Good morning!

I really enjoyed the discussion in the comments section of yesterday's report, so thank you to everyone who contributed. I suppose there was a certain irony in me bemoaning the post-fact nature of a lot of popular discussion. Only to illustrate my point with something (Brexit polls) where my own recollection wasn't entirely accurate!

Still, that did illustrate the proper process - someone points out that you may not be entirely accurate in what you're saying. You check the evidence they provide. If they're right, then you revise your opinion in light of the fresh information provided. That's how things should work, but sadly often does not - especially on social media - because ego and stubbornness get in the way.

I am becoming increasingly convinced that the world was a much better place before social media was invented. Hopefully there will be a backlash against Facebook in due course. Mind you, it is very good at catching criminals & fraudsters apparently. I've just been watching a TV programme about how insurance fraudsters, and other bad people often give themselves away through their social media postings.




Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR)

Share price: 1100p
No. shares: 115.2m
Market cap: £1,267.2m

Trading update - not a small cap any more, but it's topical & interesting, so I have some comments. This maker of premium fizzy drinks is worth a mention, as it nicely illustrates the point of how "expensive" shares can keep going up to seemingly stratospheric levels.

The key here is repeated improvements to expected performance. The latest update, out yesterday said;

The Board is pleased to announce that Fever-Tree has continued to perform strongly in the second half of the year.

The performance in the UK, the Group's largest market, has been particularly strong as new distribution gains have combined with a continued rate of sales growth.

Given the strong sales in the period to date, the Board anticipates that the results for the full year ending 31 December 2016 will be materially ahead of current market expectations


That's pretty remarkable stuff - at this late point in the year, I wouldn't normally expect any "materially ahead" statements - as most companies will probably know how this year is likely to play out. That's for companies with a 31 Dec year end, of course. So Fevertree must really be trading…

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