Since I started investing about 20-30 years ago, I've eschewed the idea of market timing in as much as that means calling the overall market. I've been happy to call individual stocks, but not the market as a whole or indeed any individual sector or subsector. (That's not absolutely correct. I did call the oil sector in toto as offering significant upside many years ago - but I was quite a few years ahead of events - and in terms of opportunity costs that premature call probably cost me as much as if I'd been as late as the rest of the world). One of the main consequences of this is that I have almost always been fully invested - or within a whisker thereof. There have been 2 occasions when I have realised too late that such an approach could go seriously wrong.
First, I got caught in the tech stock traincrash around 2001-2 and lost about 60-65% of my total portfolio. It took me years and years to recover, serious austerity was required and my teeth gritted so hard they almost fused together. My debonair good looks were preserved only by a course of botox in my stiff upper lip. A couple of years ago, I finally got back to the levels of my previous peak and then sailed comfortably onwards in an upwards direction. I foolishly celebrated by taking a very extravagant holiday which left me out of radio contact for three weeks. That happened to co-incide with the market collapse which was triggered by the implosion of the banks and their ilk. That loss was smaller in percentage terms than the first, but was much more painful in emotional and intellectual terms. It exposed some very poor investment decisions I had made and a woeful lack of risk management. I wished I'd had the old saying about "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me" tatooed somewhere visible.
So, back to the grindstone, back to the investment equivalent of toting barges and lifting bales. And back to a personal austerity programme of a savagery unthinkable to any Prime Ministerial Candidate. And now a mere 2 years on, although I haven't regained the previous dizzy heights by any means, I am well on the way. And as of first thing this morning, I was still fully invested.
I have to say I'm really surprised; I always thought of you as a really level headed person. Reducing leverage I can understand, but are you really considering selling Soco shares now? I hope that 'Tintin in the Congo' nonsense hasn't spooked you. :^}
Buffy
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