Plus 500 Results for Q3 2018 now a winning share in the Naps portfolio for 2019

Wednesday, Nov 25 2015 by

I first spotted this stock last October and purchased some shares in the company. It fits the William O'Neil's screen and I noticed he bought in Feb 2014. It is an AIM stock and doing really well. I have increased my holdings 4 times since then. This must be the best stock I have bought so far. First quarter figures are out today with excellent results, pushing the shares still higher.
The customer base and the sales figures still keep increasing.

As I am not a particularly good writer perhaps someone else would care to comment. I would welcome Paul Scott's view.
Cheers Lightningtiger

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Plus500 Ltd is an Israel-based company that develops and operates an online trading platform for individual customers to trade contracts for difference (CFDs). Its online trading platform allows its customers to trade CFDs on over more than 2,200 different underlying global financial instruments comprising equities, indices, commodities, options, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), crypto currencies and foreign exchange. The Company enables individual customers to trade CFDs in more than 50 countries. The trading platform is accessible from various operating systems, such as Windows, iOS, Android, and Surface, as well as Web browsers. more »

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229 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

lightningtiger 24th Aug '18 210 of 229

I think short traders have been hammering the price down. A low today around 11 AM about 1420p and then rising to about 1500p now about 1:00 pm
. The valuation from VectorVest is 3078p , so it is now massively undervalued and the Fib retracement is showing 2500p, that's up about £10.00 a share!

Stockopedia StockRank 99 with 9 screens.

Sooner or later the share price has to bounce back in my opinion, look at the stats :

From Stockopedia data we have :

Broker trend  strong buy.

Sales growth 147.1%.

Cash $$511.9M

Return of capital 150.7%

Operating margin 68.5%

Health trend 8

Dividend yield 12%

There is nothing negative about these figures, the only way is up!

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lightningtiger 26th Oct '18 211 of 229

Update from Q3 report :
Trading for 2018 , expected to be ahead of expectations.
Revenues for 9 mths ended 30th Sept 2018 up 86% to $565.6M (that is about $2M / day coming in!)
Active customers for 9 mths of 2018 increased 74%
CFO Elad Evin-Chan is citing  Japan as another trading licence to trade after the European clampdown.

Dividend payment on 22/11/18 of $1.3786

Share price now  1371p

V/Vest valuation  2683p

Stock Rank99

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lightningtiger 20th Nov '18 212 of 229

Results out today from Reuters stating Q4 figures will be "above market expectations".Looking into 2019 the outlook is also positive. That has pushed the share price up 11.3% to 1430p at the time of writing.
.It also brings the 50 day MA back on track and only 2days for the dividend payment to be paid out.
It's about time the share price starts reversing.
The Naps portfolio also benefits in this latest statement.

StockRank 98 with 8 screens

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lightningtiger 28th Dec '18 213 of 229

Having just received a payment yesterday for the 25% tax refund from Israel via ESOP, the payment is way short of the 25% refund that it should be. I have e-mailed ESOP today asking for some reason why it is incorrect or where massive charges or fees have been taken, and also contacted Hargreaves , who are looking into it.
Has anybody else had a similar encounter with ESOP?
The "above market expectations" has been repeated again,which is another positive note.Meanwhile there is nothing new yet regarding Japan becoming another country to trade with, or indeed somewhere else. We will have to wait and see.
With only one more trading day to go for this year, it would appear that Plus 500 has an excellent chance of winning the top spot in the NAPS portfolio.Time will tell.

Share price now 1393p, Stock Rank 99 with 8 screens @ 4:37pm

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lightningtiger 1st Feb 214 of 229

Update on the tax refund from ESOP and Hargreaves is that the UK can only claim 15% back & that is why it did not pay out as much.
JP Morgan has just bought another lot of shares this week. Today, 2days after that the share price has moved up above 4% pushing the share price above the £16 mark for a while, a somewhat delayed reaction for some reason.
Can/t see why in any news today. A lot of people have been shorting PLUS 500 recently, so possibly a few have changed their minds, or possibly another country has bought a lot of shares up.

StockRank 99 with 8 screens.

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lightningtiger 12th Feb 215 of 229

Valuation seems to be key today, massive 10.3M sell off. Share price down 30.8% to finish at 1133p, but the valuation from Vectorvest shows a much different picture. Yesterday it was 2725p and today just 2577p, which is only 5.4% lower.
The stop price has been breached at 1305p.
However this could be panic selling. I fail to see with an average trading of 3M trades a month can make such havoc in a day .from the phrase "marginly lower than market expectations."
The Fib Retracement is showing around 2000p, which is positive, and still paying out a dividend too.

In spite of the huge drop today  Plus 500 is still showing 8 screens, all holding their nerve.

At the end of business today there has been heavy buying but the share price has not budged.

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timarr 13th Feb 216 of 229

In reply to post #446653

However this could be panic selling. I fail to see with an average trading of 3M trades a month can make such havoc in a day .from the phrase "marginly lower than market expectations."

The annual report states:

This, combined with the anticipated lower revenue, is likely to result in 2019 profit being materially lower than current market expectations

That would normally constitute a major miss in expectations. Typically shares drop 25%+ on such a warning.

No idea where the "marginly" comment above comes from.


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Ramridge 13th Feb 217 of 229

lightingtiger - today's Stocko figures show 2019 forecasts revenues 536m (-22% over 2018) and eps 2.33p (-27% over 2018) . These are the same forecasts as those shown before yesterday's RNS.

So if the company is saying 2019 is going to be materially below current market expectations, that says to me that new 2019 forecasts are at least 10% - 20% below these. That makes eps -37% to -47% below 2018.

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herbie47 13th Feb 218 of 229

In reply to post #446653

Odey sold over 1% last Friday. Then profit warning on Monday. Even companies with slight misses are getting hammered these days, I think Plus500 (LON:PLUS) has got off fairly lightly considering. Stockopedia figures will not be updated for some time.

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herbie47 13th Feb 219 of 229

I have noticed the directors sales from September last year onwards, over £176,000,000. Wow.

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lightningtiger 13th Feb 220 of 229

Stockrank is still showing 99 with now 10 screens. .Odey has just bought another 13M shares, which shows there is still an interest in buying in spite of a falling knife red light and huge selling of the directors last year.
Because of the fall of the share price, the forward dividend has increased to 13.3% yield.
The forecast show that 2019 could be below 2018 figures, but if a few more countries get trading with licences, this could all change things with more customers and more trades.

That is the aim of the company looking forward for this year,so only time will tell.

Currently Plus 500 is well under valued compared with last week. So is it a bargain or a further disaster waiting to happen?

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lightningtiger 14th Feb 221 of 229

Directors have just bought a trench of 50,000 shares. Stockrank now 94. Share price 1086p. with 9 screens.

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herbie47 14th Feb 222 of 229

In reply to post #447648

So they sold over 11,000,000 and just bought back 50,000, hardly convincing sign of confidence.

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lightningtiger 15th Feb 223 of 229

I agree Herbie.
Today Odey however, has increased it;s stake in he company and now holds 25% of Plus 500 shares, which is huge holding for them now.

More bad press from The Times today, which has had an impact on the share price plummeting again. The forward dividend yield now has increased to 14.4%.

Stockrank 94 with 9 screens and counting.

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Snoo 15th Feb 224 of 229

Not really sure the Stockrank is relevant anymore - it is a backward looking metric. It isn't going to change over night.

For example the day, or week after CAKE came out with the bad stuff it still would have been showing SR87 and all the screens.

Until there are some further details it seems unclear what they are up to with regard to hedging going forward.

Sure Odey might give confidence, but that isn't really a sign in itself, seem to remember Woodford chasing some stinkers.

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herbie47 15th Feb 225 of 229

In reply to post #448643

I don't really follow Odey, he seems to have got a lot wrong recently. I just checked and he is in the lowest quartile of fund managers, over the last 5 years. It is a huge gamble, but it is not his money.

Yes Stockopedia will take some time to adjust.

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AimInvestor85 15th Feb 226 of 229

I find the whole NAPS idea very interesting. I don’t personally use it but I can see the appeal. We are all geniuses in hindsight, but the fact that there was such a short interest against this stock makes you think ‘if’ this could have been foretold. Maybe another factor to add in to the NAPS criteria is to avoid stocks with a short interest over a certain %? I have no idea what that % should be, but Plus500 were the most shorted company on the FTSE for a while so there’s some “smart money” betting that something didn’t add up. A short interest overlay could be a nice addition to the NAPS, perhaps, to prevent against the “too good to be true” companies?

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lightningtiger 20th Feb 227 of 229

Stockrank now showing 89.and still showing 10 screens. Why ate the 10 screens showing still holding? Odey topping up with yet more shares today, whilst the directors have increased their 3rd trench of 50k's worth of shares before it goes XD tomorrow 21/2/18.
Valuation from Vectorvest is showing the highest percentage difference from the share price inn as long as I can remember at 2224p yesterday, which makes it massively undervalued at this point in time. Wish I could use Stoco for a valuation but there are too many variables.
Dividend yield is now showing at 17.6% from Stocopedia. If that is the case and this latest dividend is just under 50p (5 to 5.5%), then it would appear that there is another 17.6% -5.5% = 12.1% yet to come!
I recon it is time for a bounce back.

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lightningtiger 21st Feb 228 of 229

A surprising result today considering that Plus 500 is XD today and usually the share price drops.The reverse happens finishing up 7.4% at 823.5p when the general market was down. Morgan Stanley bought some more shares today. Still massively undervalued. Hopefully the trend is at last beginning to reverse direction.
Stockrank still remains at 89 with 10 screens remaining in tact.
From dividend the actual dividend payment was 6.17% @ a share price of 767p . That  payment is $0.6191, about 48p. This may be varied according to the exchange rate in the £/$ come July.

I feel sure there will be more licences world wide opening a pathway for more customers. The regulation bodies are in place and being adhered to, and having their business move forward. Time will tell how this all pans out?

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UK_Investor_8888 22nd Feb 229 of 229

Don't forget the Witholding Tax of 30% (15% reclaimable for filling out millions of forms).

USD 5000 for me!

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