Small Cap Value Report (3 Nov 2015) - GTC, HTG, WOR

Tuesday, Nov 03 2015 by
32

Good morning!

Any more questions for my interview with Tracsis (LON:TRCS) later this week? If so, please post as a comment below, or message me via Stockopedia.

Also, just to flag up that I added 4 more companies (Quindell, Epwin, LPA, and Vislink) to yesterday's SCVR in the early evening, so to recap on that, here is the link.


Getech (LON:GTC)

Share price: 35p (down 19.5% today)
No. shares: 32.9m
Market cap: £11.5m

Results y/e 31 Jul 2015 - checking the archive here, I last reported on this small oil services company here on 7 Aug 2015, when the company put out a reasonably upbeat trading statement, saying that whilst "slightly below current market expectations", it would still be reporting a doubling of profit to c.£2.0m. The outlook statement at that time also sounded upbeat, saying that Directors were "increasingly upbeat about the prospects for 2016".

The shares were 53p when I reported on that, and are now 35p, so clearly something has gone wrong. Let's have a look at today's announcement.

Sure enough, the P&L for y/e 31 Jul 2015 looks terrific;

  • Revenue up 26.9% to £8.6m
  • Profit before tax up 99% to £2.0m

Taxation - note that prior year figures benefited from a £574k tax credit, and although it reverted to a tax charge this year, the rate looks low at 9% - so this will inflate EPS in both years, especially last year

Dividends - full year divi held at 2.2p - so a very nice yield of 6.3%, but that's getting into "is it sustainable?" territory.

Balance sheet - is strong, with NTAV at £5.0m.

The current ratio is good, at 1.77

Note that cash, whilst strong at £4.7m, is partially offset by new borrowings of £1.0m, so net cash is actually £3.7m. Furthermore, I note that trade payables are unusually high, at £4.6m plus (very unusually) a further £1.0m of trade payables in long-term creditors. This is almost certainly deferred income - i.e. the other side of the double entry for cash that has been paid up-front by customers. So I reckon the underlying cash position (once the deferred income has unwound) is likely to be much lower than £3.7m.

So for valuation purposes, I would treat this company as being cash/debt neutral, to be on the safe side.

EDIT: I am grateful to eagle-eyed reader, "markusm" who has…

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Getech Group Plc is a United Kingdom-based company, which provides geological services, reports and data to the petroleum and mining industries to assist in their exploration activities. The Company's segments include Multiclient products and services, Consultancy projects and All other segments. Its Multiclient products and services segment includes Globe, which is its live Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Earth platform; Gravity and magnetics, which offers global databases; Multiclient regional reports, which include reports on various exploration areas, and Multi-Satellite Altimeter Gravity Programme, which is a three-year study covering gravity data for the continental margins of the world. Its Consultancy projects include Consultancy and licensing rounds, under which the Company provides technical support and advice to the Mozambique government, and GIS software and services, under which, the Company, through Exprodat Consulting Limited, offers Exploration Analyst Online. more »

LSE Price
24.5p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
9.2
P/E (fwd)
12.1
Yield (fwd)
n/a

Hunting PLC is an international energy services provider to upstream oil and gas companies. The Company's segments include Well Construction, Well Completion, Well Intervention, and Exploration and Production. The Well Construction segment provides products and services used by customers during the drilling phase of oil and gas wells, along with associated equipment used by the underground construction industry for telecommunication infrastructure build-out and precision machining services for the energy, aviation and power generation sectors. The Well Completion segment provides products and services used by customers during the completion phase of oil and gas wells. The Well Intervention segment provides products and services used by customers during the production, maintenance and restoration of existing oil and gas wells. The Exploration and Production segment includes its oil and gas exploration and production activities in the Southern United States and offshore Gulf of Mexico. more »

LSE Price
558p
Change
-2.3%
Mkt Cap (£m)
953.2
P/E (fwd)
13.5
Yield (fwd)
1.6

Oleeo Plc, formerly World Careers Network PLC, is engaged in providing Internet-based recruitment software for the tracking and selection of applicants. The Company’s solutions include customer relationship management (CRM), event management, applicant tracking system (ATS), interview management, program management and talent mobility. CRM solution includes talent engagement engine and content management, talent pools and pipeline, talent relationship management (TRM) and flags, campaigns and e-mail communications, and engagement dashboard. Event management solution includes registration form builder, candidate registration, registrant self service check-in, mobile app and registrant communication center. ATS solution includes candidate profile books, reference collection, screening and applicant tracking. Its program management solution includes program tracker, performance management, metrics templates and preference placement management. more »

LSE Price
160p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
12.2
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a



  Is LON:GTC fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


18 Comments on this Article show/hide all

derriman 3rd Nov '15 1 of 18
3

Very good and balanced report on Getech (LON:GTC).
Well done

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markusm 3rd Nov '15 2 of 18
4

Paul,

I note that Getech intangibles have risen from £513,476 to £2,046,499, which seems excessive combined with the large Goodwill coming from the acquisition of ERCL. There is no note explaining these intangibles. This is a little worrying to me and combined with the poor outlook caused me to sell this morning.

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kenobi 3rd Nov '15 3 of 18

As you say who knows when the oil sector will turn around (perhaps only the Saudis ?), however there is a strong argument to suggest it won't for a long time go back to the $100+ level, that although the Saudis will inflict huge damage on the shale/high cost sector, when they finally back off and let prices rise, as they reach $70 or $80 in quiet short timescales, shale capacity will be bought back on line, perhaps by new owners of the assets, and that shale will become the new swing producer, that increases during high prices and decreases during low prices. The one caveat about this is environmental, if it's found that shale is polluting drinking water or causing other enviromental damage and more burdens are added to it perhaps it will become less attractive. However at the same time, they're learning to drill wells and frack them faster and at lower cost. How big is the shale resource in terms of volume ? for the sake of this argument we can probably consider it infinite, the more important issue is what is the likely production rates that will be reached at various different oil prices ?

K

PS there may well be a political element of hurting the russians for invading ukraine here too, so unless you feel you have some insight into what might happen under a new president, (trump for example has promised to destroy any oil producing facilities held by isis ), it's a tricky one to call.

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MacroVal 3rd Nov '15 4 of 18
1

Forgive my ignorance -

"So I reckon the underlying cash position (once the deferred income has unwound) is likely to be much lower than £3.7m."

Record cash / def rev:

Debit Cash £100
Credit Deferred Revenue (£100)

Recognize income (unwind):

Debit Deferred Revenue £100
Credit Subscription Revenue (£100)

Why do you suggest unwinding the deferred rev will affect the cash position? The cash is in the bank.

Thanks

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hayashi22 3rd Nov '15 5 of 18

If WHI is the shop to Getech it sounds exactly the sort of stock they stuffed that poor old pensioner with!

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Paul Scott 3rd Nov '15 6 of 18
5

In reply to post #110364

Hi MacroVal,

Yes, the cash is in the bank, but Getech has to incur all the costs of providing whatever services they have been paid up-front for. That's why personally I always offset deferred income against cash, because that cash really is the customer's money, paid up-front for services which have not yet been supplied by Getech.

As Getech has large, lumpy contracts, its deferred income could unwind, without being replaced by new deferred income. In that case, the cash pile would rapidly deplete, as it incurs all the costs of providing the agreed service to its clients.

Therefore, the way I look at it, the cash on Getech's balance sheet should NOT be regarded as belonging to the company, or available for other uses, since it could be used up in operating costs, if the deferred income were to unwind.

Regards, Paul.

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Paul Scott 3rd Nov '15 7 of 18
1

In reply to post #110355

Hi markusm,

Ah yes, I forgot about that! Many thanks for flagging up, I will mention that in the report now.
Getech has indeed capitalised a big lump of costs into intangibles.

Regards, Paul.

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skyjacker 3rd Nov '15 8 of 18
3

Hi Paul,

Another good report from you today. I'm regular reader but I do rarely post.

Re. GTC Long term payables, I think they might be related to ERCL acquisition earlier in the year, there was deferred consideration of £1.55m to be paid if all conditions are met in 3 years time. If oil price will remain low over this period consideration might be considerably smaller.

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stock_Hunter 3rd Nov '15 9 of 18

Hi Paul, Have you go through AMS announcement ? What is your view?

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Dennism 3rd Nov '15 10 of 18

Hi Paul - reference questions for Tracsis (LON:TRCS) later this week, I saw them at a ShareSoc seminar in Altrincham last week and John McArthur delivered a great presentation. When I did a bit more research on their sectoral numbers (revenues are provided but not profits), I noticed that more than half their revenues now come from the data capture, analytics and passenger counting sector which is more subject to competitive pressure and I assume lower margin. I assume their most profitable product area is the licences for their proprietary rolling stock and crew planning and analysis software - recurring rev's and high gross margins? There was welcome growth in this area in H1 but its only about 25% of the biz and I assume they have now penetrated a large percentage of the accessible UK rail and bus market so my concern would be a fully saturated market in the short term. The condition monitoring sector looks to be primarily trackside equipment sales and these are lumpy and, I suspect, limited in growth potential (there are only so many points and signals that need to be monitored). So, at present, I'm feeling a bit pessimistic on longer term growth and margin prospects unless John has more up his sleeve. It would be interesting to hear his views on my observations.

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cyberbub 3rd Nov '15 11 of 18

Paul thanks for another useful SCVR, frank and educational as always!

Sorry for the 'off topic', but you reported some months ago on a company that was manufacturing innovative fibre board, I think it was Netherlands-based? I can't for the life of me remember its name, and no luck searching. Can you remember what it is called, or its ticker?

Thanks.

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Mark Carter 3rd Nov '15 12 of 18
1

Just thought i'd add a little note about Oil & Gas: what we've been seeing this year is that clients had been both curtailing the volume of work they were doling out, but also demanding rate reductions. So it's been ta double-whammy.

If the oil price picks up, then of course all this could reverse again, as talent may have moved on, and it becomes difficult to recruit again. Maybe. Possibly. Perhaps.

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jimbobjames2002 3rd Nov '15 13 of 18

Thanks for a great report as always Paul,

Interesting point about free float – it’s not something I’ve really looked at that much. Out of interest, what minimum percentage level would you deem acceptable to not be too illiquid?

Cheers, James

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hayashi22 3rd Nov '15 14 of 18
3

In reply to post #110388

You may be thinking of Accsys Technologies-Netherlands and UK based outfit.

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hayashi22 3rd Nov '15 15 of 18

its supposed to be in reply to post 11 by cyberhub

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cyberbub 3rd Nov '15 16 of 18

In reply to post #110403

Thanks Hayashi, that's the one!

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JDW72 3rd Nov '15 17 of 18
3

Paul has prompted a thought..... I have been looking at Pressure Technologies and a few other O&G related shares wondering about the timing of buying. At some point in the future this is going to look like a great time to have bought but only the shares that are still around in the future!!

Perhaps we could between us pull together a list of smaller O&G related shares with strong balance sheets (assuming that this is the best predictor of longevity right now)? Then if an individual bought a basket of them in small quantities they would in effect create their own mini "Small O&G plays with strong balance sheets" fund.

There must be a way to create a Stocko screen that'd do an initial filter to take out the 75% of rubbish leaving a smaller set to dig into in a bit more detail.

Even if the oil price doesn't go back up much in a hurry, as far as I know we still need to keep finding the stuff and getting it out the ground so there has to be some money made by some of these firms.

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MacroVal 4th Nov '15 18 of 18
1

In reply to post #110373

Paul,

Yes, I see - seems sensible

Thanks

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 Are LON:GTC's fundamentals sound as an investment? Find out More »



About Paul Scott

Paul Scott

I trained as an accountant with a Top 5 firm, but that was so boring that I spent too much time in the 1990s being a disco bunny, and busting moves on the dancefloor, and chilling out with mates back at either my house or theirs, and having a lot of fun!Then spent 8 years as FD for a ladieswear retail chain called "Pilot", leaving on great terms in 2002 - having been a key player in growing the business 10 fold. If the truth be told, I partied pretty hard at the weekends too, so bank reconciliations on Monday mornings were more luck than judgement!! But they were always correct.I got bored with that and decided to become a professional small caps investor in 2002. I made millions, but got too cocky, and lost the lot in 2008, due to excessive gearing. A miserable, wilderness period occurred from 2008-2012.Since then, the sun has begun to shine again! I am now utterly briliant again, and immerse myself in small caps, and am a walking encyclopedia on the subject. I love writing a daily report for Stockopedia.com on most weekday mornings, constantly researching daily results & trading updates for small caps. Cheese! more »

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