It really does become difficullt to keep track of all the end game timings and various price targets. So I though I would keep track of them here :
ee reckons Soco will be sold for more then £6.60 :emptyend
28 Aug'12 - 11:45 - 9165 of 9172
loglorry think no more then £4.40
Hi Isaac,
Despite the title, you forgot the ' timings' part.......
You also forgot to 'get the ball rolling' by sharing your own expectations/aspirations.
Are you perchance under the weather ? ;-)
ATB
OK I'll have a go. My guess, fwiw ...
In October 2013 Soco shares will be trading at about 50p. The rest of the value will have been returned to holders - guessing 450p per share capital distribution - from the sale of Soco Vietnam (guessing sale in September 2013).
Mystic Flog
I'm not sure I ever said "no more than 4.40". Anyway I think 4.40 would price in current news. Obviously if there was TGT upgrades or a find in Africa etc. things could be very different. As the current state of play stands with current production where it is and reserves where they are and the way the market current discounts reserves I don't think £4.40 as a target price is that far out though.
Log
Obviously if there was TGT upgrades or a find in Africa etc. things could be very different
Sheesh!!!!
A get-out clause of mammoth proportions!!!
My expectations obviously include expectations of a TGT upgrade, as I have repeatedly said!
As the current state of play stands with current production where it is and reserves where they are and the way the market current discounts reserves I don't think £4.40 as a target price is that far out though.
So...basically...your "there probably is another 50-100p to come for Soco holders if they are patient" isn't worth the pixels it was written on.
Total lack of balls too, for trying to weasel out of your own comments whilst at the same time criticising me for being too bullish.
Man or mouse? I think we know now......
ee
My guess FWIW is an upgrade in late Q1 2013 after H4 drilling. I'm not expecting huge things from the connectivity issue, so a sale in July 2013, valuing the whole company at £6 (that could include a sale at £5.50 of SV with the remainder from Africa.).
ET
Crikey ee have you been taking steroids or something? Calm down a bit.
It is a rather obvious statement that if a reserves upgrade for TGT comes out which for example doubles reserves then I would expect a higher share price. Dito a big Africa find. I was merely trying to correct Issac's quote which missed out a lot of context where he said that I thought "no more than £4.40". Clearly if the news changes so will my view on share price both up and down.
Actually I don't think we are so far apart in our valuations. The only difference perhaps is that I'm not as certain that some of the events that you expect are nailed on. For example I'm not so convinced about the pressure connectivity thesis that might lead to a big reserve upgrade. I'm also not as convinced about a company or Vn asset sale in the short term as you seem to be.
Notwithstanding all these things that could or may happen I still regard Soco as undervalued and that's why I have a core holding here. The main reason I think this is that I think the reserves are worth $20/bbl in the ground due to good tax regime, low oppex and premium to Brent the oil sells at.
Thus ignoring ifs and maybe's you have a 130m (2P) at $20/bbl gives $2600m or about £1.65bn vs a current market cap of about £1.1bn and £112m of cash and Africa in for free. This is how I arrive at around about a 450p price tag for what is there now.
So before you get all bloody high and mighty as always try to listen to what others are writing instead of just putting them down if they don't agree with what you write.
So I don't think my comments that 450p or there about is so fatal. As far as I can tell most price targets only give a very small risk based emphasis on things like potential reserve upgrades or bid premia and I was just doing the same.
I'm just not sure why you have to be so uppity and point scoring about things. You make a valuable contribution but it seems to always come with a clause that you deserve reverence for it.
Log
I'm just not sure why you have to be so uppity and point scoring about things. You make a valuable contribution but it seems to always come with a clause that you deserve reverence for it.
Pot calling the kettle black there.
I merely took what you wrote at face value, as did Isaac. There was no "context" to omit - other than the context of you slagging my ADVFN thoughts off as too optimistic.
Now that we can all see that you don't actually mean much of what you write (and wouldn't stick by your own comments anyway) then we can place the appropriate discount factor on your contributions.
I expect my number to be proved up via M&A, rather than via the emergence of new news per se. And if M&A produced a lower number for the valuation of SOCO International (LON:SIA) I'd have no hesitation in admitting I was wrong......I wouldn't be saying "yes but" and weaselling out of my prior comments about value.
Timing, of course, always remains tricky - but if I was Paolo Scaroni I'd be getting organised right now, with all the troops back from the beaches.
ee
"slagging my ADVFN thoughts off as too optimisitc" - you really are loosing it - I think you need to calm down a bit and take a chill pill. Why would you care if I thought your valuations were optimistic anyway. It really doesn't matter what I think its just a view like yours. Or perhaps your view is more important?
I haven't seen any deals done at $25+/bbl for 2P or whatever you think the M&A will will prove up. I suspect that is why analysts and most others are not expecting that sort of deal either but you know what you might well be correct. Especially since Mr Scraoni and his troops back from the beach - that could/would/shout make all the difference I expect.
Squeek squeek!
Log
"slagging my ADVFN thoughts off as too optimisitc" - you really are loosing it - I think you need to calm down a bit and take a chill pill.
Thanks for the further abuse.
Why would you care if I thought your valuations were optimistic anyway. It really doesn't matter what I think its just a view like yours. Or perhaps your view is more important?
I don't care a damn. I really don't. But you appear to care about mine, popping up whenever I venture a view....and now, it seems, you want to weasel out of your own very recent and clear views. Fine - but I am only pointing out that fact. You (quite rightly) would complain if I rewrote my views to include previously undisclosed caveats - so you shouldn't whinge.
I haven't seen any deals done at $25+/bbl for 2P or whatever you think the M&A will will prove up. I suspect that is why analysts and most others are not expecting that sort of deal either
Neither have I. Nor do I expect there to be. My expectations of the value of a deal are based on my guesstimates of 2P and 3P - as I've repeatedly made clear. I've pointed out a number of times that I'm not constrained to a model based on historical published 2P - unlike the analysts -and that is the principal source of differences.
You are an Aesop's fable!:
Aesop's Fable: The Mouse And The Weasel
A little starveling Mouse had made his way with some difficulty into a basket of corn, where, finding the entertainment so good, he stuffed and crammed himself to such an extent, that when he would have got out again he found the hole was too small to allow his puffed-up body to pass. As he sat at the hole groaning over his fate, a Weasel, who was brought to the spot by his cries, thus addressed him: "Stop there, my friend, and fast till you are thin; for you will never come out till you reduce yourself to the same condition as when you entered."
I was looking for evidence of past "audited" reserves numbers, both the 2010 & 2011 annual reports state they are unaudited.
Does anyone know :
1)Has there ever been a published reserves audit,or numbers that state audited & the auditer
2)Who audits SOCO's reserves.
FH
I was looking for evidence of past "audited" reserves numbers, both the 2010 & 2011 annual reports state they are unaudited.
Does anyone know :
1)Has there ever been a published reserves audit,or numbers that state audited & the auditer
2)Who audits SOCO's reserves.
The last time there was an audited (aka independent...the word "audited" risks confusion with the auditors of the financial accounts) assessment of reserves was in 2008 (2008 AR). I'm looking in to who did it that time - but there is no guarantee that it would be the same this time.
ps..... the 2008 revisions in relation to TGT would have been based on the Reserves Assessment Report for TGT that was submitted to the VN Government in April 2008.
If its 660p that the Soco BOD want we will be here a very very long time IMV.
Thats a brave thing to say. I would say it depends almost entirely on how things pan out,
for example, how big will the reserves update be ?
can a buyer be convinced of a 50% recovery factor ?
how significant is the interconnection theory ? can it be proven ?
how much more oil is found in H5, not to mention the African portfollio ?
660 might be unlikely tomorrow, (though always possible if someone else has seen some convincing data),
but who's to say that things might not look very different at christmas or in the new year ?
No harm speculating on takeout prices, but there are big unknowns yet, the biggest, and hopefully soonest is the matter of the reserves.
re passing away, it's in poor taste, and hasn't someone significant already passed away ? I'm afraid the chaps name escapes me now, but many of his shares are held in some kind of trust or fund as I recall,
K
ps..... the 2008 revisions in relation to TGT would have been based on the Reserves Assessment Report for TGT that was submitted to the VN Government in April 2008.
The 2008 RAP was presumably commissioned by Hoang Long. It will be interesting to learn therefore if this is the case this time around, or whether SOCO is doing so off its own bat. If it's the former, then I'd guess there's consensus amongst the partners for the need, in light of results so far, which may be the trigger for the JOC to commit to expanding facilities? Would explain no commitment to date. In any event, I suspect the VN gov wouldn't sanction without. OTOH, if SOCO have commisioned independently, one assumes its objective, as much as anything else, is to back their case to expand.
re passing away, it's in poor taste, and hasn't someone significant already passed away ? I'm afraid the chaps name escapes me now, but many of his shares are held in some kind of trust or fund as I recall,
You never know what is around the corner - Anything can hapen to anyone. Not many people think about death, it is a reality, sadly. This life is short, 60-70 years? That is nothing.
If I had a fraction of the wealth management does i would be long gone by now....pursuing other interests.
I mean why would anyone want to go into an office every day and sit in front of a computer screen ? Surely there are more interesting things to do in life.
The problem with mankind is GREED - that will never go away. No matter how much you have you always want more, problem is you forget what it feels like to have little so by having more and more you never really appreciate it.
Tempting fate, Isaac?
How about this for your epitaph ?
Here I lie, thin and pale.
Waiting for that Soco sale.
Those directors, hale and hearty.
Had fun at my funeral party.
All my wealth, it went to waste.
Should not have posted in bad taste.
F&F
As I say you never know when one's time is about to end - hence why you have to make the most of life and what I am saying is it is not important to increase your wealth from say £20m to £25m - What's the point?
A few weeks ago one of the co-founders of Microsoft, Paul Allen yacht (Octopus) came to the docks for the Olympics, it cost over $200mn sitting in the water. I thought to myself what's the point in having such luxury?
The yacht is equipped with two helicopters, two submarines, a swimming pool, a music studio and a basketball court.
It actually makes me quite angry when I read all of this as I know there are plenty of empty stomachs in 3rd world countries of people dying.
Imagine how many stomachs that $200mn sitting on sea could have fed? It is actually pretty sad that even in this moden era we have people dying from starvation.
