NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
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NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
Chinese tub thumping or not these kind of reports don't help thoughts of adding to ones position at such apparently bargain basement levels (Around 300p as I write)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Walker/2011/10/03/Walkers-World-War-in-South-China-Sea/UPI-23491317637140/?spt=hs&or=an
An ugly momentum is building in the South China Sea, where an official Chinese newspaper called last week for war against Vietnam and the Philippines to uphold China's assertion of sovereignty over the mineral-rich seabed, estimated to hold 7 billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
The lead article in the Chinese Communist Party newspaper Global Times
Tuesday carried the headline "The time to use force has arrived in the South China Sea; Let's wage wars on the Philippines and Vietnam to prevent more wars."
There were three immediate triggers for the extraordinary reaction from Beijing.
The first was the successful move by the Philippines to arrange talks within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, excluding China, on cooperating and "clarifying consensual and disputed claims in the South China Sea."
The second trigger was India's rejection of Chinese objections to its own new agreements to explore for oil in Vietnamese waters, in partnership with Vietnam. Global Times had criticized the Indian approach, saying in an editorial that Vietnam's efforts to bring in foreign companies to explore for oil amount to a "serious political provocation."
India hasn't been intimidated.
"We will proceed with drilling at our block (in the South China Sea) on a schedule established according to our technical convenience," India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. announced last month, adding that India's foreign ministry had told ONGC the area where the oil firm wished to explore was "very much inside Vietnam's territory."
The third trigger was last week's agreement of Japan and ASEAN, at a meeting of defense officials in Tokyo, to intensify cooperation and consultation on the South China Sea. Japanese Vice Minister of Defense Kimito Nakae said the relationship between Tokyo and ASEAN has "matured from dialogues to one where Japan plays a more specific cooperative role" on a range of regional security issues."
Whilst it's right to be cautious, it's also worth bearing in mind that China has invited the Vietnamese to a high level meeting next week...
General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee Nguyen Phu Trong will pay an official visit to the People's Republic of China from October 11-15, at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao, who is also Chinese President.
The visit will play a significant role in improving bilateral relations and also be regarded as a positive step for both sides to solve disputes through negotiations.
http://english.cri.cn/6909/2011/10/05/2021s661381.htm
"An ugly momentum is building in the South China Sea, where an official Chinese newspaper called last week for war against Vietnam and the Philippines to uphold China's assertion of sovereignty over the mineral-rich seabed, estimated to hold 7 billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas."
while it would obviously be bad for all in the region if there was some sort of confrontation, is it not right to say that none of SOCO's assets are in the disputed south china sea area ?
In which case the most likely out come would be an increase in tension, a slow down in developments in the contested area, and a rise in the oil price, especially in the region, if anything a small gain for soco operationally though obviously negative for any sale (unless it's to the chinese?)
K
is it not right to say that none of SOCO's assets are in the disputed south china sea area ?
It is quite a while since I last looked, but I thought that SOCO's assets were a long way (perhaps a hundred miles) from the furthest extent of China's most extreme claim, i.e. the starting point for their negotiating position. In other words the assets are so far within undisputed Vietnamese waters that this isn't an issue, except for the increased tension between China and Vietnam.
ET
For reference, the Global Times, the paper which carried that article, can be relied upon to take a somewhat militarist stance on anything, and any given front page is likely to have an aircraft carrier or a tank on it. The GT calling for more war is a bit like the Daily Mail calling for less immigration - it's just what they do.
There is a map in this BBC article of China's claimed waters:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13723443
You can see that the claimed waters westernmost extent is almost level with the eastern tip of Vietnam. SOCO's blocks are much closer to the coastline near Ho Chi Minh in southern Vietnam. You can also see how ridiculous China's claim is, but it appears to be no closer than around 200 miles from shore near Ho Chi Minh. TGT / TGD is around 40 miles from the shore and CNV around 50 miles.
ET
No I don't seem to think management sit on their backsides and do nothing and "suddenly burst into activity"
The figures you quote for BOOKED RESERVES indicate nothing at all about the value of the management activity which took place in the relevant periods. Nothing. Nada. Diddly squat.
Tell me RG what is a reasonable period of time to wait before we see reserves added for an EXPLORATION COMPANY ?
In 2007 2P reserves were 160.9 m/bbls & 18.4m/bbls of those were from Thailand strip that out and you get 142.5m/bbl.
Slide 19
2010, booked reserves are 132.6 m/bbl
A decline from those booked in 2007. So we have spent MILLIONS in CAPEX but 4 years on we still don't have new reserves added to the books. Some experts think we will get 160mn booked at somepoint, i.e. over 20% increase.
Surely a material amount & if that really was the case with all these wells drilled on TGT it should be apparent & the management would release such material news to the stock market surely?
In 2006 Annual results Soco stated the following :
Key Highlights
• 20% increase in proven and probable reserves (greater than 40%
increase in Vietnam and 30% in Yemen);
• 34% increase in revenue to $76.5 million (2005 $57.2 million);
• Increase of 43% in pre-tax profits to $48.2 million (2005
$33.7million);
• 70% exploration and appraisal drilling success rate during the year;
• 19% increase in production;
• Pilot development plan approved on Block 9-2 in Vietnam with first oil
expected in 2008;
• Extensive pre-drill activity across the West Africa portfolio;
• Convertible bonds issue netted the Group $243 million;
• Acquisition of additional 2% working interest in Block 16-1 Vietnam;
• Accelerated development in Thailand associated with farm-out.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200703150701239951S
It was also a year which the management delivered a 700% return to shareholders since 2001.
In 2006 Story took home £810k and Cagle took £622k.
Fast forward to 2010 year end...
Share price is down almost 50% of it's peak, no new reserves added & they publish an incredibly dull results statement with hardly anything to get excited about IMO :
Financial Highlights
· After tax profit $101.4m (2009: $51.1m)
· Balance sheet further strengthened by disposal of Thailand assets for gain of $80.1m
· Cash and liquid investments remain robust at $260.4m, operational programme fully funded
Operational Highlights
· TGT development on track to come on stream mid-2011 with Phase I production plateau expected to be 55,000 BOPD
· Significant development drilling progress on TGT, particularly the extension of the previously defined eastwards limits of the field
· Preparations underway for further exploration drilling on our Africa licences
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201103230700134407D
Yet the management & remuneration committee have some how managed to justify taking home Story $1.1m & Cagle $876k in salaries.
Using current exchange rates it translates into Story taking home £711k and Cagle takes home £566k.
Compare that to 2006 Story took home £810k and Cagle took £622k., so when they had an excellent performance in 2006 they took home a decent amount of money, yet the last 4 years have been totally RUBBISH yet they have only had a 10% or so pay cut for Story and Cagle less then 10%.
Does that really make sense? Where is the logic? How is that in anyway correct?
The facts are laid bare........I think it is REALLY obvious why I am INCREDIBLY frustrated with these Remuneration packages as I think they are NOT justified at all.
If I had more power I would'nt pay them more then $300-400k each and when they had a year like 2006 TGT success I would give them a 100% bonus.
But the last 4 years have been dismal and NO WAY do I think they deserve to take home that kind of money, £711k is equivalent to about £30k/month after all taxes in the UK.
Some people earn that after working hard all year round!
I would sack the remuneration committee if I could.
I just honestly think shareholders could recruit people at a far cheaper rate if all we are interested in doing is bringing TGT online and selling it.
So does it really make sense to have Cagle and Story to continue running this company ?
If they had more success I would'nt be as annoyed, but a poor performance over a long period means salaries need to be more throughly scrutinised & significantly cut compared to good years.
The system is broke....It needs to be fixed.
Some experts think we will get 160mn booked at somepoint, i.e. over 20% increase.
Surely a material amount & if that really was the case with all these wells drilled on TGT it should be apparent & the management would release such material news to the stock market surely?
Being "apparent" and having an independent reserves report are two COMPLETELY different things. Reserves won't be booked without an independent report. There is no doubt that an independent report will be forthcoming following the reservoir testing currently underway - and will include a more comprehensive assessment (aka bigger?) of reserves than would have been possible without the production data!
The rest of the post is complete and utter rubbish. There is a difference between operational progress milestones being achieved and achieving the sort of milestones that the stock market will give a company credit for! And I would point out that Pontoil (owner of 23.7%) and BlackRock (owner of 10%) are both perfectly capable of removing/controlling management if they should feel the need to do so - but I am not surprised that they haven't because, AFAICS, operational milestones have continued to be hit and the only significant blot on the landscape in recent years has been the surprising failure of TGD-2X.
ee
ee
Ask yourself this how many people were disappointed with the price achieved by Encore?
I suspect MANY will be disappointed with what Soco achieve once sold, they could have had 20% more in price had they sold 2 months ago when I was ranting and raving from the top of my voice.
The sad reality is the performance has been dismal the last few years and it just feels like the management are trying to further the development of TGT to somehow add back more value in whatever way they can, but unfortunately when Oil prices take a hit and potentially move lower those efforts will be wasted.
Soco has never really been a production company, it has mainly been an EXPLORATION company, the shift in the business model IMO is just pathetic because the efforts just feel like wasted IMO as time may demonstrate.
But I think Was summed it up very nicely as to how I feel....
Given relative value in the sector, 70p cash looks like a terrific exit to me, every bit as good as 140p at the market peak (which was never realistic anyway). You can buy the same amount of shares, probably more, in many alternative companies so I'd be happy as an Encore shareholder
http://boards.fool.co.uk/encore-acquisition-12377548.aspx?sort=whole
If Soco were to be sold for £4.50 I would'nt mind at all at this moment in time as I have every bit of confidence that I would generate a lot more cash by re-investing the proceeds in other plays in the sector then say a £6/share will get me in 2 years time when we won't have the value present in the markets now.
"I suspect MANY will be disappointed with what Soco achieve once sold, they could have had 20% more in price had they sold 2 months ago when I was ranting and raving from the top of my voice."
"If Soco were to be sold for £4.50 I would'nt mind at all at this moment in time as I have every bit of confidence that I would generate a lot more cash by re-investing the proceeds in other plays in the sector then say a £6/share will get me in 2 years time when we won't have the value present in the markets now."
Isaac - you made these two contradictory comments just 3 minutes apart. Even for someone that blows hot and cold, that has to be something of a record.
If you're sure oil is falling then sell oil. If you're sure the FTSE Index is falling then sell that. Surely that would be the answer to your problems and you could be a little more relaxed about your SOCO position. Failing that sell SOCO.....
ET
ET
Short term trading Indicies/Oil is not my style. I prefer to buy cheap shares and just hold for a long time & sell when sentiment is euphoric.
Short term trading Indicies/Oil is not my style. I prefer to buy cheap shares and just hold for a long time & sell when sentiment is euphoric.
Er, so WTF are the endless pages of moans and whinges about? Clearly you approach means you should either have sold some time ago or be happy to hold for some time, till "sentiment is euphoric".
Peter
I've waited 7-8 years. When times were Euphoric I was calling for a sale. $100/bbl brent will still see a reasonable price for Soco....
and the only significant blot on the landscape in recent years has been the surprising failure of TGD-2X.
>> and it should be said, that whoever, at soco managed to get an extension on TGD deserves some serious credit even if some cost recovery benefits have been lost. Some here were skeptical as I recall, some saying that portsmouth would win the fa cup again ? or some such,
If TGD comes off, then that could make getting tgd extension very valuable indeed. of course if it comes to nothing, the management must be idiots ?
K
>> I've waited 7-8 years. When times were Euphoric I was calling for a sale. $100/bbl brent will still see a reasonable price for Soco..
but you cannot control when management are able to do a deal, and at what price, so all you can do is sell when the share price is euphoric ?
to you this is just a trade, and you are happy to move onto the next one, to the management, who have put in 10 + years, and have actually worked in the business, rather than just bought some shares, this is there one shot before retirement. How selfish of them not to sell up so you can re invest and get onto your next trade.
Perhaps you should invest in companies that are not well funded, and the management don't own a near controlling interest. Then, they will be weak and have to take an offer (eo.) or unable to defend themselves against low ball offers, (like dana), and you'd get your cash and be able to move on,
just a thought,
K
to you this is just a trade, and you are happy to move onto the next one
Yep, why are you here for? I am only interested in making money, not being emotionally attached.
this is there one shot before retirement. How selfish of them not to sell up so you can re invest and get onto your next trade.
Have you valued their stakes in the company? I could retire very happily on a fraction of that.
I love this:
Yep, why are you here for? I am only interested in making money, not being emotionally attached.
followed immediately by:
Have you valued their stakes in the company? I could retire very happily on a fraction of that.
Isaac, I know you're not emotionally attached and that's why you don't care whether or not you could retire on a fraction of somebody else's stake. After all, you try your best to not think that it's all about you - but what can you do when management have your number and don't like you at all, but they've gone on all these jollies over the years to Russia, Yemen, Mongolia, Libya, Congo, Vietnam and have the cheek to expect you to pay in line with your share of the company rather than footing the cost themselves? It definitely seems personal to me.
The eventual buyer of the company is bound to be concerned that you've been personally waiting some 7 or 8 years, and I'm sure will be smashing down management's door soon in order to shorten this intolerable, unreasonable wait.
You should also get a personal apology from them and from management that they didn't strike a deal when the oil price was at it's peak a couple of years ago or even two months ago, as you could have reinvested into any number of no-brainer, no risk, high reward investments that are significantly higher now than at those two specific data points which were clearly essential for a long term buy & hold investor.
Why didn't they ask to borrow your particularly excellent and patented Felicity Foresight Crystal Ball to know what was going to happen to oil prices, Lehman Brothers, the US Federal debt, the peripheral eurozone countries including those minor entities, Italy and Spain, the Japanese earthquake, the so-called Arab Spring, the so-called kinetic military operations in Libya - not to mention those pesky little drilling results? Jolly inconsiderate of them if you ask me, or did they just not want to know?
Lord only knows why they'd want to price a deal on the back of long-term oil price forecasts rather than spot - I mean, if they worked a bit harder and put their minds to mapping where all of it is, I'm sure they could extract the 200 million barrels of oil in a couple of months, couldn't they?
All this seismic stuff, FPSO guff and bits & stems whatnot - it's all just jargon to confuse the poor b*ggers in the City and to pull the wool over our eyes - they know where it is, they know how much is there and they won't share it with anyone just so they can keep claiming their overblown salaries. I don't blame you for being upset, if I could think all this up and believed it, I'd be pretty upset too ;o)
Isaac
you said you'll sell your Soco shares (and presumably stop commenting on the co) when the market becomes euphoric
to borrow from Spartacus - I'm standing up here and now and proclaiming - "I'M EUPHORIC"
anyone else prepared to stand up and join me?
T
Not at the moment, still trying to come terms with yet another disappointment at Aminex! :)
But I'll be Euphoric if EO gets a higher counter bid to PMO's measily 70p/sh