More year-end introspection – but only a little

Sunday, Dec 30 2012 by

I made a little note to myself to review a post I made on 6 Jan 2012.

Thomas Cook (TCG)

I puffed myself up like a peacock having correctly called the collapse of TCG in 2011. I had nothing to say about it for 2012. It’s a good job I didn’t bad-mouth it, because the shares went up 200% during that period. I suspect we’ll see further recovery for 2012, given they’ve got new directors, some breathing space for debt, and an actual plan as to how they’ll get out of the hole they’re in.

It’s a bold call on my part, and one for which there’s considerable risk that I’ll look foolish over, but we shall see. 45p

Blacks Leisure

I spoke about that in a recent post. Moving on.

GEONG International (GNG)

A company with more cash than market cap (ostensibly), and a PER of 2.5. I actually called it as a short candidate. Turns out I was bang on the money, because it lost 67% in share price. I seem to have a very good track record with shorting ideas, although I have never followed up on them. To some extent, I think it’s much easier to have good shorting ideas than it is to have good long ones. It is a Chinese stock – which very much helps if you’re looking for short ideas. Revenues were down, there were new auditors at some point, and I remember reading from the accounts that directors couldn’t seem to keep their story straight. In an RNS they might mention how they were paying attention to cash collection, and in others they said that it would go down due to their new improved business model. Glancing over the stats on Sharelock Holmes, I see that their interest cover is inadequate at 3.3, the z score is a suspicious 2.3. In fact, the interest cover is too generous – now, as ever, they are net cashflow negative, so the P&L account isn’t worth the paper it’s written onk, as far as I’m concerned. They have net cash of 2.5m, against net operating cashflows of 2.2m, so presumably they’ll run out of money soon unless they can convince someone to pour in some more caipital, or they convert their receivables to cash. Ah yes, the ol’…

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Thomas Cook Group plc is a holiday company. The Company's segments are United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Northern Europe and Airlines Germany. Its hotels and resort brands include Sentido, Sunprime, Sunwing, Sunconnect, Smartline and Casa Cook. It has airline operations in Belgium, Scandinavia and the United Kingdom. It has a fleet of over 90 aircraft under the Thomas Cook Airlines and Condor brands. It operates from approximately 20 source markets in Europe and China. Its Sentido brand has operations in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Hungary, Poland, Netherlands and Czech Republic. Its Smartline brand has operations in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Hungary, Poland, Netherlands and Czech Republic. Its Thomas Cook brand has operations in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Hungary, Poland and Netherlands. Its Sunprime Hotels brand has operations in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Its Neckermann brand has operations in Germany and Austria, among others. more »

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Intermediate Capital Group plc is a specialist asset manager. The Company is the fund management company (FMC) and the investment company (IC). Its funds invest across four asset categories, providing finance for corporate investments, including private debt and minority equity; capital market investments of public and private debt; real assets, principally real estate debt, and private equity secondaries funds. It manages various investments, such as corporate investments, including Senior debt, mezzanine and equity investments in Europe, Asia Pacific and North America; capital market investments, such as collateralized loan obligation (CLO), loan mandate and other credit funds in Europe and North America; real asset investment, including real estate investment in senior debt, subordinated debt and equity in the United Kingdom commercial real estate investment, and secondaries, such as investment in secondaries private equity (PE) transactions in the European and North America. more »

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  Is LON:TCG fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »

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About Mark Carter

Mark Carter

I am a private investor living in Scotland. I am a computer programmer by trade.


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