| Octane October For >20%.....

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27th Sep '13 by flyingbull

7 comments 5437 reads

For the October 2013 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the October competition is midnight on Monday 30 September 2013. Results will be posted on this thread asap after the month end.

Good luck!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

7 comments

Fangorn

27th Sep '13

Didn't quite work out as I was expecting . The large Post Court Case resolution inspired jump has been eroded, up 27% on the day of the announcement,closing up 17%, to now being a lowly 196 odd.

For October. again has to be GKP for 20% up
For the down GPX.

Proselenes

27th Sep '13

Up - Exillion - EXI - takeover in progress. Should be 450p plus if fair value, but I would be happy with anything 300p +,

Down - SER - got to be more fund raising and dilution coming and they are a bag of ..............

emptyend

30th Sep '13

Dull to say it, I know, but I'm going for SOCO International (LON:SIA) on the up 20% this month. Reasons:

I expect the final TGT-10XST1 well test to be announced in the next few days and that it will greatly exceed expectations. I have pencilled in the total for the tests on this well to be in the range 32,000-36,000 bopd (plus associated gas), based on the rationale laid out here. The market seems to be expecting 5-10,000 less than that (judging from BB comments). The first two test have totalled 16,500bopd+.
40p per share payouts will be hitting shareholders accounts from 14th October. Most of the press columns still seem to think that SOCO International (LON:SIA) pays no dividends - and I'd expecting increasing amounts of press and analyst comment pointing out that this isn't correct (especially when prompted by a headline-grabbing flow test).
The market will start looking forward to the reserves upgrade, as a result of positive comments about OOIP in this week's test results announcement. This could be quite substantial, IMO. I've tried guessing at some of the numbers here. The IMS is usually in early November, so I'd be expecting some considered comment in that concerning the reserves outlook.
IMO there is also the possibility of a range of events being announced which indicate that Vietnam is firmly on the block.
There has been a persistent institutional seller in recent weeks/months. Eventually he will run out of stock - or change his mind on the outlook.
The shares currently yield 10%+ (based on the 40p payout). Eventually someone will notice this......

richpickings

30th Sep '13

I am also dull! Soco International(LON:SIA) should make it this next month for up 20%. Did not happen last month but can you include the 10% return please. I was over eager. Same reasons as ee.

dbfromgb

30th Sep '13

I would have liked to also have gone with SIA this month. It's is my largest holding by far and for all the reasons mentioned here and elsewhere this should be a great month for it.

But whereas my head says Soco, my heart says Aminex AEX which is my selection for this month please. The news yesterday in the Tanzanian media that the gas policy is at its final stage means that what I believe to be the final impediment to a farm out will be removed.

AEX is unloved at the moment (for good reason) but subject to a gas sales agreement being concluded is IMHO oversold. Without going into detail my mind has been pondering

Prices for gas being quoted by Wentworth resources who are also (confidently) awaiting early signature of a gas sales agreement
Kiliwani production in just over a year. Possibly Ntorya as well.
Potential for oil in the transition zones.
COST RECOVERY!
Delonex
Fracking of the Frio sands
Activa
El Paso not going ahead with the Wilcox sands leaving it open for AEX to to reprise their Tullow deal.

I really do think that this will be the month both for the farm out and the USA sale, but in writing this do feel like the boy who cried wolf!

Impvesta

30th Sep '13

Up Soco (SIA) for me please. Fingers crossed this will be the month that sentiment swings positive with a vengeance!

flyingbull

5th Nov '13

No doubt about the winner for the >20% Up competition for October.
A whopping 200% gain for NPK! As usual key flowrate data to come that
is likely to determine the next set of share price movement. Big congrats
to Ohisay!!! Wish I bought some already….

The >20% Down competition is relatively mudane by comparison with the
Up comp. Still, SLE dropped the most with almost 20%, partly due to the
recent share placements. News flow from Morocco exploration and Fraccing
in Poland could help the share price to turn the corner in the next month
or two, or sink it further if news are -ive. Congrats to Peally for winning the
>20% Down comp!!!

The two set of results are shown below:

">20% Up" Competition Results:

8.1% Average

200.0% NFK (Canada) Ohisay Fool
32.3% FEP Fireplace22 Advfn
25.0% HAWK REO100 Fool
20.0% AEY Stephenwilson Advfn
17.9% JKX Thegreatgeraldo Fool
17.8% PRD (Canada) Thaiinvest Fool
14.4% EXI Squareloss Fool
14.4% EXI Slickreturns Fool
14.4% EXI Peally Fool
14.4% EXI Cimac Advfn
14.4% EXI Proselenes Stockopedia
1.2% SIA Compounder74 Fool
1.2% SIA Emptyend Stockopedia
1.2% SIA Richpickings Stockopedia
1.2% SIA Impvesta Stockopedia
-0.4% BLVN GHH Fool
-0.4% BLVN Wshak Fool
-0.4% BLVN Repobear Fool
-0.4% BLVN Holts Fool
-0.6% Ophr Casanare Fool
-0.7% CEO Johnnylite Fool
-0.7% CEO Fleecednflogged Fool
-1.3% TRAP Killerdriller Fool
-2.0% FAST Theesk Advfn
-3.4% AEX Ewm55 Fool
-3.4% AEX dbfromgb Stockopedia
-3.6% XEL Jimarilo Fool
-4.3% ENEG Flyingbull Advfn
-4.9% PCI Sawney Fool
-4.9% PCI Eastheath Fool
-6.4% PET Wezzy Advfn
-8.7% SMDR Redhill100 Fool
-10.3% GKP Saggy101 Fool
-10.3% GKP Fangorn Stockopedia
-12.6% JPRL Fatprophet Fool
-19.6% SLE Yossariancrazy Fool

">20% Down" Competition Results:

3.8% Average

-19.6% SLE Peally Fool
-10.3% GKP Yossariancrazy Fool
-10.3% GKP Wezzy Advfn
-8.6% QFI Holts Fool
-3.4% AEX Slickreturns Fool
-3.4% AEX Wshak Fool
-3.4% AEX Repobear Fool
-2.5% ZOL Cimac Advfn
-0.4% BLVN Eastheath Fool
2.6% GPX Fangorn Stockopedia
12.0% PPC GHH Fool
14.4% EXI Ewm55 Fool
15.2% EOG Killerdriller Fool
17.8% PMG Saggy101 Fool
17.8% PMG Fleecednflogged Fool
20.6% MTA Flyingbull Advfn
25.7% SER Proselenes Stockopedia

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Octane October for >20%.....

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Flyingbull

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