Fundamentals of Sibir remain very strong but it's been hugely punished along with the rest of the Russian market.
Let's start with the Russian market situation first. What we are going to see in the coming months is the state having to bail out oligarchs who've been forced to make margin calls due to the massive Russian market declines. However, the whole market-crash-post-Georgia, exacerbated by the international crisis and the flight from emerging markets has done huge credibility damage to the Putin / Medvedev regime. Remember this is a quasi-oligarchy that derives its sole legitimacy from the material gains to the Russian population and perceived re-strengthening of Russia. Yet now these material gains are seriously threatened and worst, those who have benefitted most (the elite) have been seriously hurt. So I don't think that we're going to see a return to more nationalisation and state interference over the coming years - quite the opposite, I think that the regime is going to have to make greater efforts to appease investors and encourgage the perception that they don't mess around with companies.
As to Sibir, the company owns some fantastic assets (including JV in the Moscow Refinery and some impressively large oil fields). In July the FT was raving about Sibir's dominance on AIM and its moves to enter the FTSE, profit was trebbling and output up by 80%. The dispute with Gazprom (more or less standard fare in Russian oil) is moving to a mutually successful close etc. But then came the market crash and worse, two of Sibir's major shareholders were forced to sell Sibir shares they had pledged as collateral for other invesments (like so many other oligarchs). And on top of that the oil price fell back.
Nonetheless, it now looks increasinly certain that oil is going to hold at the 70 / 80 mark, which leaves plenty margin for those like Sibir able to pump it from the ground significantly cheaper. I think that at current valuations (the stock down almost 70% from its July peak) this one looks very worthy of a play if you can stomach the Russian market risk....
