| October Odyssey For >20%.............

28th Sep '10 by flyingbull

45 comments 12999 reads

Another month is almost over, time seems to be passing by very quickly while we are having fun! :-)

For the October 2010 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the October competition is midnight on Thursday 30 September 2010.

Good luck!!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

45 comments

dbfromgb

30th Sep '10

No surprises frome me - still between EO, SIA, and AEX, and I am hoping that all three will do the business (and some more) this month for the reasons quoted above.

AEX please for the up.

No down.

Thanks FB.

safetyfirst

30th Sep '10

Knew u wouldnt let me down DB. Well to be different I will go with:

UP- AEX ;-) - On news of OM-10 and hopefully some news from ongoing pipeline reviews.

Down- RKH- Numbers dont add up no matter how much i spin them.

Isaac

30th Sep '10

UP: Heritage Oil (LON:HOIL)

On the back of...

a) Decent result from 2nd Miran well
b) UG Tax dispute settling in HOIL's favor
c) No one seems interested at the moment and it looks good value

Down: Sterling Resources (TSE:SLG)

a)Loads of people on these boards have bought it, loads of high expectations on the sidetrack, so setup to disappoint. I personally think more likely to be a success though.

b)When you pick the phone up to a well known retail broker, mention the letters SLG listed on TSE and he shouts out Sterling Resources and that loads of people have been buying the past few weeks, it makes you wonder.

As I indicated on my thread a week or two back, the small cap Oil sector is overheated. Infact I think most of the resource sector is. Who will be the last one caught with their hands in their pants?

I don't think one should exit a sector where the market is clearly blowing the wind behind it's back, because the irrationality can last much longer then most think. Therefore it's best to be nimble.......IMO.

djpreston

1st Oct '10

So in other words they're expensive but I'm not going to say sell now so either way my comments make me look like a genius? That about right?

Of course lots have been buying slg. Could it be owt to do with owning a major asset and then announcing a major/poSsibly huge oil find?

repobear

1st Oct '10

Hi Isaac,

I am pleased to see my ramping is making a difference;-)

When you look at some of the names on this - DJP, WShak, GHH, doverbeach,tgg, IronPyrites,loglorry, CaptainNelsonForties and loads more. Do you really think these guys are mugs and haven't checked the story out before investing a penny? Lessons were learned with Falcon too.

Some people have gone in big too and have a million or so shares. Scary huh?

Of course there's a bit of a bandwagon effect and some more flakey owners are jumping aboard and there could be a bit of a selloff on any disappointments. I don't think too many of the above have bought this for a quick turn .In fact a couple have been in since around 50c.

Anyway if you're looking at the potential for a quick reverse on disappointments, perhaps, you should look closer to home because there is also a lot of hope and expectation on something you own, and that share has a little bit of a mass following here and elsewhere, thanks to our esteemed ee.

IF i had to put money on it. Oops ooh I have a couple of quid on already I notice :-) I would think that the outcomes for both companies on near term drilling news will, most likely, be positive. If there are any disappointments serious investors just have to get on with it. Personally I have bought SLG for the whole story and intend to hold long term. I was of course aware that there was the potential for an Encore type lift off near term and would be a liar if I said that I didn't position myself to try to take full advantage of that. I studied the story carefully and only bought on the news of the second drilling success on Cladhan at the end of August. Do these things come in threes? Well we'll know soon enough.

repobear

Isaac

1st Oct '10

Repo/DJ

I expect SLG & SIA to do just fine over the long term - I did'nt say either was expensive. Just said there is a lot of interest in SLG albeit from clever fools. And a possibility that SLG can drop 20% over the next month providing a better opportunity to buy.

As for those names no they are not mugs, they bought much lower down, have a bigger downside protection then people buying now.

Some people have gone in big too and have a million or so shares. Scary huh?
No. Why? They are simply backing their call in a big way.

Of course there's a bit of a bandwagon effect and some more flakey owners are jumping aboard and there could be a bit of a selloff on any disappointments.

Yep. Just cos SLG maybe worth a sp closer to 5 does'nt mean it will be valued by the market as such, there are so many factors in play that determine the market price, the above being one.

And there are individuals out there who will take a quick 20% with the view of buying back cheaper.

Let's hope it doubles from here..... :-)

emptyend

1st Oct '10

Anyway if you're looking at the potential for a quick reverse on disappointments, perhaps, you should look closer to home because there is also a lot of hope and expectation on something you own, and that share has a little bit of a mass following here and elsewhere, thanks to our esteemed ee.

I'm not 100% sure which share you are referring to here but, whichever is the case, I think that there are two important differences with SLG:

a) There have been near zero attempts to demonstrate how cheap either share is in recent times (certainly not for the last 2-3 years). I have simply taken the view that the market will decide eventually and that anyone who hasn't worked it out by now doesn't deserve spoonfeeding. (and in one case, of course, I have disqualified myself from comment during the last 12 months)

b) Those who hold the shares concerned are, I'd suggest, much more likely to have been sellers recently rather than buyers, in order to fund purchases of the latest hot story to emerge in the sector (of which there has been no shortage in recent months!!)

Whilst I have no doubt that disappointments would result in some existing shareholders "giving up" on such companies, I'd rather doubt there would be a rush of hot money looking for an exit. Most investors are relatively long-term holders and are looking beyond the next piece of news anyway. That doesn't seem to be the situation with SLG, where large numbers have piled in recently and are keenly anticipating the arrival of imminent good news.

For once, I don't have any problem with Isaac's points of caution on SLG. Whilst nobody (including me) is expecting bad news per se on Cladhan, if some happened to arrive then that would be a serious shock. And even if the news is good, it is a moot point whether it will be good enough to keep driving the stock higher.

rgds

ps....incidentally, I also think that Isaac made a decent case for HOIL. Indeed few seem to be looking.

repobear

1st Oct '10

ee,

LOL, Isaac holding Aminex is about as likely as me getting a Saints season ticket;-)

Sure Soco has a much stronger longer term base of holders, but the point you are not directly addressing is that it's been three long years on TGD and whichever way it goes I detect that some people have had enough. Some are ready to topslice on good news, to take what they regard as better opportunities elsewhere. Some will crack on bad news and we all now how some people can change their tune pretty quickly, particularly on disappointment. Not everyone has your depth of understanding and determination to see it through, ee.

If you had looked at SLG properly and stuck down a back of the envelope valuation you'd know that the same arguments that you have applied recently to any potential price falls on any lack of serious good news on TGD would be shortlived. This is because there is not much in the price and there is plenty of potential good news from other sources.

The one serious difference between TGD and Cladhan is that whilst both are discoveries, Cladhan has flowed 15000 bopd equivalent which ain't too shabby in the NS. I believe it is commercial already and listening to the relevant part of the latest presentation is pretty convincing if you look at the numbers on the slides and what is said about them.

If the price crashes because they find an OWC at the third time of asking, I'll go and buy some more because the potential in, the rest of the portfolio really is something special and I'll probably sell some SIA to fund the purchase.

repobear

SW10Chap

1st Oct '10

now just a bit of speculation on my behalf... if it takes longer for the rns then they are drilling further or have had to drill further, which is good for share holders...

Or have run into some kind delay-inducing of problem. You've been around long enough not to draw the same conclusion as ScotsLass.

SW10

repobear

1st Oct '10

Hi SW10,

That's a fair point but I have also been around long enough to check through her posts and what is said about her. For whatever reason she appears to have her sources and they appear to be good.

I bought some more SLG at the open yesterday after cleared funds had arrived from the UK. Her 'news' as such is encouraging but hasn't influenced my investment decisions. I was always going to buy more SLG shares with that money.

What I would say if there is anything like that amount of oil in place those guys must be having one hell of a job controlling the situation and some delays can be expected. She does actually say it was slow progress too.

Here it is in full

http://www.lse.co.uk/member-info.asp?nick=scotslass

''Subject to rns, i would look at it in a positive reflection.... after all say' if they drilled the 8.5" section to td on sunday, and lets just say they found no OWC but a mass of oil bearing sands .. maybe in the region of 900ft +/- which is a LOT more than what they initally thought !!! so they would have to run another liner, dur to pressure's approaching there kick tollerance. Now if they are drilling a 6.6" hole ( which i believe is quite rare ) to try and find the edge of this beast.. so if it was taking longer than anticapated because maybe they are struggling to find OWC..... now just a bit of speculation on my behalf... if it takes longer for the rns then they are drilling further or have had to drill further, which is good for share holders... $L''

nigelpm

1st Oct '10

ps....incidentally, I also think that Isaac made a decent case for HOIL. Indeed few seem to be looking.

Agreed. some of my Dana money has been going here and Circle Oil.

emptyend

1st Oct '10

The one serious difference between TGD and Cladhan is that whilst both are discoveries, Cladhan has flowed 15000 bopd equivalent

...err...no it hasn't!

The RNS from Encore is here

The well, 210/29a-4Z flowed at a stable rate of circa 5,903 bopd......The flow rate was restricted by the capacity of surface facilities and due to the small diameter of the testing tools and the 3.5 inch tubing used while testing. The Operator, Sterling Resources, has indicated that with larger 4.5 inch completion tubing, they estimate that the well is capable of producing over 15,000 bopd.

There is no need to exaggerate what is certainly a very strong test result. The fact that Sterling THINK it could/should flow at 15,000 bopd is pretty irrelevant really....after all, when SOCO tested an estimated 120 metres of net pay at TGD-1X two years ago they probably also expected the well to flow at about 15,000bopd - but the sad reality is that operational cockups (mostly outside their control) prevented any measurable flow at all.

If the price crashes because they find an OWC at the third time of asking, I'll go and buy some more because the potential in, the rest of the portfolio really is something special and I'll probably sell some SIA to fund the purchase.

Yes you probably will....proving my point about people selling SIA in order to fund their purchases of "the hot stock du jour".

repobear

1st Oct '10

ee'

Well selling off a few SIA, from what was an heavily overweight position, in a share where after nearly 40 months there are still operational difficulties and delays in getting the TGD well to flow, to fund SLG which flowed Cladhan at those rates, actual or as estimated by management, looks a pretty rational decision by me. Any doubters should read what the two management's said about the two results in the last month.

The market seems to bear that out too with a rise of 40% or so since my first buys a month ago.The corresponding performance of Soco's share price also reflects the reaction to the problems and the fears that the crown jewel in the portfolio may be lost if they continue.

I'll not bother overlaying the two graphs.

ee. It was 'mon action du jour' It'll probably get an upgrade next week;-) Here's hoping those TGD fears are totally unfounded and Encore explodes beyond reality on Cladhan news and Soco reacts slowly to allow a quick switch to heavily overweight SIA again.

repobear

peterg

1st Oct '10

Hi Repo,

I'm glad you didn't let scotslass's post influence your investment decisions, but if that's the case why do you keep repeating what she said?

''Subject to rns, i would look at it in a positive reflection.... after all say' if they drilled the 8.5" section to td on sunday, and lets just say they found no OWC but a mass of oil bearing sands .. maybe in the region of 900ft +/- which is a LOT more than what they initally thought !!! so they would have to run another liner, dur to pressure's approaching there kick tollerance. Now if they are drilling a 6.6" hole ( which i believe is quite rare ) to try and find the edge of this beast.. so if it was taking longer than anticapated because maybe they are struggling to find OWC..... now just a bit of speculation on my behalf... if it takes longer for the rns then they are drilling further or have had to drill further, which is good for share holders... $L''

OK, I've just done it again! But there's nothing in there that says anything other than "the wells taking a while, so it could be good news and if it is this is the sort of thing that may be going on". What could clearly also be going on is that they are having technical problems (hard to believe I know but these things happen when you drill wells :-) . If you read through the posts on the TMF Soco board at the time COD-1X was being drilled you can see all sorts of very rational discussions about what was happening and how deep an oil column they must have found, before the truth came out.

I think SLG holds up as an investment on its own merits. I'm holding in a significant way, but throwing in misleading misquotes about flow rates and endlessly repeating a very one sided interpretation of what may be happening doesn't really help anyone apart from the pump and dump merchants.

Peter

emptyend

1st Oct '10

throwing in misleading misquotes about flow rates and endlessly repeating a very one sided interpretation of what may be happening doesn't really help anyone apart from the pump and dump merchants.

Precisely! ......And this is an extremely well-made point too:

If you read through the posts on the TMF Soco board at the time COD-1X was being drilled you can see all sorts of very rational discussions about what was happening and how deep an oil column they must have found, before the truth came out.

Having now had the benefit of seeing several wells "from both sides" I would draw the following conclusions and would expect them to have general application:

NOBODY knows for certain what test results will show until a test is actually performed. This applies even to those who see the daily well data.
Hofstadter's Law applies to 95% of drilling and testing operations (though of course lacks the empirical grounding of the SW10 variant ;-))
A variant of Parkinson's Law also applies to the bulletin board commentary on well operations, in that there is a continual stream of speculation filling the vacuum of newsflow - but it is almost entirely uninformed (and in excess of 90% inaccurate).
Sod's Law also cannot be ignored, even in the best-run operations.

AFAICS this wholly vindicates SW10's stance on drilling speculation - which AFAICT is not to bother speculating but merely to wait for the results.

.......which, I would suggest, is sound advice for those with other things to do! ;-)

cheers

SW10Chap

1st Oct '10

Repo,

What I would say if there is anything like that amount of oil in place those guys must be having one hell of a job controlling the situation

Why? The amount of oil (or water!) doesn't give rise to well-control problems, pressure does.

I can't see the quote from the LSE link you gave, so working with what you quoted:

say, if they drilled the 8.5" section to td on sunday, and lets just say they found no OWC but a mass of oil bearing sands

Guess, and guess

maybe in the region of 900ft +/- which is a LOT more than what they initally thought

Guess

they would have to run another liner

Guess. Though they certainly wouldn't run a liner. Casing, well maybe - but why?

dur to pressure's approaching there kick tollerance.

Guess. Because we've guessed they got to TD and we've guessed that there's been no announcement, we've guessed that they must be drilling on and gone on to guess that they must have had to put another casing string in the hole because we've guessed that there must uncontrollable pressures to deal with.

What pressures? Why can they not weight the mud up? And even if there is some overpressuring it doesn't indicate hydrocarbons. Hang it all, if I found 900ft of oil sands and the well was getting a bit playful I might just stop drilling and log the thing.

Because once you've cased-off the well you're going to get bagger-all data from it, which isn't a good idea; especially if these sands are exciting as people seem to think.

What I see are guesses built on assumptions and other guesses. And not that convincing - unless you believe that the poster has some kind of a direct line to what's happening on the rig. That seems unlikely to me based on some of the terminology being used.

To be clear, I'm not against guessing - I do a fair bit of it myself - I just prefer to see guesses with a little more foundation before committing to them.

FWIW I'm an EO. holder, so do have an interest - although having withdrawn my original 'stake' I'm feeling fairly relaxed about what happens from here...

SW10

repobear

1st Oct '10

Peter,

I was half hoping that SW10 would cast his eye over what she says and comment on whether it stacks up or not. He was the one who quoted her and actually just picking out that section of the quote was also a little misleading, I thought.

The quote about flow rates wasn't misleading. I use the word 'equivalent'. If a bigger pipe had been used it would have flowed at that rate in management's estimations. Now those people have a reputation in Canada of telling it as it is. So does AB at Encore. That's why I referred people to what was said about the results to give it some sort of context.

When those sort of people, with highly regarded technical teams start getting excited I tend to take notice. If other people choose to downplay their achievements it's their problem.

I'm out of here till there's news on Cladhan.

repobear

emptyend

1st Oct '10

The quote about flow rates wasn't misleading. I use the word 'equivalent'. If a bigger pipe had been used it would have flowed at that rate in management's estimations.

Complete nonsense. Several people have already pointed out that it was misleading -and indeed was factually incorrect.

As you know, a flow of "15,000 bopd equivalent" usually indicates an actual measured flow of 15,000 bopd equivalent (composed of oil and gas).

As has been said, there should be no need to exaggerate what has plainly been said about the test results - and I am mystified why you seem to feel the need to repeatedly embellish them (as they are strong enough already!).

I'm off out now - enough of this....

SW10Chap

1st Oct '10

SW10's stance on drilling speculation - which AFAICT is not to bother speculating but merely to wait for the results.

Couldn't have put it better myself. Shall we all we do just that?

:-)

SW10

flyingbull

1st Nov '10

In the >20% gain competition, a "Jimarillo" 61.2% winning gain with XEL. Not bad at all!!!
As for the >20% Down competition, DES descended by 37.1%. Both Markc2010 and Johnnylite were winners.
Congratulations to the winners.

Thanks ryanandbethan for gathering the entries.

The two competition results are shown below:

>20% Up Competition Results:

-5.7% Average

61.2%	JIMARILLO	XEL	Fool
48.3%	CHRISTIAN12	LOGP	Fool
24.0%	LUCKYJONAH	CAZA	Fool
24.0%	TGG	CAZA	Fool
22.3%	EASTHEATH	AST	Fool
22.3%	MARKC2010	AST	Fool
14.7%	ISAAC	HOIL	Stockopedia
7.3%	JPGH	GKP	Fool
3.2%	ROBS12	COV	Stockopedia
3.2%	CHRISWALDEN	COV	Fool
2.3%	PETROLEUM1	PCI	Fool
-1.4%	DRAGONFAN	EO.	Fool
-1.4%	OILSCHMOIL	EO.	Fool
-1.6%	WSHAK	SLG	Fool
-1.6%	ZAKMUNDO	SLG	Fool
-1.6%	BUFFIN100	SLG	Fool
-4.9%	DBFROMGB	AEX	Stockopedia
-4.9%	SAFETYFIRST	AEX	Stockopedia
-11.2%	EWM55	SEY	Fool
-11.5%	RYANANDBETHAN	FPM	Stockopedia
-11.5%	HOPINGFORBULLS	FPM	Fool
-11.5%	HAOMA	FPM	Fool
-14.8%	LUMINOSO	SEA	Fool
-15.3%	PRIVATEPILES	SQZ	Fool
-20.1%	STOCK SLEUTH	VPP	Stockopedia
-20.1%	FLYINGBULL	VPP	Fool
-26.0%	FATPROPHET	PELE	Fool
-26.1%	GARY1966	MATD	Fool
-27.7%	ABANGUS	SIA	Stockopedia
-27.7%	FUISEOG	SIA	Stockopedia
-27.7%	TRANSCENDLIMITS	SIA	Fool
-27.7%	KYU66	SIA	Fool
-27.7%	JOHNNYLITE	SIA	Fool
-27.7%	HYWEL	SIA	Fool
-27.7%	KINGMCKONG	SIA	Fool
-27.7%	SCOTTIEDOG	SIA	Fool
-37.1%	PROSELENES	DES	Fool

>20% Down Competition Results:

-7.4% Average

-37.1%	MARKC2010	DES	Fool
-37.1%	JOHNNYLITE	DES	Fool
-30.5%	SAFETYFIRST	RKH	Stockopedia
-27.9%	LUMINOSO	HAWK	Fool
-26.1%	FATPROPHET	MATD	Fool
-26.1%	TGG	MATD	Fool
-26.1%	FLYINGBULL	MATD	Fool
-26.0%	STOCKSLEUTH	PELE	Stockopedia
-25.1%	WSHAK	FRR	Fool
-25.1%	KYU66	FRR	Fool
-15.3%	FUISEOG	SQZ	Stockopedia
-14.9%	ROBS12	RPT	Stockopedia
-14.9%	PRIVATEPILES	RPT	Fool
-14.9%	KINGMCKONG	RPT	Fool
-14.9%	SCOTTIEDOG	RPT	Fool
-11.5%	LUCKYJONAH	FPM	Fool
-7.1%	JIMARILLO	WBN	Fool
-4.9%	EWM55	AEX	Fool
-1.6%	ISAAC	SLG	Stockopedia
-1.6%	OILSCHMOIL	SLG	Fool
-1.4%	EASTHEATH	EO.	Fool
-1.4%	TRANSCENDLIMITS	EO.	Fool
-1.4%	ZAKMUNDO	EO.	Fool
-1.4%	CHRISTIAN12	EO.	Fool
-1.4%	HYWEL	EO.	Fool
-1.4%	PROSELENES	EO.	Fool
61.2%	JPGH	XEL	Fool
61.2%	PETROLEUM1	XEL	Fool
61.2%	HAOMA	XEL	Fool

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October Odyssey for >20%.............

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Flyingbull

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