Modestly bullish FTSE

Wednesday, Sep 08 2010 by

There are some hurdles to overcome on the chart, most notably the possible divergence on MACD and the resistance (red line) above the price but it won't take much of a push from here for me to think about 5600/5800 as a target.




Filed Under: Technical Analysis,


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24 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

smarm 13th Sep '10 5 of 24

Pop goes the FTSE.  5600 the first target, next targeet 5800.  Note that  the possible MACD divergence is not negated so just a bit of caution needed.

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smarm 14th Sep '10 6 of 24

Great balls of amazingness.

The 127.2% fib is at 5588 on the above chart and FTSE turned today at 5582. 6 points out. Is that a hit is 6 too many points? We'll have to see what happens next.

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smarm 20th Sep '10 7 of 24

FTSE executed the break-out, pullback and now we wait to see whether it's going to power ahead or has it all been one great tease.

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SW10Chap 20th Sep '10 8 of 24

Then we'll have to see whether it's got the Ooooomph to get past 5500 or whether in fact we're in for a sharp return to the 5100 or even 5000 area. We wait. [9 Sep]

The MACD divergence is still in play but less so. It won't take much now for me to want to remove the modestly from the heading. We wait. [10 Sep]

the possible MACD divergence is not negated so just a bit of caution needed. [13 Sep]

Is that a hit is 6 too many points? We'll have to see what happens next. [14 Sep]

now we wait to see whether it's going to power ahead or has it all been one great tease. [20 Sep]

I don't get it. Are we waiting for the point where we can look back in hindsight to say we were right when we predicted something which we then had to wait and see whether or not it was true?

When does the actual investing take place, then? Are you going to tell us about the timing of your buys and sells as they happen?


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macroeconomix 20th Sep '10 9 of 24

Buy low, sell high is what I'd suggest.

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smarm 5th Oct '10 10 of 24

In reply to macroeconomix, post #9

Sometimes you have to buy high and sell higher.

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smarm 5th Oct '10 11 of 24

The FTSE is now trading a tight range between 5500 and 5635. A break either way could produce a big move. My target for an upside break is the 5800 area and my target for a downside break is 5400. We wait.

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bugsmunny 6th Oct '10 12 of 24

It's near its recent highs. Seems like plenty of economic bugs to foul things up, at least enough to cause bad days with significant pullbacks.

We might. I do not.

My portie is up 300% from 6 months ago....actually have down bets on the FTSE for some "pocket money." hedges.


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smarm 6th Oct '10 13 of 24

bugsmunny - I use FTSE to guide me in whether to be long, short or flat and to determine how much of my portfolio should be invested. Right now consolidation tells me to be careful not to be caught long or short at wrong time. Well done on the 300%, is that leveraged or unleveraged?

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smarm 6th Oct '10 14 of 24

In reply to SW10Chap, post #8

I will not be giving buy/sell signals as I am not authorised to do so.

I posted that I was modestly bullish FTSE and gave reasons. I have continued the narrative. It's up to you when or if you want to take a trade.

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MadDutch 6th Oct '10 15 of 24

In reply to smarm, post #14

You have not answered SW10's question. He asked you;

Are you going to tell us about the timing of your buys and sells as they happen?

There is a lot of scepticism here about technical analysis. Please don't avoid this chance to prove there is something of value in it.


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MrT 6th Oct '10 16 of 24

In reply to MadDutch, post #15

That's like a Catholic asking a Muslim to justify their faith in Allah. Technical analysis is a different religion. It sees the market in a totally different way. If you're a long-term value investor, I think it's highly unlikely that you will be persuaded of its merits regardless of whether this poster starts offering buy/sell signals, but many traders successfully live and breathe by TA every day. Each to his own, I say. There are lots of way to make money. 

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smarm 6th Oct '10 17 of 24

MadDutch -

Q: Are you going to tell us about the timing of your buys and sells as they happen?

A: No.

I couldn't care less about TA scepticism here about. I am not here to prove it has something of value

The ability to read the direction of the market, whether stock, commodity or index (I avoid FX) is important to me as it determines my attitude to risk in the market.

If it's of interest to you great, if not then it's of no bother to me. I publish because it makes me focus.....

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smarm 6th Oct '10 18 of 24

In reply to MrT, post #16

Mr T - LOL! No, it's not a different religion and it doesn't see things in a totally different way. TA simply seeks to better time entry and exit. There are many stocks on which I wouldn't dream of using driven stocks, for example, or those with very wide spreads.

The assumption that it is fundamentals vs TA is ridiculous and for me the best outcome uses a combination of the two but as you say....there are many ways of making money.

Meanwhile, I would draw your attention to my original post and the fact we are closer to 5800 than we were.

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bugsmunny 6th Oct '10 19 of 24

I'm glad to say, no leverage at all - just share buying LOW an' selling HIGH


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smarm 6th Oct '10 20 of 24

In reply to bugsmunny, post #19

Well done.

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bugsmunny 6th Oct '10 21 of 24

actually i learned a vital lesson last time around....keep some cash and have been top-slicing as the market rises....there may well be more to go but i'm not going to splash it around just because i can't think of where to put it.....i just dont see the market getting back to where we were for years, and plenty of dips, uncertainty and opportunities....

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smarm 6th Oct '10 22 of 24

bugsmunny - well, we'll know with hindsight. For now the market is strongly in a bull phase but it's never wrong to bank a profit. That said, if I bank too early I swallow my pride and buy back.....higher if I have to.

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smarm 7th Oct '10 23 of 24

Here then is the right hand side of the chart. After breaking the top diagonal resistance channel (see above), FTSE consolidated for days and days. Yesterday it broke out and has perhaps started a climb to my 5800 target.  Today's pullback will be telling......onwards and upwards or back into the consolidation pattern (the two horizontal lines where the price simply travelled between two fib areas.

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Markgasman 11th Oct '10 24 of 24

I am very intrested in learning more about TA Robbie pointed me in your direction. Unfortunatly cant make december meet. I am reading some books, can you suggest any you have found good.

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