Do Stockopedia readers have a personal view on the outlook for the UK economy at the moment? I appreciate it's all educated guesswork but it's obviously important for considering what to do with one's portfolio.
For me there are some contradictory signals. E.g. Safestyle UK (LON:SFE) recent update made me nervous that we're on the verge of a recession if a big ticket item like double-glazing has seen a big slump (I consider Safestyle UK (LON:SFE) a well-run company so don't consider it a company specific problem). Recent figures also suggested the construction industry has slumped in August albeit only compared with activity over the last 12 months. On the other hand yesterday Next (LON:NXT) seemed to be a bit more relaxed about the near-term outlook for its business. Has anyone seen any other interesting comments from recent RNS'? The rising £ may also complicate matters.
I'm currently leaning towards a possible near-term recession albeit nowhere near as bad as the last one. I'm therefore tending to stay away from anything too cyclical and have been moving more and more of my positions into cash.
I don't think there be a world recession, theres not enough reasons for a recession. for something major to happen there needs to be a trigger point like the 2007/8 financial crisis. I don't think theres something as major as that around the corner. theres other macro events like the korea situation, GBP value, etc.
housing will still be ok as long as the interest rates don't jump overly high, when interest rates shoot up to around 4% that's when I believe the bubble will pop for the uk housing market.
the stock market could change direction from growth to a value play, leading to some sort of correction. when everything gets highly priced this is where value comes into play, so the market could switch direction which is more of what im anticipating.
a correction to be honest is needed because at some point people will get scared of the markets melting, and a correction will help restore confidence. lets face it no one at the moment is looking to pump to much money in on the fear of a crash, so a correction is needed and most probably be welcome.
im 40% invested, and 60% cash and looking at stocks which have had a drop and have value in them for now