LON:OXB | Oxford BioMedica - Can It Convert To Highflyer?

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4th Jul '17 by underscored

12 comments 7663 reads

Some strong news flow coming out of this UK biotech - driving a doubling in share price in < 1 week!

They are the sole contract manufacturer for a potential Novartis blockbuster currently under-review by the FDA http://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/oxford-biomedica-LON:OXB/news/rns/170614oxb1002i.htm/?title=findings-from-phase-ii-juliet-study

And they have now refinanced on more favourable terms.

http://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/oxford-biomedica-LON:OXB/news/rns/170630oxb7350j.htm/?title=refinancing-of-debt-facility

Disclosure, I am long.

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About the Author

Underscored

Premium Member

12 comments

underscored

6th Jul '17

Announcement of the financials of the Novartis supply agreement. Fully priced into the past weeks move already?

"Oxford BioMedica could potentially receive in excess of $100 million from Novartis over the next three years. This amount includes a $10 million upfront payment, various performance incentives and bioprocessing and development services. The supply agreement is for three years, extendable to five years subject to the agreement of both parties.
In addition to this, and as previously announced in October 2014, Oxford BioMedica will also receive undisclosed royalties on potential future sales of Novartis's CAR-T products."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/oxford-biomedica-plc--oxb-/rns/major-commercial-and-clinical-supply-agreement/201707060700042513K/

underscored

10th Jul '17

Well after a couple of days consolidating at extraordinary volumes, Oxford BioMedica (LON:OXB) has climbed 10% today!

This is all very exciting, FDA advisory board will meet to make a recommendation on the 12th this month, with a licencing decision in September.

Not bad for patients either ;) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1cIm1JDhRw

underscored

12th Jul '17

Well it has been a volatile few days on no news, but the FDA advisory oncology advisory committee met today as mentioned on Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-novartis-cancer-idUSKBN19X2OZ.

Selected quote "“I think this is most exciting thing I’ve seen in my lifetime,” said Dr. Tim Cripe, an oncologist with Nationwide Children’s Hospital on Columbus, Ohio and an expert who weighed in on CTL019 at Wednesday’s FDA panel."

Whilst I understand the revenue upside for Oxford BioMedica (LON:OXB) to be limited, low single digit royalties I think - it will be interesting to see what the pipeline is now worth as this technology gains validation.

As ever DYOR - this is certainly not a StockRank farming play !

Edit: I should add that this is not a regulatory approval, this is an expert advisory panel to help the FDA come to a final decision. FDA decision is scheduled by Oct 3rd.

underscored

14th Jul '17

Well at this stage the institutional backing required to hold the price at these price levels is not there.

I have reduced down to a small holding, but am optimistic over a longer time horizon, and the risk of further dilution has receded for now.

Monty1

25th Jul '17

Should get full approval by September with interim in mid August. I've been in and out of this stock for nearly twenty years! It's going to be an exciting run up to year end. Next year should be a maiden profit. I am currently holding long

underscored

25th Jul '17

It shows how crazy early our biotech companies have to come to market :( Crazy, no wonder we can't capitalise on our research!

underscored

30th Aug '17

Approval granted. Let's see http://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/oxford-biomedica-LON:OXB/news/rns/170830oxb3475p.htm/?title=ctl019-receives-fda-approval

CAR-T looks like an interesting space for the near term future.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kite-pharma-m-a-gilead-sciences-idUSKCN1B810Y

Monty1

30th Aug '17

FDA approval today is great news for oxb. Should be transformational and turns another loss making biotech with promise into a profitable growing company. Great news for patients also!
Approval came after market close so tomorrow and next week will be interesting as this news begins to filter through. Is on BBC news as I type this note.
Possible Likely end point is novartis acquisition

underscored

31st Aug '17

Short term it looks like the price is stuck around 10p, a lot of stale bulls exiting I presume.

Rusty2

31st Aug '17

Strange the shares are down today after the good news last night.

underscored

31st Aug '17

After watching the 13 July 20% bounce turn into a rout, I now suspect that this company has many stale bulls waiting to escape at the first opportunities.

Rusty2

31st Aug '17

I don't know much about this share but you could well be right, I was expecting a rise today instead it's down a bit, think I may wait a while.

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Oxford BioMedica - Can it convert to highflyer?

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Underscored

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