115	Fool
11.8%	CAZA	ARGUS	Stockopedia
13.6%	NTOG	TGG	Fool
33.6%	FOGL	RBCRBC	Fool
83.2%	CHAR	MALLYE	Stockopedia
537.8%	RKH	FINELLA	Fool
537.8%	RKH	JPGH	Stockopedia

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Flyingbull

24 comments

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