Niko Resources - An Elephant that can gallop?

Wednesday, Apr 20 2011 by

Given there as been quite a bit of discussion about NKO following the First Energy Global Energy Conference last year, I thought it would make sense to give it its own thread.

The overview  on the company website gives access to a wealth of information on their operations. Click on each area around the globe for a v brief overview and then click in the blocks for more detail on ownership etc.

Essentially, Niko has been something of a wonder stock over the past few years based upon the success of its Indian Venture. At the core is the D6 block in the Krishna Godavria Basin where they have 10% interest. "10% is that all?" I hear you say, well in this case 10% of D6 is a lot. Current production of c170Mscf/d net to NKO and planned increases to 280M scf/d eventually.

The company has repaid its debt and is now very cash generative so the company can fund its exploration out of current cash flows even before further expansion of production (or price increase for the gas from D6).

Alongside India the company has built up an incredible acreage position in many areas as shown in the overview mentioned above.

The biggest acreage wise is Indonesia, where, IIRC, Niko is the largest acreage holder offshore.

Trinidad has also been significantly increased with further acreage acquired just this week (19/4/11).

Kurdistan is interesting, especially in the short term, where it is involved with Vast in the Qara Dagh license as operator (and 10% equity holder in Vast). News on QD is fairly short term.

And lets not forget the current "Jewel in the Crown" of India.

Oh, before we get to the tour of the NKO goodies, I should say a couple of other things. NKO also pays a dividend!! Okay, a miniscule one but its there. NKO is ISA’ able and shouldn’t pose any real trouble trading with decent liquidity, as you would expect for a $4.5bn market cap.

One of my niggles with the company though is that they are not the most transparent with regard to information. There does, however, seem to have been a realisation of this with the level of communications improving significantly of late. 


Without doubt, the discovery of the giant gas fields in Block D6 in the Krishna Godavari Basin (KG) by Reliance (90%) was the making of Niko and is the foundation for the company’s current wealth of opportunities.

D6 has 40Tcf in place and is currently producing around 1.7 Bcf/d and 20k bpd of liquids. There are 23 undeveloped discoveries (with many more explo targets) in the block which will allow for further increases of gas production to the peak which is estimated to be 2.8bcf/d. However, the shares took a knock with the Q3 results due to the lower production from D6 than had been expected. This was due to a dispute (ongoing) between Reliance and the Indian Govt. over price and development.

D6 gas is sold under long term sales agreement at $4.2 per mcf as mandated by the Govt. Other producers are receiving $8 or better and end users are paying up to $11 per mcf or LNG. Obviously there is an argument for the price being higher and increased production as a result. This would be very positive for NKO’s cash flow, which, as mentioned above, already allows them to cover their planned activity across the portfolio.

A key development was the announcement of the BP deal to take a 30% in 23 of Reliance’s Indian oil and gas blocks (including the 3 in which Niko is a partner) for $7.2bn initially. This triggered an option whereby NKO can increase its own interest by 30% i.e. from 10% to 13% in D6. This is very likely to happen and would be funded by debt. Again, this is positive from cash flow and valuation metrics.

NEC25 in the Bay of Bengal is another block where NKO has 10% (with a potential to go to 13% due to BP). 15 discoveries to date with many additional explo targets.

D4 is a giant of a block at 4.2m acres. NKO have 15% (can go to 19.5% due to BP). 4,400km2 of 2D and 3,500 of 3D has been completed and a three well program is slated for this year (2011). The block is seen by many as being a potential D6 or even bigger.

India looks to be a very solid core and financial driver for NKO’s exploration program. This is what interest me most of all given the sheer scale of what is being pursued. What really interests me is the fact that the company has giant partners and has secured good farm ins from the likes of Repsol that mitigate financial exposure whilst still retaining very material stakes.


Niko have been working on Indonesia for many years now, carrying out a 400,000 km2 Multi Beam survey between Dec 2006 and April 2008. They applied their own Sea Seep technology to find seeps and then use this to focus their attention on areas where there was an active petroleum system. On top of this Niko has a database of 70,000 km of 2D, 11,000 km2 of 3D, 110,000 line km of grav and mag data, 5,000 km2 of aeromag data and over 3,000 Sea Seep geochem analysis of cores taken in relation to the multibeam survey. In short, they have a lot of data.

That isn’t enough for Niko though, they are about to start a second multibeam survey over 300,000 km2 using the latest generation equipment generated by the US Navy who developed it with one of the Niko Indonesian tech team seconded (a very good vote of confidence there). This new survey should, as a result be conducted quicker and offer better resolution. Given the attention being given to the area by the majors, agreements have been put in place to swap drilling data to the benefit of all. These companies include – Exxon, Marathon, Conoco, Statoil, Talisman, Murphy and Hess.

Another possible advantage for Niko is that they have built up their acreage via strategic acquisitions. For example Voyager Energy’s team had worked on Indonesia for much of their working careers, often with each other. Black Gold added another technical team. Of the 60 odd employees in country, 35 are techs. The majority of the team had worked together at Unocal before it was bought out by Chevron. Whilst at Unocal the team were very active, drilling roughly 150 deep water wells in SE Asia (mostly Indonesia) between 1,000m and 2,400m water depths.

We have just had the first of the announcements from the company of Independent Resource Estimates on 3 of the 16 licenses carried out by Netherland Sewell.   Further announcements on the remaining 13 licenses will be released regularly from here on in.



Prospective Resources (P50mmbbls)


Low CoS

High CoS

Mid CoS

SE Ganal






N Makassar







West Sageri








Niko has 100% WI in SE Ganal and North Makassar Strait with 50% in West Sageri.

Volume calcs were based on a 50% prob that each prospect is oil and 50% gas.

NS calculated the CoS for each prospect. Mid is Niko’s mean of low and high estimates.












That is just the first 3 blocks. The 16 blocks cover 19.7 million acres and it is the largest leaseholder other than the government. In addition, Niko is in various stages of discussions for 5 farm-ins and two bids (open tenders) that could push up the number of blocks to 23 by the end of the year (2011). Remember that Niko have always said that they would not acquire a block unless it had at least 1 bn boe potential.

The company has said that it is planning a 3 year continuous drilling program in the country from late Q4 2011, probably Q1 2012. This is just in respect of the blocks where they are the operator. Other non operated blocks will see activity, adding to the number of wells to be drilled. The Partners are, it has to be said, big – Repsol, Marathon and Exxon. Marathon’s Bone Bay well should be the first to spud.

The company should benefit from being able to offer a long term contract and so should be able to get advantageous day rates. Given the range of prospects (water depth etc) Niko will most likely draft in a second rig from time to time to tackle the shallow water wells.


Yesterday, Niko announced that it has signed three new PSCs,

bringing the total up to 8. Again, like Indonesia, Niko is the largest leaseholder outside the government. The announcement relating to the new PSCs gives a breakdown of the licences, interests and acreage.

The offshore fields are mainly gas orientated and the partners on two of the blocks include RWE and BG, both sensible with a view to any commercialisation of any discovery since both have major experience with LNG around the world. BG is also part of the consortium that owns the Atlantic LNG facility in Trinidad as is Repsol, which is, of course, a major partner of Niko in Indonesia.

Looking at the various licenses, the Central Range Block (CRB), 2AB and Guayaguayare blocks are on trend with the prolific E Venezuela Basin which extends to the East of Trinidad and includes the Angostura gas/condensate discovery (80M bbls and 1tcf).

A new 1,200 km2 3D survey is ongoing in Block 2AB to supplement the older 3D data it already has. The new data will verify what the company has already identified form the older generation with 2 prospects that stand out. The first is the Stalin with a risked est. recoverables of 200M bbls to 500M bbls and a second, Shadow, being a shale play.

In the CRB, Niko has already identified similar prospects to those seen on 2AB from the 2D data it shot 18 months ago. We should see the first of two wells (at least) spud in the Shallow Horizon CRB in the next month or so.

Guayaguayare is, like the CRB, split shallow and deep with several features already identified. 3D seismic is to be acquired and the first well will be likely on the Deep Beach prospect in Q1 2012.

NCMA2 & NCMA3 are immediately East of 3 producing gas fields, Poinsetta, Hibiscus and Chaconia, which are estimated to have 5Tcf recoverable which is being delivered to the Atlantic LNG terminal. Niko is teaming up with Centrica, who own NCMA4 (and is also NKO’s partner in 2AB)  to shoot 4,600 km2 of 3D over the two blocks, 2,900 of which will cover all of NCMA2 & NCMA3 starting in Q3 and likely to run to Q1 2012.

The “RNS” re the new blocks doesn’t actually cover it but NKO has a 25% interest in Block 5(c) which was acquired in December last year.[1].pdf  This block already has 3 gas discoveries on it. The block offsets the producing Dolphin field (BG and Chevron) again producing to the Atlantic terminal. The Victory 1 well was tested in December 2007 with two tests on two different formations. The first tested 40-45mmcf/d and the second did 30 mmcf/d and both tests were constrained by equipment. In mid 2008, Bounty 1 tested at a stabilised 60mmcf/d (2.5km East of Victory). Endeavour 1, some 8.4km North of Bounty 1, tested 60mmcf/d. All three wells were suspended but could ultimately be put on production. NKO’s estimates are that the 3 discoveries total up to 2.5Tcf with several undrilled structures remaining on the block.

Block 4(c) is immediately to the North of Block 5(c) with 1,000 km2 of 3D available. Already several channel fairways and stacked sands have been identified.


Some people get excited by Kurdistan, others don’t. I tend to fall into the later category given the seemingly never-ending political wrangling between the KRG and the Iraqi Oil Ministry which makes commercialising any discovery a dream at the moment. Nevertheless, NKO has a 37% interest in the Qara Dagh well being drilled by Vast Exploration. It also holds a 10% interest in Vast itself.

Recent update on the QD1 well, (which spudded on 12 May 2010) was positive with the logs showing 143 m of possible pay in the Upper Cretaceous (Tanjero and Upper Shiranish formations). The top of the Shiranish is the first of the three initial primary Cretaceous targets estimated to be at 3420m. Increased florescence and gas readings were seen in cuttings which could suggest oil or liquids.

The well had been drilled to 3558m with a 7” liner set. The plan is to now drill on to the TD of 4200m which some analysts think means it may not drill through the deeper Qamchuqa formation. This would reduce the potential In Place numbers but the Unrisked IP nos were estimated by AJM to be 2.25 bn bbls so we are talking big numbers here. There is also the Aliiji formation which was drilled through in July 2010 that had a 64m net pay zone with strong indications of hydrocarbons. This will be tested as part of the overall testing program which is expected to be completed in June.

As I say, Kurdistan is not the main reason for holding NKO in my opinion, but a discovery here would be potential material but there are the risk re government and also a possible repeat of HOIL where the initial positives (for oil) turned into a multi tcf gas play).

A second well planned for the block will not be drilled until mid 2012.


Niko has 4 blocks (100% WI) in the Indus Basin, the second largest fan system in the world. The blocks total 2.45M acres and NKO has 2,000 km2 of 3D data from 2 separate programs.

Pakistan has long been a frustration for the international oil companies with recent offshore explo activities disappointing. The previous drilling has focussed on the shallow Miocene whereas Niko is looking to opportunities it has identified in the Cretaceous to pre Miocene levels. Positive AVO responses have been noted on several Eocene channel prospects as leads on Palaeocene carbonate build-ups with at least 20 opportunities being identified to date from the different play types. There is no drilling location planned yet since the company has to complete the 3D analysis. The first of a 2 well program is planned for early Q1 next year (2012) and they are sourcing a rig and tubulars. Water depth here isn’t a problem (mostly sub 200M). Whilst a 4km well would cost roughly $40M, Niko has 100$ so I would expect to see a farm down to say 50% to mitigate costs.


Over the course of the next month, Niko should complete the processing of the 3,200km2 of 3D that it acquired last year (2010). It also has around 10,000km2 of multibeam data available. A variety of play types (stratigraphic and Cretaceous channels) have been identified and oil seeps processed during the multibeam acquisition provide evidence of an active petroleum system extending out from the big heavy oil fields on shore. The first explo well could spud in H2 2012. Given the recent experience of investors and companies in Madagascar (MOIL) and the political problems of the country, I don’t attach any real value (yet).


I didn’t really know where to put Bangladesh. It’s a cash flow situation really, not massively material to the upside story for the company with most analysts carrying around the $3/shr PV10. Onshore operations with the main Block 9 (60% WI) operated by Tullow. Current production (gross is 120M scf/d).


Well that’s about it for now. That puts a bit more “meat” on the bones (or into the thread header anyway). Apologies for any spelling, grammar and other errors but hopefully that gives everyone a better idea about the company.

Disclosure. We do hold a goodly chunk of NKO stock

Filed Under: Niko Resources, Oil, Energy,


The opinions expressed by the author are those made by him personally as an individual and not in any professional capacity. 

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136 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

djpreston 3rd May '11 77 of 136

Last night, First Energy issued a new note on NKO.

This one covers the information from the Investor Day recently and is a very comprehensive look at NKO's exploration programme as well as the issue of NAP/NPV sensitivities when it comes to Indian gas prices.

The net effect is to raise their 12 month price target to $150 from $125, which is their risked NAV 12 months out. Helpfully they break down their figures for the activity (based on current plans) over the coming 1,2 and 3 years. This gives net risked NAv's for explo only of $88 in the current 12 months then $93 and $113 or a total of $295

A very useful bit of background reading.

Dont forget that NKO are looking at 20 wells per year for the next three years and that management hope to increase the Indonesian licences from16 at the moment to 22-24 over the next twelve months.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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djpreston 4th May '11 78 of 136

Well, $75 earlier today seems like a good point to top up imo. That makes NKO one of our biggest positions.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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Mattybuoy 5th May '11 79 of 136

Not only is Niko's income dependent on WTI, it is in fact (like all other commodity stocks) a silver miner.

Read Zero Hedge -

This sort of environment makes investing on fundamentals completely impossible.

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marben100 6th May '11 80 of 136

In reply to Mattybuoy, post #79

Mattybuoy - the keyword there is "investing". Whilst the markets may do crazy things in the short run, it's the long run I'm interested in. And like djp on Wednesday, today's price looks like a genuine bargain to me - so rather than being disturbed by the craziness, for me it's a great buying opportunity, which I too took advantage of today, at even better price that Darron's :-P.

I expect that we will be well rewarded at some point over the next 5 years. I am perfectly happy to sit back and wait.


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djpreston 6th May '11 81 of 136

As an aside (partly to ignore Mark's better price then mine!!), I see that Hardy Oil (LON:HDY) have announced they are NOT going to exercise the ROFR triggered by the BP deal on Reliance acreage.

Simply put, seems Hardy Oil (LON:HDY) couldn't afford it. They needed the cash for ongoing work and probably couldn't raise a debt issue (or a funding issue). Quite a contrast with NKO.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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uncommon13 12th May '11 82 of 136

In reply to djpreston, post #81

Even though Hardy Oil (LON:HDY) didn't take up the deal, HDY has a market cap of about £158 million only and its 10% D3 stake is worth £305 million (almost twice as much!) according to the BP deal?

What is interesting, however, is that the option consideration, of US$150 million for three per cent, implies a gross value of US$5 billion for the D3 exploration licence.  According to this calculation, this would value Hardy’s ten per cent stake at US$500 million.


Does anyone know the value implications of the BP deal for NKO's stakes in D6, NEC 25 and D4 and what the read across value is, especially for the producing D6 block? Unfortunately, neither BP nor NKO specified the individual block values in the US$7.2 billion deal:


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emptyend 12th May '11 83 of 136

In reply to uncommon13, post #82

Just a passing thought for those here.......if/when Cairn India's stake passes to Vedanta (expected by May 20th), what will Cairn do with the c.$7bn proceeds?

They've promised to return at least a chunk to what will shareholders do?

One would think that it can't hurt Niko (assuming the deal actually goes through!!).


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djpreston 12th May '11 84 of 136

In reply to uncommon13, post #82

Good point Uncommon

As you say, BP and Reliance have not split out block valuations at this time; however, it is fair to say that the valuation of the D3 Block is higher than I would have expected and therefore the value of the other bloakcs must therefore be lower (given the fixed price of the BP buy in). Thus the NKO blocks will be lower overall - with D6 obviously being one of the biggest elements of the valuation.

This means that NKO will be able to buy the extra interests at a lower price (so a lower debt issuance required) but obviously the value of their blocks is lower in aggregate.

We will see the details in due course but I still expect to see the ROFR exercised.

Personally I think that BP has done a cracking deal as the Gas prices will be increased in the comign months.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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uncommon13 13th May '11 85 of 136

In reply to djpreston, post #84

Thanks djpreston.

I don't see it as an overly negative situation for NKO if their blocks are valued relatively less because of the Hardy Oil (LON:HDY) deal...since NKO would be able to increase their interest in the blocks at a lower price and as you say, eventually when/if the gas prices are increased at a later date, then NKO's increased interest would make those blocks more valuable for NKO.

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djpreston 24th May '11 87 of 136

And another farm out deal announced, continuing the policy of bringing in world class operators - this time Statoil.

Interesting to also note that its not just a straight farm in but a wider JV for new opportunities. Now, we know that Niko is looking to further expand its already  huge acreage in INdonesia via new licenses but what else could it cover - Brazil perhaps (see Mattybuoy's post above). After all,m Statoil are no stranger to Brazil.  



CALGARY, ALBERTA (Marketwire – May 24, 2011) – Niko Resources Ltd. (“Niko”) (TSX: NKO). Niko

Resources Ltd. is pleased to announce that it has reached an agreement with Statoil ASA in which

Statoil, through its subsidiaries, will become a joint venture participant in the North Makassar Strait,

West Papua IV and Halmahera?

Kofiau Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) in Indonesia. As a result of the

agreement, Statoil will earn a 40% working interest in each PSC. The transfer of interest is pending

approval by the Government of Indonesia.

Niko is the operator of the PSCs and has acquired a total of approximately 5100km2

of 3D seismic data

and 2900km of 2D seismic data on the blocks. Niko is planning to drill wells on all three PSCS as part of

an extensive Indonesian deepwater drilling campaign, set to commence early 2012.

Niko and Statoil are also working together to develop additional new venture opportunities in Indonesia

with the objective of acquiring additional jointly held PSCs. In addition to Indonesia, Niko and Statoil are

investigating worldwide opportunities where the application of Niko’s expertise in multibeam

technology can provide a competitive commercial advantage.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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Mattybuoy 24th May '11 88 of 136

How about the Bahamas? I don't follow LSE:BPC but don't they have a JV with Statoil?

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djpreston 24th May '11 89 of 136

In reply to Mattybuoy, post #88

I like your thinking there Matty. Who knows? Certainly doesnt hurt having partners the quality of Niko's.

On a different matter, I see that Vast has updated with regards to ops in Kurdistan, whic is, of course, still of interest for NKO holders (though not my main interest in them of course). I cant see that NKO has issued an update yet (NKO are operator of course)

Drilling of the first exploration well on the Qara Dagh Block has reached a Total Depth of 3,908 meters. Drilling operations have been completed and logging of the open hole Cretaceous section below 3,558 meters has been initiated.

Subsequent to the completion of the logging operations, a flow test program will commence. The consortium partners have agreed to conduct a minimum of three tests across prospective intervals. The testing program is anticipated to be completed, and results available by end of June.


Fund Management: European Wealth
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djpreston 24th May '11 90 of 136

An interesting article on the whole saga re D6 and the gas price received:

Nothing new just elaborates on what I've said before. Essentially the govt has played hardball over pricing, demanding a frankly ludicrous $4.20 when other suppliers get much more and LNG is 3 times the price. If the gov wants more gas then they have to accept a more reasonable price.

How long the saga goes on for, its anyone's guess but higher D6 supplies at say $6-$6.50 would help meet India's pressing need for supplies and boost their economy (via substitution of more expensive sources).

Fund Management: European Wealth
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Mattybuoy 24th May '11 91 of 136

I wonder what sort of flow rate at Qara Dagh would be considered material enough for Niko to announce it? 10,000 bpd?

Whatever, as you say that's not the main reason to be here anyway.

I overcame my beta allergy today and scraped enough cash together for a single board lot at $74.88, but this time I won't be selling until it hits $1,000.

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Mattybuoy 24th May '11 92 of 136

Interesting looking at the top 20 TSX oil companies by market cap. Niko just squeezes in at number 20.

Lots of the more comparable companies towards the bottom are former income trusts, which are great but none of them have anything like the potential that Niko does. Most have Reserves measured in the 100ms of barrels at best.

The most glaring discrepancy is with Athabasca Oil Sands, which is years away from production and will need uber billions of capex to develop its admittedly huge oil sands resources.

Suncor Energy Inc. SU 68,598,205,280
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ 48,798,989,876
Imperial Oil Limited IMO 42,379,950,550
Cenovus Energy Inc CVE 27,391,343,797
Husky Energy Inc. HSE 26,865,895,780
Talisman Energy Inc. TLM 23,519,763,776
Encana Corporation ECA 23,377,344,079
Canadian Oil Sands Limited COS 15,813,881,353
Nexen Inc. NXY 13,646,493,616
Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG 11,642,378,022
Penn West Petroleum Ltd. PWT 11,526,064,591
MEG Energy Corp MEG 9,557,548,889
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. PRE 8,278,418,752
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 7,289,489,931
Baytex Energy Corp. BTE 6,729,801,926
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp ATH 6,175,710,860
Enerplus Corporation ERF 5,491,286,825
Lundin Petroleum AB LUP 4,584,270,564
Vermilion Energy Inc. VET 4,564,704,561
Pengrowth Energy Corporation PGF 4,369,659,061
Niko Resources Ltd. NKO 4,119,575,735
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djpreston 25th May '11 93 of 136

In reply to djpreston, post #87

Just a bit more detail re the Statoil farm out.

Statoil already have interests in the Makassar Straits, the Karama and Kuma PScs. Statoil has said that it has 3 committment wells to be drilled in Karama this year (2011) and 1 at Kuma. That could give some steer on North Makkassar ahead of their campaign.

As a guess, Id say that Statoil has probably agreed to fund one well per PSC (possibly with 1 or 2 more depending on which PSC they wish to follow up on). That should be worth a decent clip to NKO. As I say though, thats just a guess.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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djpreston 26th May '11 94 of 136

In reply to djpreston, post #90


Following on from post 90 above, this could be very very significant if true.

Essentially it seems a very sensible solution - anything produced over a base level woudl be available for sale at market rates. That could be the solution and spur the partners (RIL, NKO and BP) into progressing the D6 driling campaign, which has been somewhat dampened as a result of the deadlock.


Fund Management: European Wealth
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Mattybuoy 26th May '11 95 of 136

You mean the D6, D4 and NEC25 drilling campaign :-)

How many 100s of TCFs?

Looks like the market has picked up on that news ...

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uncommon13 26th May '11 96 of 136

In reply to djpreston, post #94

There's more news on Niko today regarding a possible deal in Trinidad although I believe most of the rise today may be due to the Indian D6 gas price news:

Niko Resources Ltd. (NKO.TO) is up 7.5%, adding $5.55 to $79.08 a share after Sonde Resources (SOQ.TO,SOQ) said government officials in Trinidad appear ready to approve Niko's bid to acquire the Mayaro-Guayaguayare Bay Block Exploration and Production license along with another block from Sonde.

Documents are now being prepared under the direction of the Ministry of Energy and Energy Affairs to allowing the property transfers to go through, Sonde said today in a statement. Sonde shares currently are up about 10% to $2.89 each

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