It was our first positive trading week in five on the market.
It was a quiet week market wise from both a volume and corporate news perspective. Most business leaders were still likely down on the Peninsula or watching rain fall at a Test Match. Expect things to start ramping up a little this week.
Me in particular, I will be keeping an eye on any sales updates from our retailers. I have long held the belief that the health of the Australian consumer is a key barometer for our market. It will be interesting to see whether being gainfully employed means they will continue to spend money as if they were teenagers, or whether we are starting to see some belt tightening as cost of living pressures start to bite.
Overseas I will be watching how China goes with its continued re-opening. Our largest trading partner has seen a wave of COVID infections hit the cities and it is likely to spread to rural communities over the coming month.How this looks for a country obsessed with “maintaining face” will be interesting.
Obviously from a market’s perspective the quicker our largest trading partner comes to terms with living with COVID the better (a little extra government stimulus would be the cream on the top).
Week ended 06 January 2023
S&P500
The US Market experienced its first positive week (though shortened) in five, and all of it was achieved on the Friday as we had been headed towards a fifth consecutive down week, particularly after the open on Friday.
S&P500 1 week, daily chart
But then on Friday, the December jobs report and an economic activity survey, showed signs that inflation may be cooling, signaling that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are having their intended effect.
S&P500 weekly chart
A focus for the last few weeks has been the 3700 - 3740 range. We also talked about the “Dragonfly Doji”of last week, so it was pleasing to see the market play out like it
S&P500 4 weeks weekly chart
We are still not out of the woods, and with the market's willingness to keep…
