Small Cap Value Report (Mon 20 Sep 2021) - FIF, CHRT, ZOO, CTG, WIL

19th Sep '21 by Paul Scott

105 comments 10368 reads

Good morning, it's Paul & Roland here with Monday's SCVR. Today's report is now finished.

We like to keep you on your toes, by switching the writers without warning! Welcome back Roland - thanks for your fantastic contributions.

Paul's preamble -

I've relocated from Malta to Madeira (via Heathrow) this weekend, for the next fortnight, and am thinking about what other islands beginning with M that I could try next? Madagascar springs to mind! Anyway, I've got my laptop with me, decent wifi (more reliable than in my London home anyway), and of course a box of Yorkshire Teabags, so can happily work anywhere!

Incidentally, Heathrow T5 seemed to be very busy when I got there at some ungodly hour on Saturday morning. By about 08:00, I'd say it looked (subjectively) similarly busy to pre-pandemic. So the re-opening, re-start of travel trade, looks back on. I mentioned this to the BA stewardess, en route to Madeira. I asked her, is it time to buy shares in travel companies? Yes, she replied, every flight is full, and the staff are so happy to be busy again. As a friend mentioned though, caution is needed because the capacity might be lower, so this needs some expert comment, I'm just mentioning this as half-baked scuttlebutt.

Also the recent data that out of 50k deaths with (not necessarily entirely from) covid this year, only 59 people had been double-vaccinated, and had no underlying health issues, is of absolutely seismic importance. Think about it. That's 0.1%. Many people are happy with those odds, to get on with life, instead of hiding away maybe forever. I know I am, and have taken far worse odds quite routinely as part of normal life - e.g. pulling out of a blind junction without knowing whether a speeding artic is around the corner or not, etc.

Risk is all around us, all the time. Investing is all about trying to assess the risks, and the upside, risk:reward. I think at the moment, with speculative share prices generally very high and a lot of macro risk out there (inflation, Fed tapering, supply chain, shortages of everything, etc), then risk:reward looks potentially dicey for some shares. This market looks complacent. Not so much with UK value shares, but in the US in particular it seems euphoric & poised for a correction.

Blockchain seems an obvious, and excessive speculative…

Unlock with Email

Unlock with Google

Already have an account?
Login here

MassimoJ

20th Sep '21

Anybody know what was in the Liberum report (apart from a downgrade to Sell) to cause Naked Wines (LON:WINE) to drop 15% today...?!

timarr

"Just one step closer to full blown communism." ... What a load of tripe - we have very few things forced or thrust on us in this country

Oh but it's true. As soon as I had the vaccine I suddenly developed an overwhelming urge to overthrow the established order, and establish a new one structured upon the ideas of common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes, money and the state.

Mind you, everyone else just said they had a sore arm.

timarr

davidjhill

I try not to comment on vaccine related posts as it is highly emotive. However, it is worth pointing out that in the UK it is enshrined in our constitution/legislation (back to late 1800's) that no UK government can force a person to take a drug against their will. ie It is every adults right to determine what drugs they put into their body. This very law was introduced and protected because of the introduction of vaccines as a safeguard. To ride roughshod over this (even given the serious nature of covid) is quite a serious democratic issue that should not be taken lightly and breaching it has long term unintended consequence. This is quite possibly why the government backed away from vaccine for nightclubs for example as it would almost certainly have been challenged at the highest UK courts as a point of constitution.

There are risks to vaccines. We should remember that technically the covid vaccines are still "experimental" pending results of longer term studies. We know that blood clots and myocarditis are potentially serious side effects and appear to have bigger impacts in the young. We have very little idea about any long term impact. This part of the population has almost zero deaths from covid. When they balance the risk for themselves I can understand why they may choose either option or even to go with a single vaccine dose for example. We should not be restricting their right to live normally based on which drug they put in their body.

I am of the age where having looked at both my sets of risks I chose to get vaccinated but that was my choice based on my own risk assessment. It is very dangerous in my view to create campaigns of fear as they tend to whip up a torch and pitchfork approach and polarise factions of society, something we should be desperately striving to avoid rather than encourage.

covkid

Simple solution.................you don't have the vaccine you don't get treated if you catch Covid...........

it's not a simple solution. Let's take that a step further - if you smoke you can't get treated if you get any tobacco related illness, and if you drink you can't get treated for alcohol related illness (so that's most cancers and heart conditions btw). What about obesity, shall we add that in? Please do consider your comments. Everyone pays taxes you simply cannot discriminate in such a way nor should we be advocating anything of the sort.

laurie

Nothing is simple. https://www.gov.uk/vaccine-dam...

Abbas

My first time reading these articles as they seem quite long but your views at the end of each stock report is really useful.

johnsmith68

Thanks David. I was being a little facetious about the default risk but I appreciate the insight. The fact the extension on this occasion amounts to just a couple of weeks made me wonder if the transaction might be near to completion or at least conclusion one way or another.

bryaz

covkid i hope you apply that to smokers and obese people my wife had an horrendous reaction to the vaccine but i suppose you would say that she would be collateral damage

Tombholliday

Scepticism on Zoo since last Autumn seems misplaced as the share price even after the setback has doubled could Jack as a Yorkshire sceptic have a closer look

slord54

I hold. Was very impressed by the recent presentation.

My thoughts are potentially a six month lockup ending on the initial institutional investors?

Or read across from the US, where it looks like the FDA are restricting the sale of vaping products by small and mid size companies. No doubt the big tobacco companies here will be pushing for the same thing:
Politico Link

MrContrarian

There are other blockchain coins that have a much lower energy overhead. Bitcoin was only a demo of blockchain and not intended as a general trading currency.

I should have said the energy cost of a Bitcoin transaction is over 100000 x Visa. The 2% cost of Visa is mostly a 'brand' tax.

I can make paypal and bank transfers for zero cost to me.

dtg46

I fear that one lesson politicians will RElearn from the Covid pandemic is that if you frighten the population sufficiently the majority will back suppression of minority views and support their persecution. Like you I am myself fully vacinated but I am also of suffient age to be aware that it is not only communist regimes which may suppress freedom but righ wing nationalist ones too. I guess I'm just one of those "liberals" who believe in tolerance towards differences.

ijh9547

21st Sep '21

On a different topic; I have recently become a French resident and have been informed by my brokers (Barclays) that they can no longer allow me to trade. Can anyone recommend a broker that accommodates non resident UK citizens to trade on the London Stock Exchange?

Rusty2

I'm not sure but Ig Group (LON:IGG) maybe worth trying, they have international clients. It is a basic platform but the fees are low.

Also DeGiro I have seen mentioned by European residents.

Paul Scott

We're sceptical on fundamentals with Zoo Digital (LON:ZOO) with good reason, as explained in the article. Share prices are completely different, and move about on market sentiment, we don't have any views on that, and are not trying to predict what short term share prices do, which is based on market sentiment.

Other people obviously think the company has good prospects. We're just saying that so far, it has failed to deliver any meaningful profits/cashflows in its 20 years history.

Hope that clarifies.

Paul.

Sure, just jump to the conclusions ("My Opinion") or the short summaries at the top, if you're time-poor. We put them in for that reason, to help people quickly identify anything of interest, not having to read the whole thing!

PerpetualValue123

hear hear davidjhill. The lack of ethics and empathy by Michael and others are very concerning. One should really wonder to emigrate if they chose not to vaccinate (yet).

There are very good reasons to not inject yet for healthy adolescents. They have negligible risk for Covid19 and therefore good reason to await the long-term safety studies.
It is concerning that adverse reactions like blood clots and myocarditis only have shown up after the CONDITIONAL approval.
There are many scientific studies that show that natural immunity is much stronger than the vaccine-induced protection. Also the natural immunity is much broader since the vaccine is only based on the S-spike protein and therefore narrow in protection.

The anger and madness of some people here are disheartening and very scary. Pushing their views on other people, with no respect for bodily autonomy.

Real-world data shows that transmission is not reduced at all. Therefore you are not vaccinating 'for another'.

Public Health England, Technical Briefing #23, page 19-20 :

vaccinated deaths are now at 74,4%.

Delta cases, age > 50:
vaccinated: 79,434 (89,2%)
unvaccinated: 8,551 (10,8%)

Deaths, age >50:
vaccinated: 1,714 (74,4%)
unvaccinated: 590 (25,6%)

Source:
https://assets.publishing.serv...

"Also the recent data that out of 50k deaths with (not necessarily entirely from)
covid this year, only 59 people had been double-vaccinated, and had no
underlying health issues, is of absolutely seismic importance. "

Paul, what is your source for this? By the way, >80% of C19 deaths have underlying comorbidities.

Here is the Public Health England, Technical Briefing #23, page 19-20 :

vaccinated deaths are now at 74,4%.

22nd Sep '21

Michael, how about that you don't decide over anyone's else body?
Have you ever heard about the right on bodily autonomy that are implemented in the constitutional rights?
If your vaccine (you scream everywhere that you are vaccinated and seem to be very proud of it) works so well (95% efficiency right?), why are you so darn scared and intruding on other's people's constitutional rights?

Hypothesis
vaccine 95% effective. Almost all deaths are in 75+ and with underlying comorbidities. Then vaccinate them and the problem is almost completely over, right?

Small Cap Value Report (Mon 20 Sep 2021) - FIF, CHRT, ZOO, CTG, WIL

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

About the Author

Paul Scott

105 comments

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...