Stock In Focus Portfolio: The First 10 Years + Q1 Update

Mon 2:06pm by Roland Head

14 comments 1270 reads

On 19 April 2026, the Stock in Focus portfolio will be 10 years old. This rules-based portfolio was conceived during a casual chat with Ed in 2016. I wondered if I could create a set of screening rules to help me build a portfolio that would beat the market.

The strategy I adopted was influenced by notable guru investors including Jim Slater and Joel Greenblatt. I also added momentum metrics and a minimum holding period, after which stocks are reviewed for potential sale (and many are sold).

Dividends were always a requirement, but I upped my yield requirement last year to reflect the portfolio’s tilt towards an income strategy.

While SIF is a model portfolio, I’ve invested a part of my own portfolio in this strategy since 2017, so I’ve always had skin in the game.

Here’s a brief overview of how the strategy works:

I select new shares from my SIF stock-buying screen in a weekly review, adding new shares when possible, while taking into account diversification by sector and the number of existing holdings;
Shares are held for a minimum of nine months. However, if a stock issues a profit warning or falls by more than 25% below the portfolio’s cost price, it’s sold at the next weekly review;
After nine months, I test shares against my SIF stock-selling screen. If they pass all the rules, they remain in the portfolio subject to a rolling monthly review. If they fail, they’re sold.

The SIF buying screen can be viewed here.

SIF: 10-year performance

Barring market armageddon in the next couple of days, here’s how the portfolio has performed during its first decade:

Note: SIF portfolio dividends are included from 2025 onwards. The All-Share index excludes dividends.

In total, the SIF portfolio has delivered a gain of 139% since April 2016, or 9% annualised (including dividends since January 2025).
The FTSE All-Share index has risen by 70% on an equivalent basis over the same period, giving an annualised return of 5.5%.

A quick look at the chart above suggests that the portfolio has only outperformed in some years. Annual performance data confirm this. SIF has only outperformed the All-Share index in five of the last 10 years:

Unlock with Email

Unlock with Google

Already have an account?
Login here

Josh Barton

Thu 9:15am

Hi thanks for this Roland!

Can I ask, do you reinvest dividends or just keep them as cash for when an opportunity identifies itself?

WTT

Thu 9:27am

What was its biggest DD in % over the 10 years out of interest?

Epitychia

Thu 10:04am

The interesting point about this portfolio is the sell review at nine months. Personally, i review at six months and tend to go for more momentum style firms.

Roland mentions that performance is similar to the NAPS which has a twelve month holding period. I would be interested for any comments on whether the shorter holding period has helped or not.

jamest007

Thu 11:46am

Getting out of an oil share, Seplat Energy (as the oil price sits around the $100 mark) without any analysis on the impact of significantly higher oil prices seems a bit strange to me.

Roland Head

Thu 12:35pm

Hi Epitychia,

My initial rules when I started SIF were for a sell review at six months. I changed to nine months after the first year or two (I can't remember exactly) for a couple of reasons:

Update: I discussed this change in more detail (with additional backtesting) in this 2020 piece:

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

In short, the main reasons for my switch were:

- I modelled what would have happened if I'd extended six months to nine and found that my results would have been better if I'd held for nine months. Obviously this is quite subjective and only tested against a small subset of stocks; it won't apply to all strategies.

- A nine month holding period was more consistent with my use of RS1y (1-year relative strength), which research has found is more predictive over 6-12 months.

- More tangibly, I wanted to be sure that every company issued a fresh set of accounts (to be digested by the Stocko algorithms) during its time in the portfolio. In my view, this approach provides a more objective view on whether the stock still meets my original criteria for an extended holding period.

For example, if both the share price and earnings have risen, the P/E and PEG ratio may be unchanged. Over <6 months, that kind of progress doesn't show up in the accounts and valuation metrics: instead, the shares simply appear to get more expensive.

One other comment re. SIF and NAPS - what I meant to say is that the ratio of winners to losers in SIF has been very similar to NAPS on a 10-year view. The two portfolio's actual performance has differed significantly at times.

Roland

Thu 12:36pm

Thanks Josh,

All dividends are held in SIF and reinvested over time, supporting gradual growth in position sizing.

Thu 12:43pm

Hi WTT,

I don't have a record of drawdowns, but I'm fairly sure it was at the start of the pandemic.

From 19 Feb 20 to 19 Mar 20, the portfolio fell by 30%.

For much of 2020 , I had a temporary 'no sell' rule, on the basis that I didn't want to sell anything at such bombed out prices (I hoped this was true!). As it happens, this paid off well and allowed me to benefit from the market rebound.

Holding cash in the portfolio going into 2020 meant that I was also able to add new stocks during this period.

I discussed SIF's 2020 performance in this review:

Thu 12:47pm

Hi jamest007,

Taking a view on the future direction of oil prices would be speculative and subjective, so not compatible with my rules-based SIF strategy.

I recognise that in some circumstances this approach means I'll underperform, but equally it has also saved my bacon on some occasions...

doctor dave

Thu 1:18pm

Seplat Energy (LON:SEPL) one of the strengths of Roland's approach is that it makes an active sell decision. Traditionally this is the hardest thing in investing. To have bought at 230p and sold at 490p is a good result. Coincidentally in my less rules-based system I also sold Seplat at 490p on the grounds that absolutely everything looked to be in its favour.

FREng

Thu 3:29pm

Have you compared the performance of your SIF shares with the rest of your portfolio?

Thu 4:16pm

Thanks for the information. Very interesting.

I review at 6 months and cut those that have fallen more than 5% or where the situation seems worse. On the date of purchase the latest accounts may already be 3 to 6 months out of date. So this is enough time for Mr Market to digest those old results and a fresh set of numbers may have poppod up in the 6 month holding period.

A company can have a good set of accounts, low PER etc etc but be out of fashion. I want to cut these. Eventually they will shine but i dont want to wait 3 years for this to happen.

Essentially it is an approach based on fundamentals but tempered by the realisation that the market can be inefficient or i have been inefficient and missed something in the original review.

P.S. Obviously this only works with a modest bid / ask spread.

Mark Carter

Fri 8:56am

Very nice read, Roland. I'd be well happy with a 9% return. And you didn't need Mag 7 stocks to get a good return.

pj8

Fri 9:52am

That's interesting. Does the FTSE All-Share reinvest dividends? I thought it considered only the share prices.

Fri 10:06am

Buy low, sell high. I bought SHEL when its share price was in the basement. Brent was like $40 a barrel and "experts" were predicting it would go lower. I got out too early, having doubled my money. I had no idea the Iran thing would happen.

Yes, oil is significantly higher now, but where will it be in 2 year's time? Nobody knows. We could be seeing a permanent shift in oil prices, or the crisis might resolve, panic over, and the price of oil and oilers going down.

True, the P/FCF of SHEL looks attractive at 10%, so arguably I made the wrong call.

Stock in Focus portfolio: the first 10 years + Q1 update

SIF: 10-year performance

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

About the Author

Roland Head

14 comments

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...