| Nice 'n' Easy For November >20%.......

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28th Oct '10 by flyingbull

14 comments 4244 reads

For the November 2010 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the October competition is midnight on Sunday 31 October 2010.

Good luck!!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

14 comments

AbAngus

31st Oct '10

So far this is the only Stocko entry! Is everyone reverting back to TMF?

Some thoughts:

COP - consistently held down for some reason. One day it might suddenly play catch up? There is no obvious trigger on the horizon at the moment that I can see - but it will presumably happen eventually.

EME - good news at Riverbend might see this take off... News about the less dramatic Sugarloaf wells continues to provide a solid background.

FPM - I can't see AM being a failure (otherwise they would have announced it I suspect). Lagavulin is bigger and is drilling - but it looks as though there is some hope value priced in.

IRG - oh dear, the Tunisian failure hit the shares hard. But the real prize is the Rivara gas storage. If only we knew when the news will come. 'Within months' was the statement in June, IIRC. Regulatory permission would see the shares rocket. (Of course - they might be refused permission....?!)

PANR - golly. Still waiting for news of a rig for their well. Sep/Oct/Nov was the last suggestion - and we are now into Nov.... A successful well would be potentially transformational.

PPC - Khafoury 3 to spud (for a 40 day well). Success at the deep levels would be a shot in the arm.

PVR - looks as though it might have a good year ahead, but not quite sure what might lift it 20% in November...

RRL - 'I've got Georgia on my mind..' Could be an exciting few months. The US end provides a steady backdrop.

RXP - 3D results due this Qtr (showing large pre-salt prospects, I guess) Are there any post salt wells drilling? (I am not sure....) MXP has shot up on a sigh of relief this month - could be that RXP is next.

SIA - I am not absolutely convinced that we have heard the last about TGD, and the Congo well might surprise us all.

SLE - Another one with a lot coming up next year. Could rise as the pilot shale processing plant nears commissioning early next year (13.7Bn bbls STOIIP - but in shale, of course).

SQZ - I wish I could say that Marindan will be a success. Spudded 27 Oct (30 day well on a dry hole basis). The company's record is poor. Still, if they do hit gas then 20% might be an easy climb (but possibly not until December)

For the UP competition, may I please go for EME? I am reasonably hopeful.... (or stupidly optimistic maybe?)

No down thanks.

AA

alano20

31st Oct '10

Up 20% - SIA, as it has fallen too far I think
Down 20% - DES, as it has risen too far high.

Impvesta

31st Oct '10

Up AST, Ascent Resources please. It has drifted down again over the last week, after showing signs of improvement, and I am hopeful that good news is just round the corner on a number of fronts.

No down.

safetyfirst

31st Oct '10

Hmmm. For Up. Either:

HOIL - Expecting TD of Miran West appraisal well in next few weeks.

KYS- Long term future of the Pakrut gold project will be decided after NOV EGM. Should rerate once finance sorted.

Hopefully both for more than 20% because I hold many, but I will go for KYS because of SW10's law applied to miran.

Down:

RKH - Still don't get it....

REO100

31st Oct '10

I'll go for GBP up, no down.

They have recently indicated they are looking at opportunities, this might be the month (they have been looking for a while !). If it has any appeal the board on ADVFN is on ready mode to push the SP.

Reo

emptyend

1st Nov '10

So far this is the only Stocko entry! Is everyone reverting back to TMF?

For some reason I missed the thread. It must have got pushed down active view quickly.

Making the usual exceptions, I will go for SOCO International (LON:SIA) to recover the unjustified part of recent losses and put on 20% and I'll join the throng of Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) sceptics for the down.

doverbeach

1st Nov '10

Yes I too missed the thread.

I'll go for Circle Oil (LON:COP) to rise - not because there is any big news due, but because it is looking so oddly undervalued and surely someone will realise this at sometime?

No down.

db

Fangorn

1st Nov '10

SIA up for me too. Fallen too far on both the TGD and Congo disappointments. Topped up myself (my modest holding) at 305...so here's hopign for a steady rise.

Down: `DES as well.

djpreston

1st Nov '10

Yep, I missed it too, so just stuck pci down on tmf.

Db - can't disagree with you re COP. No real news other than Al Ola but it just appears insanely undervalued and overlooked. Utterly bizarre. They do need to address their PR though. I had hopes it would have improved when Green took over but sadly not. COP's starting to look vulnerable ivo cash, cashflow (egypt and Morocco) surely being valued at more than current mkt cap and explo upside.

D

loglorry

1st Nov '10

Circle Oil (LON:COP) is frustrating me too - however I'm trying to untangle Thomas Anderson's role in Minmet. He might be the same Tom Anderson involved in Minmet in 2008 and if so I'd like to know because he is chairman of COP. I'm not quite sure he was even one of the bad guys in Minmet but if he is one and the same and was a baddie (as my 4 year old describes them) I think I'd be tempted to leave this one well alone.

As for SOCO International (LON:SIA) although S'Pedia should perhaps be renamed www.soco-fan-club.com I'm not sure it is likely to think it can tack on 20% from 310p in a month. That is another 62p from here which would be 372p. Although possible there has to be more chance with so of the other names out there. The downside from here though is much better protected than other stocks in the E&P world.

My down has to be Chariot Oil & Gas (LON:CHAR) or Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) as they are both way too high. DES has a pretty good chance of coming up dry especially as they seem to be dithering further on the current side-track. If they come up with nothing then they are worth almost zilch. Probably the trade though if they come up dry is to short Rockhopper as Rockhopper will find it very hard to commercialise their find on their own so far away from infrastructure.

I'm going for Xcite Energy (LON:XEL) for my up 20%. It is a tagged on certainty to rise >20% if they get a decent flow result from Bentley which is by no means a tagged on certainty. However it is probably 50/50 at least which is good enough for competition betting! I hold XEL and COP. Would short Desire if my spreadbetter would let me :-)

Log

jonnyt

1st Nov '10

Difficult one this month.

I see Ascent Resources as one possibility IF and I mean IF they do actually spud PG-11 as promised and/or get agreement over the ownership of the tight deep reservoirs with Stratics new owners.

Then we have Roxi Petroleum. They are supposed to now have two rigs drilling on BNG post salt prospects, NK22 redrill results are also due as are the 3D seismic's that could potentially reveal very large post salt targets given the proximity to the super giant Tengiz oil field.

What about good old Petrolatina. Seems to be 1 step forwards and two back. This month should finally see Gas production start which will bring in very meaningful additional production, we should also now have another Colon well on production, and results from some more explo

I'm going for Roxi Petroleum

stock sleuth

1st Nov '10

Log,

I've read one wit call it Socopedia.

Up - Petroneft Resources (LON:PTR)

Down - Petrolatina Energy Plc (LON:PELE)

emptyend

2nd Nov '10

I've read one wit call it Socopedia.

You can laugh all you like. Some of us will still be holding the shares when the true value becomes clear in (cash) terms that even the dumbest analyst can understand. :-)

flyingbull

4th Dec '10

A little bit late this month for me to post the Dec results, consequent of air travel disruptions from the snow and cold
weather recently. Many thanks for Ryanandbethan for helping with tabulating the entries. Really made my job easier when compiling the prices. The Dec results are as follows:-

>20% Up Competition Results:

The great TGG did it nice 'n' easy with a mere 93% gain with BLVN, fantastic results!!! "Possibly" more to come with the deeper zone of the well....

>20% Down Competition Results:

Uncertain drilling results with no well tests and cold weather blues for MATD. Congratulations to the five: Christian12, Fatprophet, flyingbull, Squareloss and TGG (again!!!)!!!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

>20% Up Results:

15.4%	Average

93.0%	BLVN	TGG	Fool
70.8%	XEL	Jimarilo	Fool
70.8%	XEL	LuckyJonah	Fool
70.8%	XEL	Wistman	Fool
70.8%	XEL	Buyhard	Fool
70.8%	XEL	Loglorry	Stockopedia
46.1%	PTR	Stock Sleuth	Stockopedia
30.4%	AMER	Fatprophet	Fool
26.6%	DPL	Robs5	Fool
24.8%	SQZ	Hywel	Fool
24.8%	SQZ	FleecednFlogged	Fool
23.3%	RRL	Redsloe	Fool
21.4%	AST	MarkC2010	Fool
21.4%	AST	Squareloss	Fool
21.4%	AST	Impvesta	Stockopedia
18.2%	GKP	JPGH	Fool
13.3%	PCI	Flyingbull	Fool
13.3%	PCI	Petroleum1	Fool
13.3%	PCI	DJP	Fool
13.2%	CAZA	Simon Bayliss	Fool
8.2%	SIA	Luminoso	Fool
8.2%	SIA	Eastheath	Fool
8.2%	SIA	KYU66	Fool
8.2%	SIA	Maffs0	Fool
8.2%	SIA	TUX222	Fool
8.2%	SIA	Alan020	Stockopedia
8.2%	SIA	EE	Stockopedia
8.2%	SIA	Fangorn	Stockopedia
8.0%	HOIL	Private Piles	Fool
8.0%	HOIL	Safetyfirst	Stockopedia
7.8%	AEX	Casanare	Fool
7.8%	AEX	DBFROMGB	Fool
4.9%	DES	RBCRBC	Fool
4.9%	DES	The Vampire	Fool
3.8%	SLG (Canada)	Wshak	Fool
0.1%	GBP	REO100	Stockopedia
-0.5%	DGO	EWM55	Fool
-2.1%	COP	Doverbeach	Stockopedia
-2.3%	PELE	GHH	Fool
-2.4%	EO.	Ryanandbethan	Fool
-2.7%	MXP	Spacedoubt	Fool
-3.3%	AFR	jimla53	Fool
-4.5%	EME	Christian12	Fool
-4.5%	EME	AbAngus	Stockopedia
-6.4%	VGAS	Devymaster	Fool
-7.6%	FPM	Cranbrook2	Fool
-7.6%	FPM	Haoma	Fool
-8.4%	VPP	Corporal Cromarty	Fool
-8.5%	RXP	JonnyT	Stockopedia
-10.0%	VST (Canada)	Gary1966	Fool
-12.0%	ENEG	CityTTrader	Fool

>20% Down Results:

10.0%	Average

-30.9%	MATD	Christian12	Fool
-30.9%	MATD	Fatprophet	Fool
-30.9%	MATD	Flyingbull	Fool
-30.9%	MATD	Squareloss	Fool
-30.9%	MATD	TGG	Fool
-16.1%	HAWK	Luminoso	Fool
-12.0%	ENEG	MarkC2010	Fool
-7.6%	FPM	ChrisWalden	Fool
-7.6%	FPM	KYU66	Fool
-7.6%	FPM	Wistman	Fool
-3.2%	RKH	Safetyfirst	Stockopedia
-3.1%	CHAR	Devymaster	Fool
-3.1%	CHAR	Loglorry	Stockopedia
-3.1%	CHAR	Ryanandbethan	Fool
-3.1%	CHAR	Wshak	Fool
-2.3%	PELE	Stock Sleuth	Stockopedia
3.9%	FRR	RBCRBC	Fool
4.9%	DES	Alan020	Stockopedia
4.9%	DES	Buyhard	Fool
4.9%	DES	Casanare	Fool
4.9%	DES	CityTTrader	Fool
4.9%	DES	Corporal Cromarty	Fool
4.9%	DES	DJP	Fool
4.9%	DES	Eastheath	Fool
4.9%	DES	EE	Stockopedia
4.9%	DES	Fangorn	Stockopedia
4.9%	DES	Hywel	Fool
4.9%	DES	jimla53	Fool
4.9%	DES	LuckyJonah	Fool
4.9%	DES	MrContrarian	Fool
4.9%	DES	Private Piles	Fool
4.9%	DES	Simon Bayliss	Fool
7.8%	AEX	EWM55	Fool
18.2%	GKP	Redsloe	Fool
21.5%	TRP	Spacedoubt	Fool
44.1%	EOG	GHH	Fool
70.8%	XEL	Haoma	Fool
70.8%	XEL	JPGH	Fool
70.8%	XEL	TUX222	Fool
87.5%	PMG	FleecednFlogged	Fool
87.5%	PMG	Maffs0	Fool
87.5%	PMG	Robs5	Fool

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Flyingbull

14 comments

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