Paul's Weekly SCVR Summary - (w/e 11 Nov 2022)

14th Nov '22 by Paul Scott

9 comments 3795 reads

SCVR Podcast 12 Nov 2022 is here, and on podcast channels.

Here is the transcript, for Stockopedia subscribers only.

My usual weekly summary of the SCVRs.

Just my personal opinions, not advice, please DYOR (do your own research).

Monday 7 Nov

Joules (LON:JOUL) - another business update. Financially distressed special situation. Another profit warning. Running out of headroom on bank facility end of this month, looking for bridging financing. Looking increasingly precarious. I hope they reach a solvent solution. A multimillionaire car dealer has bought a stake in it, so I imagine he might want a solvent solution, or is it just to get a seat at the table for a pre-pack administration?? We don’t know. Too uncertain. I’m nervous about the outcome here. Will look at it afresh if/when it refinances.

Loungers (LON:LGRS) - bar/cafe chain. Mgt highly regarded. Diversifying into roadside cafes, like Little Chef, called “Brightside”. 3 sites to open in the S.West in early 2023. Significant diversification. Quite an interesting development.

Appreciate (LON:APP) - Graham reported on takeover bid by Paypoint. Decent 70% premium. Mix of cash/shares. Paypoint is a good value business, mature, so looking to diversify. Good deal for APP shareholders.

DWF (LON:DWF) - Graham covered an acquisition.

National World - announced a big investment in The News Movement

Frasers - massive share buyback to be launched. [Correction: I got the figure wrong here, sorry about that. The actual figure is 10m shares, costing no more than £70m. Nowhere near my mistaken £3bn figure. Profuse apologies, I should have checked before saying a ridiculously wrong figure).

Tuesday 8 Nov

Housebuilders -most interesting sector, I think valuations have overshot on the downside, and are below NTAV. i don’t think a major housing market crash is likely, because long-term interest rates have already started falling, and there’s a long-term structural lack of housing. Plus sector balance sheets are now so strong, with net cash, as opposed to net debt in previous recessions. Stock & WIP are in at cost. I looked at Persimmon (LON:PSN) - yes it’s a mid-cap, not small cap, but we’ll look at anything that helps us understand what is going on in the economy, especially important right now. PSN looks interesting but I’m concerned at the scale of increase in its cladding remediation provision (£75m to c.£350m, could it be even…

Unlock with Email

Unlock with Google

Already have an account?
Login here

stanley1

14th Nov '22

Smiths News (LON:SNWS) Hi Paul, where can you see Smiths News paying 11% divi. The two payments only seem to add up to 6% to me

iain1234

Love the podcast Paul, thanks. This looks like a lot of work typing it up though and I’m not sure it’s worth it when we already have access to the daily reports. Macro thoughts are interesting though. Thanks again.

Glen Keedy

Just to say that I really appreciate the quality content you provide on a weekly basis. The podcasts have been a great addition and I enjoy listening to them while pottering around at the weekend. Highlights so far have been macro stuff, the Paul Scott phonetic alphabet (soon to adopted by the armed forces), the arrival of the curry and family phone call. Its a chatty and entertaining 45 minutes or so, of what can be a dry subject.

Only one way to sign off

BYEEEEEEEEE!

Paul Scott

Hi stanley1,

I use the forecast divis, which generate the forward-looking divi yield on the StockReport. This could be because, having repaid most of its bank debt, Smiths News (LON:SNWS) is now more free to pay larger divis.

The StockReport is now showing a forecast divi yield of 9.8%, which will have dropped a bit because the share price has risen strongly in recent days. This is based on forecast divis for FY 8/2022 of 4.13p. That would need double-checking to broker notes.

The interesting thing is that, despite having a super-high yield of nearly 10%, this is more than twice covered by EPS of >10p. That's incredible, and hardly ever seen in my experience.

Regards, Paul.

I can type it up fairly quickly, as I listen back for any errors, so it's not that much extra work, and I cracked open a bottle of pinot grigio whilst working on my laptop outside this weekend, enjoying the sun, so it's fine.

I think it's useful for people who are really short of time - instead of ploughing through 5 reports, they can just skim the summary. Then if anything of interest crops up, they can refer back to that individual report.

Also, I think it's a good idea to have a written summary of macro events/news too, to refer back to once memories have faded.

LOL thanks Glen! As you correctly say, the subject matter can be a bit dry, so I try to make my podcasts more like a chat over a coffee, and leave in anything a bit daft, without getting too silly! Although my family & I have been plotting some quirky ideas for Xmas week's podcast!! :-)

drvodkaquickstep

4.15p for the FY divided by 41.5p current bid = 10% plus I have seen Paul’s reply re: their ability to pay >£10m in divis going forward once they refinance again although the current facility was only put in place in December last year with mgt noting on the call last week that there are no current plans to renew that facility at present.

The Jayman

20th Nov '22

Great to listen to the weekly reports - please keep these going as they’re a really helpful reflection on the week past and what trends seem to have emerged. Much appreciated part of my news cycle.

TStubbs

27th Jan '23

This is great if you've been away particularly when you flag that there has been good reader comments, thanks

Paul's weekly SCVR summary - (w/e 11 Nov 2022)

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

About the Author

Paul Scott

9 comments

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...