Suddenly everyone’s an expert on the stock market. Apparently it was obvious that Royal Mail shares were too cheap at the IPO price of 330p, and now Vince Cable has now called in Lord Myners to review the whole affair.

Some examples:

  • On the news the other day a politician (who shall remain nameless) offering up the nugget of wisdom that the low price had “cost” the taxpayer hundreds of millions of pounds.
  • A newspaper article which said the government had lost out on £750 million (equivalent to 34,000 NHS nurses apparently) by not pricing the IPO at 455p, the price of the shares at the end of their first day of trading.

Okay, so the share price went up by 38% on the first day of trading; that does look suspicious. But is it really evidence of an excessively low price?

I don’t think it is.

330p to 615p in 3 months, it must have been a fix

By mid-January the 330p IPO price was looking even more ridiculously cheap. The shares had climbed to 615p and looked odds-on to double in price within the first six months.

Surely the IPO price must have been too low if it almost doubled in a few short weeks?

If only it were that simple.

615p to 470p in 6 months, perhaps valuing companies isn’t as easy as everyone thinks

That 615p price lasted for just a fleeting moment. Today the shares are trading at about 470p, down almost 24% in six months.

So if 330p is obviously too low and now 615p seems to be obviously too high, what price should the IPO have been?

Valuing Royal Mail using its expected dividend yield

Unlike those who think it’s all so obvious, I don’t think there’s a clear answer, but I’ll take a stab at it anyway using the trusty old dividend yield as a starting point.

The full year dividend is generally expected to be around 21p and so the IPO price of 330p put the dividend yield at 6.4%. For context the FTSE 100 yield was 3.5%.

To price Royal Mail shares in line with the market yield the IPO price would have been 600p.

Clearly that’s a lot higher than 330p. But generally IPOs are launched with a 10% or so discount relative to a reasonable estimate of the expected market price.

This helps to ensure a “smooth getaway” for the IPO and in this case it would have put the IPO price at…

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