LON:NCYT | Novacyt Sa - Financial Analysis £NCYT

21st Jul '20 by Shaunm

49 comments 2717 reads

I have over the past eight months been actively monitoring Novacyt Sa (LON:NCYT) Novacyt SA and at the same time putting to paper my research work

A few members of this forum might be interested in this research (updated as at 16th January 2021)

Please find the link to my latest updated Financial Analysis for Novacyt SA,

The analysis is carried out in Excel, and then printed to a PDF.
The PDF is then downloaded to a FileBin directory, which you can then upload & view, I also down load some the previous versions in case there is any interest from anybody (Files are stored / downloadable for 7 days

Latest File download - Dated 16th January 2021, now consists of 69 pages.

https://filebin.net/yujd97baea...

The research is also now available on Dropbox (with additional documents)

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/jtgl2ffh6lv34ww/AABCsFP3cATopsJTbhJEwOc4a?dl=0

The analysis work is fairly detailed!

Would appreciate any feedback (positive or negative)!

Please note I have a financial interest in this stock holding and that I am a "amateur investor"

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Shaunm

28th Oct '20

Updated research can be found at https://filebin.net/obbxid0slw...

tripuram

thanks Shaunm.. somehow not able to reach the file due to security issues.. is it possible to provide a gist/summary?

pka

Hi Shaunm,

Thanks very much for your excellent summary of available information on Novacyt.

Try another Device? eg tablet etc

Key thing at the present is the Job Opportunities

Sales Manager - Global Channel accounts	London, South East England	£65,000 - £78,000	F/T	£70,000
International Sales Manager - Distributor Sales	London	£65,000	F/T	£65,000
PCR Field Application Specialist	Sheffield	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
PCR Field Application Specialist	Leeds	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
PCR Field Application Specialist	Birmingham	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
PCR Field Application Specialist	London	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
PCR Field Application Specialist	Leicester	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
PCR Technical Support Specialist	Southampton	Salary negotiable	12mths	£37,500
Sales Support Specialist	Hampshire	£25,000 - £30,000	12mths	£27,500
Territory Account Manager	Maidenhead	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
Territory Account Manager	Sunderland	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
Senior PCR Field Application Specialist	South, South East, London	£45,000 - £50,000	12mths	£47,500
Territory Account Manager	Leeds, West Yorkshire	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
Sales Support Specialist	East Midlands	£25,000 - £30,000	12mths	£27,500
Sales Support Specialist	Shropshire	£25,000 - £30,000	12mths	£27,500
Territory Account Manager	Newcastle	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
Territory Account Manager	Scotland and Ireland	No Information	No Info	£37,500
Logistics Coordinator	Southampton	£25,000 - £30,000	12mths	£27,500
Sales Support Specialist	Hampshire	£25,000 - £30,000	12mths	£27,500
PCR Technical Support Specialist	Southampton	Salary negotiable	12mths	£37,500
Territory Account Manager	Leeds	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
Territory Account Manager	Lincolnshire & the East Midlands	£35,000 - £40,000	12mths	£37,500
Staff Scientist	Chandlers Ford	£32,000	F/T	£32,000
Laboratory Scientist	Chandlers Ford	£40,000	F/T	£40,000
International Sales Manager - Distributor Sales	Camberley	£65,000 - £78,000	F/T	£70,000
Customer Service Administrator	Chandlers Ford	£22,000	F/T	£22,000
Staff Scientist	Chandlers Ford	£32,000	F/T	-
Senior Scientist	Chandlers Ford	£38,000	F/T	£38,000
Principal Scientist (Regulatory)	Eastleigh	Upto £55,000	F/T	£50,000
Customer Service Administrator	Eastleigh	£22,000	F/T	-
Research Associate	Eastleigh	Upto £26,000	F/T	£26,000
Laboratory Analyst	Eastleigh	Upto £32,000	F/T	£30,000
PCR Assay Design Scientist	Eastleigh		F/T	£30,000
Technical Support Specialist	Camberley	£30,000	12mths	£30,000
Production Scientist	Camberley	£32,000	F/T	£32,000
Quality Control Technician	Eastleigh	Upto £22,000	6mths	£22,000
Quality Assurance Specialist	Camberley	£35,000	F/T	£35,000


				£1,302,000
		Employers NI	13.8%	£179,676
		Employers Pension (Est)	5.0%	£65,100
		Total Payroll cost		£1,546,776

All these jobs have been posted since middle of September

https://novacyt.com/careers/

https://www.totaljobs.com/jobs-at/novacyt/jobs

https://www.reed.co.uk/jobs/novacyt/

https://cktechnical.co.uk/search/?phrase=Novacyt

Antehelion

I guess it is interesting that a large number of these open positions are limited to a 12 month contract;

This perhaps says something for a possible event horizon in terms of ability to sell+gain future sales/revenues for us investors (and also may be related to the company's expectation to need as many staff once covid is presumably vaccinated into some sort of submission).

Shame about the price since Monday, still 100% invested.

Expecting some good news shortly, however Governments are not the fastest when negotiating multi-million contracts

ps, Thanks for the compliment, it is great doing the research, one of my challenges in Life! London South East forum members have been "great contributors to the research"

It is a sad thing, but this virus is not going to be departing this world shortly.

Economically, this Pandemic is going to be a horrendous, far worse than the 1930s

Afraid, we are only at the very early stages of an "economic crisis"

It seems the markets are now just awakening https://tradingeconomics.com/s...

14th Nov '20

Latest File download available at https://filebin.net/yujd97baea...

laurie

17th Nov '20

£NCYT From interims, dated 26.ix.19:

Long Term Incentive Plan

Novacyt granted certain employees 'phantom' shares under a long term management incentive plan adopted on 1 November 2017. The exercise price is set at the share price on the grant date and the options will be settled in cash. The options will fully vest on the third anniversary of the grant date. The payment expenses are calculated under IFRS 2 "Share-based payments". The accounting charge is spread across the vesting period to reflect the services received and a liability recognized on the balance sheet.

I do not have exact figures; the company has not recently specified the detail behind the scheme, and I am sufficiently horrified to have not searched the admission document for details. My back of the envelope calculations indicate that the scheme paid out in cash on November 1st, when the share price was c. £10.50, somewhere between 23 and 30 million pounds. Mr Mullins bought half a million pounds of shares shortly after. There have been previous charges against profits of at least 4.7 mil (at the interims).

I HAVE NOT CONFIRMED MY UNDERSTANDING WITH THE COMPANY.

On the bright side, all of the warrants appear to have been exercised so that it is clearer that there are 70.6 million shares in issue.

disclosure: I am not currently holding.

There is a slight typo in the info I've given, apologies to all-

The charge (I believe against profit) is at least 4.17 mil (not 4.7), rising negligibly over the period (i.20-vi.20) and included in the interims under provisions (section 15).

I have emailed Novacyt to ask for details of the LTIP payment to directors. I will report on the response if a response arrives.

Kieranj077

Hi Shaunm,

The URL didn't work for me, unfortunately. Do you have an alternative download location?

Cheers :)

20th Nov '20

Here is my correspondence with Investor Information at Novacyt, including information in italics taken from RNS. My current guess concerning the LTIP payout is c.14.8 million pounds.

Dear Mandy Cowling,

How much cash did the LTIP payout? I am having difficulty calculating this from available information.

Can you confirm that this was paid on November 1st?

Are there currently any other LTIPs in existence?

Thank you,

Laurie xxxxxx, private investor

Dear Laurie,

The current LTIP scheme is explained in our Annual Report & Accounts (see 2019) https://novacyt.com/financial-reports/#1600339350926-e05b413e-b49a

The pay-out under this scheme in 2020 will be disclosed as part of the 2020 accounts.

Kind regards,

Mandy

Yes, I saw that, but there isn't enough information to work out how much the payout was. My estimates varied between £23million and a bit over £29 million paid to two directors this November. I suppose I can ask if my estimate is correct by posting on a bulletin board or public share blog, but I would rather have accurate info from the company. Was it 4% of Novacyt's market capitalization on Nov. 1st, minus c. 58p a share?

Long Term Incentive Plan Novacyt granted certain employees to purchase shares under a long-term management incentive plan adopted on 1 November 2017. The exercise price is set at the share price on the grant date and the options will be settled in cash. The options will fully vest on the third anniversary of the grant date. The payment expenses are calculated under IFRS 2 “Share-based payments”. The accounting charge is spread across the vesting period to reflect the services received and a liability recognised on the statement of financial position

Morning,

Apologies if our answer is not detailed enough but we are not prepared to disclose further details in relation to the LTIP at this stage. These amounts will be disclosed in full as part of the 2020 accounts when they can be viewed in the context of our overall financial performance.

22nd Nov '20

No alternative download location

Either 1) try another device, eg a tablet

2) Get a friend to download & email to you

3) email me at novacyt.shaunp@btinternet.com, then I email the file

Westway001

I think they probably deserve it.

Wilbraham

I had no joy as Chrome and other browsers blocked the download site. Then I delved into the options on my Brave browser, that is far better for the Daily Mail and other newspaper sites as it blocks all the horrid distracting flashing links and videos. Brave gives an option to ''Download link in private window with Tor''.........and that worked fine. Don't know why - I thought Tor was associated with Silk Road and other dodgy sites!

I couldn't work out from Shaun's latest figures how much the projections for 2021 Q1-4 have been shaded back to reflect the encouraging vaccine news of the past 2-3 weeks.

25th Nov '20

Question "how much the projections for 2021 Q1-4 have been shaded back to reflect the encouraging vaccine news of the past 2-3 weeks.

I haven 't had the need to scale back the sales revenues, they assumed in 2021 that there would either be Vaccine implementation or the general population rising immunity. 2nd half sales in 2021 are much lower than the 1st half.

So I hope this helps

So no change since the 12th report dated 10th October 2020

10th Dec '20

New updated Research Report as at 6th December 2020 - Issue No 16

Fonzey11

11th Dec '20

Thanks for putting this on Shaun,

16th Dec '20

ABT upping the steaks in rapid home-use testing

https://seekingalpha.com/news/...

17th Jan '21

New updated Research Report as at 16th January 2021 - Issue No 18

Novacyt Sa - Financial Analysis £NCYT

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Shaunm

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