I know I’ve made the odd comment about $15 and $20 a barrel on the TGD thread for SOCO International (LON:SIA) but that was largely from the gut without too much thought, hence a bit more application now… Firstly, AFAIA, nobody has ever put a figure on how much the Lizeroux 20% minority interest should be discounted for their carried interest. This is obviously important since Soco include Lizeroux’s entitlements in their booked reserves. Personally, I think Soco should be estimating what these amount to in the Annual Report notes.
It’s impossible to be accurate but I’ll suggest Lizeroux’s holding should be reduced to around 12.5% going forward to first production at TGT. In round figures, I’m thinking 20% of say $500m invested over 10 years, the bulk in more recent times, charged at 9% interest is likely to run up a bill currently of say $150m…bearing in mind of course that a certain amount of carried interest bills will have already been paid back from CNV production. Unless anyone else believes these figures are shaky, I think 12.5% forms a pretty solid basis. So, SV’s booked reserves need discounting by 12.5%. We also need to account for gas reserves being worth less than oil. As at 31 Dec 2009 booked Vietnam reserves were 124mmboe. My split on that is CNV 24 oil + 8 gas, plus TGT 92 oil. Total 116mmbls + 8mmboe
For the year end December 2010 booked reserves, I’d estimate an added 10 mmbbls for TGT making a total 126mmbbls + 8mmboe. Ok, that might look conservative but I’ve seen it all before where people get too excited on upgrades that don‘t materialise. One also has to bear in mind that potential downgrades on CNV (quite possible - even likely given production rates to date vs. production licence period) won’t be apparent in the overall Vietnam reserves declaration. So, knocking off the 12.5% Lizeroux component we get y/end 2010 110mmbbls + 7mmboe. At $15/bbl and $5/boe, 358m shares out fully diluted(incl conv) equates to 295p/sh.
This exercise is meant to seek a rock solid core valuation when contemplating a sale of Vietnam assets in the market without any consideration for TGD or additional reserves which may or may not result from TGT production history in future. Apart from the…
Hi ee,
I wasn't misquoting you but I see next to no chance of that happening in 6 weeks. I said you mentioned that timescale, which you did.
I don't get this 'essentially speculative' nonsense either. I was comparing these companies to son of Soco
What is speculative about Encore's discoveries apart from the fact that they could turn out to be a lot bigger than the market currently believes? What about the track record of management/technical people? Buzzard/Breagh/Cladhan and Catcher ain't too shabby, imv.
Ditto Sterling with four major discoveries, three coming into production and another one of which could be huge?
Ithaca with firm plans and funding to raise production from 5k to 23k BOPD in a couple of years?
XEL. If they get the flow test, which one analyst with a far better technical understanding of the play then you'll ever have, gives it a 80% chance of success and has had an unrisked value of C$ 22. Current share price C$3.50
Of course there's a risk element attached. Soco shareholders understand this better than most but in comparison with a son of Soco, I would prefer even a new play such as DEO, because it has both assets and people with an intimate NS knowledge, within a much more stable political environment. I think all those I mentioned have better technical knowledge on their chosen patch than son of Soco and there is a big question mark over future management for such an operation.
In the circumstances to say that the likes of Encore Oil is essentially speculative in comparison with wildcat exploration, with most likely a fairly new management team in part, in Africa is laughable. The same argument applies to the rest of the companies I mentioned.
repobear
PS Sorry that had to be said, and this is coming from someone who has benefitted from your insights on Soco and elsewhere and greatly values your input. If you could broaden your application of expertise to other oil and gas companies, I feel that you would make more money and it would help this site to evolve. Dismissing companies, which actually could be recognised as in Soco's peer group before too long as 'essentially speculative' does nobody any favours, imv.
