LON:AEX | Silly Season Thread - AEX | Djpreston

3rd Aug '10 by djpreston

29 comments 19549 reads

Yet another busy day in terms of volume for Aminex (LON:AEX) . The natural guess is that JP Morgan have been offloading a few more, on top of the 7m they've shifted since the big volume day (and spike in the share price) a week or so ago.

What's intriguing is that someone is obviously very happy to pick up this stock, else the SP would have tanked. No holding declarations about a new holder though but then again, 7m, plus other buys since then could mean they've picked up 10m or so and not need a declaration.

Even more intriguing is that I've been contacted by brokers, asking if I knew of any reason for the surge in volume and price - I don't and neither were they able to offer any reason/rumour.

So what's going on?

The big surge happened well after the rns for the spudding of OM-10 so possibly not related to that then? As it happens, I'm really quite bullish when it comes to our US ops.

So we come to Silly Season - could someone be considering an offer or something with regard to Aminex? Let's face it, one area that's "hot" right now is East Africa and Aex has a sizeable acreage - Nyuni, Ruvuma etc. So let's have some fun. Who might be interested in little old Aminex?

The obvious "problem" is the spread of ops - USA and Tanzania (I'm not going to include Egypt and DPRK). That spread may not appeal to many. However, here's some "starters":

President Petroleum (LON:PPC) - small, backing of Peter Levine (ex Imperial Energy), who bought a 29.9% stake in the old Meridien Petroleum and changed it to PPC. Currently split US and Australia but a "transformational" deal has yet to occur. They've got ops in Louisiana (just increased them in fact - see RNS) that are producing but no sign of the transformational deal. Looking at their website, I'd say that aex's Tanz operations would fit their "mission statement". With PL's backing, financing a deal wouldn't be hard.

Global Petroleum (LON:GBP) - well known to many here. A pile of cash with the US Leighton ops, Malta and the rump exposure to TRP's Uganda play. Again, could see a deal…

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marben100

3rd Aug '10

Hi djp,

Your mobile posting seems to work just fine - but your thumbs must be sore after all that. :0)

** IDLE SPECULATION ALERT **

Seeing as it's silly season... I'd have thought this was an unlikely time to launch a bid (though they do seem to be all the rage right now). Perhaps an alterntaive explanation could be a spot of the old insider trading... by those with connections to the Tanz govt. They would know before Aminex did when agreement was about to be announced on the upgrade of the Songo-Songo plant. I should think that announcement of agreement on that would cause quite a reassessment of the value of the Nyuni acreage in the marketplace... and such an announcement is long overdue.

There are quite a few directions from which a rerating could come. Which is nice. But I don't need to tell you that!

This time next year, Rodney... :0)

Cheers,

Mark

djpreston

Ah, yes, the oldest reason in the book (and most likely really)....

We can always count on you for some sensible comment Mark. ;-)

davjo

Evening djp

Conspiracy theory Aex/dj-349
How's about RAK GAS sniffing around AEX interests in the Nyuni and W.Songo blocks? RAK allegedly pulled out of talks with Key Pet over some dispute about the sale of their interests to them a short while back. After that experience, maybe RAK fancy operatorship/majority interest over Nyuni and position to squeeze Key as nec over W.Songo?

Apparently, RAK GAS holds one majority and seven minority interests in exploration blocks in East Africa and in Egypt.

Or...Aex/dj-350
Substitute RAK GAS with RAK Petroleum admiring AEX Tanzania Ltd as a whole?

Or...Aex/dj-351
DANA Gas (Centurion buyer).........zzzz

Impvesta

4th Aug '10

What's intriguing is that someone is obviously very happy to pick up this stock, else the SP would have tanked. No holding declarations about a new holder though but then again, 7m, plus other buys since then could mean they've picked up 10m or so and not need a declaration.

Market cap £37.1m at 8.75p so to reach a 3% notifiable holding, assuming no starting holding, would need:

(37,100,000 x3%) divided by 0.0875 = 12,720,000 shares

Obviously this is "ish" because it depends what price they are accumulating at but, say 12m shares plus to give a notifiable holding.

But we have had spikes of 14.9m (16/7), 18.4m (23/7) and 10.7m (3/8) compared to usual daily average of up to 3m with the odd day of 4, 5 or 6m.

So you would think that if it was just one buyer they would have got to a notifiable level by now, unless they are still accumulating and don't need to disclose until they have finished? Is that how it works?

Intriguing stuff anyway!

Regards

dbfromgb

As I understand it Key have a (virtual?) data room open to interested parties in Tanzanian assets which will presumably give as much information as is currently available on the true value of those assets. Would parties that have visited the room, and liked what they have seen, be precluded from buying shares in AEX?

RAK gas - logical, and interesting as Davjo says for multiple possibilities.

The share price action seems to mirror a great deal of simultaneous BB activity on ADVFN, the nature of which may indicate some attempt to manipulate activity/price? If you objectively query the motives of some posts, it does raise some interesting questions...

What about Orca? If they took out AEX (and perhaps KEY) then they would have valuable control of that market. Is that possible (could they raise the money, and would it be allowed?)

It is indeed interesting that there are short but very large bursts of significant buying, and that is perhaps indicative either of institutional/corporate stakebuilding (though not yet declared if so) or a series of individual purchasers who (think they) know something.

Turning to USA, if the current well is successful, and they substantially derisk/prove up the circa 18mmboe that has been mooted, then that is 48p a share for Shoats on their valuation, or 24p at $10BOE. What did they find in the upper levels of the well? And lets not forget the placing and what that was for - my guess is that there is a link between the success of this well and the expanded acreage referred to. Plenty of potential for speculation, and a number of interested parties involved.

Ruvuma - given that there is nothing in the price for this, and the interest in adjacent blocks, could this be the interest?

The only solid evidence has been a series of articles along the lines of pipeline expansion approval due shortly - that would therefore seem to be the most obvious catalyst.

Anyway, thanks Darron for starting the thread and allowing a little speculation. If nothing else it has teased out that AEX does have an interesting range of assets, of wide potential interest, that should go some way to limiting the downside, even if (god forbid) the current well is a duster.

Back to waiting impatiently

Norman115

5th Aug '10

According to this article on 4 July, Rak Gas have their East African assets up for sale.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/rak-to-sell-east-african-assets-2017668.html

RAK Gas, a state utility of United Arab Emirate Ras Al Khaimah, has put its East African assets up for sale.

The group has hired the London office of corporate adviser Taylor- DeJongh to sell assets in Tanzania, Somaliland and Egypt. Potential bidders have received a so-called "teaser notice", which provides some basic data on the exploration sites. The teaser is understood to state: "Following a strategic review of its activities, RAK Gas has decided to dispose of its directly held exploration interests."

The four assets, two of which are based in Tanzania, are expected to reach "several tens of millions of dollars", according to a gas industry source. RAK has a 100 per cent stake only in the East Pande block in Tanzania, the rest are minority interests of 20 to 25 per cent.

It is understood that RAK has decided to offload the stakes as it views them as non-core sites that do not provide any domestic gas supply. The stakes might be sold individually, but RAK would prefer to sell them in one bundle.

D1G3Y

10th Aug '10

Over 10m shares traded and the price up 16% at the mo.......

May the Conspiracy theorys continue..... ;o)

morbix

Great rise so far today and hopefully some news to really get the price to fly.

This has been a long time in the waiting.

ManSiarad

Aha, just noticed this thread.

I can certainly see RAK Petroleum being potentially interested, at least in the East African interests - they seem to be gearing up for some activity at present. This from their 1st half report, posted on the UAE and Gulf O & G thread earlier today.

DUBAI, 9 August, 2010--RAK Petroleum Public Company Limited, the oil and gas exploration and production company today announced a net profit of AED 9.6 million for the quarter ended 30 June 2010 (unaudited), its fifth consecutively profitable quarter. The Company posted a net profit of AED 40.1 million for the first half of 2010, compared with a profit of AED 32.1 million for the first half of 2009.

"We are pleased to announce these results and continue to focus on coaxing value out of our existing assets while aggressively evaluating new opportunities," said Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO of RAK Petroleum.

Of course, RAKPET might be more likely to go for the overseas assets, including East Africa, being sold off by the RAK Gas Commission, as noted by Norman115 in post 6 (above). Put those together with AEX, though, and there's a nice little parcel - if RAKPET want to diversify away from Oman and, via DNO, Kurdistan.

And, if we're getting really silly, Dubai-based Black Marlin Energy has an interesting collection of East African interests, for anyone trying to build a position under the nose of the majors:

http://www.blackmarlinenergy.com/index.aspx

As far as the AEX interests are concerned, presumably UAE-based Dana Gas might be interested in taking the Egyptian interest off their hands, to add to their growing presence there. And, with a former GW Bush Ambassador to Iraq, Khalilzad, having recently joined the RAKPET board, no doubt contacts can be made swiftly with some US firm who might be interested in AEX's US assets.

As I recall, Brian Hall isn't altogether unknown in Ra's al-Khaimah and the idea of collaboration in East Africa must, surely, have come up in discussion.

Silly Season thread?

Yes, Darron, of course - and Ramadan begins this week too

So I'll go with this from Davjo (post 3)

With potential for more....

Silly Season thread - AEX

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