Stock Picks | Naked Trader Stock Picks And Moves | Ericb

16th Apr '13 by ericb

48 comments 29768 reads

This is a thread to follow analyse and discuss Naked Trader stock picks. He has certainly proved his worth as a top stock picker and shrewd mover, and has rightly accumulated a popular following.

I would like the discussion to enable participants to learn from his picks and help to find other stocks which would appear to have similar potential to be safe long term growth material or good position moves for market situations.

The website where he posts his trading diary is www.nakedtrader.co.uk - Lets go !

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About the Author

Ericb

Premium Member

48 comments

Calalily

18th Apr '13

No price on FTC purchase, interestingly enough its in contrast to Paul's comments this morning on the share.

ericb

19th Apr '13

he probably bought FTC in the low 50's, quoting a broker target of 79 so even a rise to 65 would give him 20% which is the minimum he would look for in a trade, 76p 40%.

On a 5 - 7K position thats not bad for a quick move !

SevenPillars

19th Apr '13

I've had a quick look at his latest update and here are some observations.

He has said before that he might take this summer off and if he makes any selections they would have to be really special, which he repeated again. He feels that the current market trend may be ending or at least taking a break so being in cash isn't a bad thing.

He also says that he has started doing a little shorting on the FTSE and mining sector. I assume he means the mining sector index as he doesn't mention individual shares. This could work out ok, although the mining sector right now is well oversold. It's also very volatile so not for everyone. He's done well shorting the FTSE in the past and the current trend on the daily chart does look down to me, although it remains to be seen how far we go.

Interestingly, considering the discussion so far here, he does give a little further information about his holding in Telecom Plus as it has just smashed through 1000p and is now up around 1200p. He states that he initially bought it at around 18p, even though he nearly didn't buy. I would still be interested to know if he was a holder when it went from around 400p to a low of 80ish between 2004 and 2006. In fact, I'm intrigued to find out why the share fell that much and I did wonder at first whether it happened because there was a share issue or something like a 2 for 1 issue happened. However, as the move, at least on the charts, seems to have happened over a longer period it is difficult to say. I would still like to ask him if he was a holder during that time and why he stuck with it, after all, that is a 75%+ drop.

I did a bit of research and found a placing of TEP shares back in 2005 at 208p. Looking back at some of its results for the period 2004-6 it did seem to go from profit to loss. £6.4million profit Dec2004, £5.1million Dec 2005, loss of £1.6million Mar 2006. That's interesting, because on that basis it looks the kind of share that he would avoid and lets face it perhaps gives the reason why it fell so much. It was still a growth story, but profits were falling for 2 years. Maybe he did something which he would tell us not to do, he fell in love with the share!

Given that TEP is now around 1200p, none of that matters. 18p to 1200p is incredible, especially if he added along the way, but just think of the faith required and lack of stop loss policy needed to sit through a 75%+ drop!

None of the above is meant as a criticism of NT or his strategy and way of doing things, it's just that sometimes all is not what it seems.

Calalily

19th Apr '13

Think they may have been around the time they 'sold off' their energy customers which was a loss making division at the time.

SevenPillars

19th Apr '13

I think that is so and reference is made to the elimination of exposure to wholesale energy prices in the 2006 release. By 2007 TEP profits were on a roll again at £11.6million and a look at the chart shows that recovery into the long term upward trend that we still see in place today, with blips along the way, was in place. It would seem the company had a rocky and volatile to the downside two years though which would have been tough for anyone faithfully holding the shares through it.

SevenPillars

24th Apr '13

NT has updated his site today and seems to have closed a number of trades for healthy profits.

He gives Kentz Corp a mention having topsliced, but looking to get back in now it has fallen a little. This one does seem to have its ups and downs, but when it moves it does tend to go fast - either way.

Calalily

25th Apr '13

Seven, a good entry on that this morning at 367p.

SevenPillars

9th May '13

Good article from NT in the latest Spreadbet magazine where he does say that occasionally he does become married - almost - to a share and lists those he currently has a long term liking for. As you would expect, Telecom Plus is in there, as is Dialight, both of which the long time commitment has paid off handsomely. He mentions a few new potential love affairs, Porvair, London Capital Group and Filtonic. Well worth having a read and the magazine is free to download.

romski999

4th Jun '13

Does anyone know how he times his entries, or his use of level 2.

I have purchase level 2 and can’t seem to use it to gain an edge of any sort, nor can I really identify any patterns to break outs of any sort, has anyone else had any better luck ?

DJLJ23

4th Jun '13

Romski999,

I tried level 2 for a couple of weeks after attending one of his seminars, but also struggled with it.
I think the key advantage, is on the day, I don't think it can show long term trends, it shows you where the key traders are on the day. I watched Robbie b (NT) demonstrate how he could pick a share, buy it and virtually immediately be in profit, because he could see where the next block of shares would be trading.

As he said its very complicated and takes quite a while (months) to get your head around it and I have struggled to find a good book on it.

so if any body has a recommendation, it would be gratefully appreciated

SevenPillars

5th Jun '13

I think you are probably right re level 2. That and also perhaps having direct market access which I believe NT also uses, may mean that he gets in at a better price, certainly better than the quoted spread you often see for smaller companies (especially if you are spread betting as he often does). With the smaller companies it probably helps to see the build up of buyers or sellers that can move the price quickly. So, it helps to get in at the right time if you can master it, but you still need to have a good system for picking shares as it won't tell you what the likely price will be in 6 months+ time.

One other thing, as you have attended a NT seminar it would be interesting to get some feedback on it. Has it helped your trading/investing? Was there anything in the seminar that isn't covered by his books? Do you think it was worth it given the cost?

DJLJ23

5th Jun '13

Worth it given the cost?
I was lucky, I got it funded as part of a redundancy package.
I've probably been investing for to long, to get the most out of it. The seminars are based around the experience of the group, so for me, as i'd been investing for a while, it was a bit basic (possibly because I tended towards his approach anyway), but I did find it useful, and it certainly has improved my results.
He does do a second seminar for those who have been on the first one, which I think concentrates more on use of level 2. so I think, when i'm feeling flush, which may be sometime away, i'll do that one.
A couple of things to note, I don't think nt follows stop losses slavishly, he tends to look at them in relation to the market as a whole, and use spreadbets (as index or share) to counter any downside he might see in share he holds, but does not want to sell.
I found the book great and its a constant reference point.

bobdouglas

5th Jun '13

Attended two of Robbie's seminars early 2012 and have been investing/trading full time for just over a year. Certainly for somebody starting out in this line of business I would recommend reading Robbie's book and going to a seminar as being from the north I was expecting to listen to some "city slicker" which couldn't have been further from the truth. There's no substitute for "hearing it from the horse's mouth". It has taken a while to find the strategy I feel comfortable with (generally profitable companies with a sound balance sheet i.e. some tangible assets and a market cap of say 50m to 150m market cap - sometimes a bit either side of that). Try and always keep in the back of my mind Robbie's wise words of running with your winners and get out of your losers pretty damn quick - I feel it is a lot about psychology and personally I prefer to be the hunter rather than the hunted.

romski999

8th Jun '13

Has anyone tried his more advanced course, I have been to the beginner level and quite enjoyed it even though a touch on the expensive side, was wondering what his more advanced course is like?

Calalily

9th Jun '13

I've attended two of Robbie's follow up seminars and consider you get what you pay for. The follow up drills down further into trading skills, questioning what you are holding/trading, psychology side of trading, live trading and L2 also gets further scrutiny. I think he has a great knack of keeping it simple yet very effective.

I've also had a TA day with Susan Marmor (and Robbie)... Susan is very much on the ball as well!

Calalily

9th Jun '13

Robbie uses L2 when making his trades. It gives you a real idea of where the share price is moving and if its a good time to make a buy/sell. I use L2 and have come to rely on doing the same. I kind of feel blind without it.

marben100

10th Jun '13

Hi DJLJ23,

Though it's somewhat out of date, if you want to understand L2, I highly recommend The UK Traders Bible. The basics remain valid, but nowadays there are alternative venues, such as Chi-X, BATS and Turquoise that trades take place on, as well as the LSE.

I do use L2 for trading activities and it can sometimes help judge an opportune time to buy or sell a stock and, most importantly, what sort of size you will be able to buy or sell in, close to the touch price.

For most investment activity, however, its usefulness is limited. With smallcaps, it's far more important to have a good broker, who has access to L2 and contact with market makers to advise you on the state of the market for a stock you want to buy or sell.

Cheers,

Mark

DJLJ23

10th Jun '13

Mark, Many thanks for the info

romski999

10th Jun '13

thanks buddy, I have ordered a copy of the bookso lets see.....

I'm also keen on intrepreting volume, although the buys and sells can be manipulated. I trust the actually volume of stock can't be.

Also does anyone have any tips on how to spot institutional/large buy orders on the books?

ericb

13th Dec '13

Naked Trader 2014 potential shiners - SEE DDD (US) GPM KBC RGS VEC

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