LON:BOO | Superforecasting BooHoo Share Price - End September 2020

9th Jul '20 by QARPY

19 comments 2042 reads

Dear Stocko community,

This is my first post (I am excited and scared at the same time..those red thumbs down...).

I really value and enjoy reading the SCVR daily posts and various enlightening comments from you all Stockopedia users.

This week in particular the "momentum" in the commenting has been taken by the Boohoo (LON:BOO) saga following the Sunday Times expose'.

For every bull there is a bear, lots of valid arguments as to why the SP should keep declining or going up.

Most of us has read the Superforecasting book by Tetlock & Gardner, and well, I thought we could all put our food where our mouths are and see who comes out as the supeforecaster of the future BooHoo shareprice.

So would you like to participate in the game of forecasting the correct answer to the following question?

What would be the share price of Boohoo at close of business on the day the Interim Results are announced at the end of September 2020 (provisionally assumed 25.09.2020)?

The link below will open a poll form that I created in Google sheet. The form looks as follows: simply enter your Stocko username and your numeric answer.
Close of poll: Sunday 19 July.

GOOD LUCK everyone.

https://docs.google.com/forms/...

The best forecasters constantly revise their forecasts and so you can submit as many forecasts you want. Your last forecast will be your final answer. The username is case sensitive so if you enter more than one forecast, please use your exact username as "R--G" and "R--g" unfortunately are two different usernames in Google sheet. This will save me lots of time in cleaning up the data.

I will publish the results in a spreadsheet format so we can judge the "wisdom of the crowd" and check each others forecasts. I can even publish Interim results, say mid next week? maybe this is going to influence people so maybe not a good idea? what do you guys think?

If this succeeds we can extend the Close of Poll further by one week? more? so we can digest more news and get more accurate forecasts?

You could also post your comments with your forecasts and your reasoning behind, perhaps?

PS: I own a small amount of Boohoo (LON:BOO) shares.…

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HollandSmith

9th Jul '20

What a great idea!

Im a former Data Analyst turned full time trader who focuses on a consistent 50d time frame for all my trades. Having said that, the current chart shows 2 extremes, both up and down, so i might wait until next week chart data to submit my forecast. I would be tempted to bump this up to the top of the blogs next friday to remind all the later entries to submit and not miss the deadline... Including me :)

Also, to solve the problem with "case sensitive" lookup or pivot in a spreadsheet, you can use

Upper() - To change everything to uppercase
Lower() - To change everything to lowercase
Proper() - To cap every word in the string

& use Trim() to clear and spaces before and after the username entry. This can be nested into the formula and will match regardless of case type

Cheers!

QARPY

Thank you for the encouragement HollandSmith and for the tips regarding lower/upper cases sorting of the data.

And thanks for participating. We have 3 forecasts now! WOW!!! One is mine. :-)

Just in case people are worried about security and personal data, all I receive from you is your username (which is public already if you are an active member of the community), your forecast/s and the time of your entry.

See below screenshot of the data collected so far: the first 4 entries are my tests last night before I opened the "Superforecasting tournament".

I will share all data collected, raw and filtered. This will be a spreadsheet .

So don't be shy! This is fun and informative. Bye for now.

johnsmith68

10th Jul '20

Thanks and congratulations on your first article and your honesty about your fear of posting it. Good luck with your future scribbles.

William K

Interesting challenge. I've had a shot. It will be interesting to see the results.

Hydro31

I think BOO is currently priced for disaster and using last years EPS to boot. At interim results, I believe The recent bad press will all have blown over and investors will start to value based on future EPS. Particularly if the results are in line with expectations. There’s also a boat load of cash available for making further acquisitions and for investing and supporting their image. If they announce a profit warning then ill change my mind. But I don’t see that the fundamentals have changed yet and I’m impressed with the response statement. Great opportunity to buy the dip.

11th Jul '20

The Community activity seems to indicate quite clearly where the price is heading.

Update on the forecasting competition.

One week to go to the submission deadline.

33 forecasts received so far. I was expecting more as this company is very popular.

Any comments on how to improve things?

12th Jul '20

Boohoo (LON:BOO) related news keeps coming. Aberdeen has dumped their entire holding, and a co-founder was found to be linked to factory accused of paying less than the minimum wage.

The graph below shows the forecasts received so far in chronological order. Interesting to see how forecasts are tracking the news. Mean (average) share price forecast is 356p, with the max forecast at 550p and the minimum (and last received) at 75p.

Deadline is next Sunday, to submit or resubmit a new forecast.

Link to the live spreadsheet here.

Vote, Vote, Vote!!

15th Jul '20

Latest update on received forecasts as below. Mean (average) price now at 340p.
A downtrend in forecasts as shown.
Link to the spreadsheet here.

18th Jul '20

Two days to go, competition ends close of play Sunday 19 July. Please revise your forecast as needed, thanks. Voting form link here.

Latest news I know of is the downgrade in taget price from Credit Suisse to 250p from 440p.

Latest update on received forecasts as below. Mean (average) price is still at 340p.
Still a slightly downtrend in forecasts as shown. A couple of forecasts anomalies have been spotted in the numbers so far.
Link to the results spreadsheet here.

GreenBull1

19th Jul '20

What a great idea for a first post and the variety of answers just proves why the market exists. Thank you.

There is so much negative 'noise' around this company and it's helped me think about the real factors, both positive and negative, that could affect this share value over the next year, whatever the price. I'm still long.

Laughton

Given his "back up the truck" comments, interesting to see Paul Scott's "bet" or maybe he placed it after one of his research trips and missed off a zero.

As a holder, I'm hoping that mojomogoz's prediction is closer to the actual outcome.

I’ve noticed reading some online bulletin boards that many of the posters who were talking the stock down ( and were obviously shorting) have changed their tune and are now quoting £6 and above!!! I guess they have closed their shorts!!

Caper4

I am sure Paul was not taking this seriously. :). After all it’s just a bit of fun. We all know the stock will be at least 400 and probably 500 plus especially if the new facility in Leicester is given the green light. There is no way the family will let the price drop too low .

Gromley

I am absolutely sure that the prediction attributed to Paul is actually nothing to do with him.

That is the weakness of this - as there is no provable link back to the username - it is quite easy for people to 'vandalise' the experiment if they wish.

It would take a bit more work to provide a validated 'panel' - especially as Private Messages are not (I think available) on the new platform.

24th Jul '20

Hi Gromley, yes I think this has been vandalised. Paul Scott and mojomogoz forecasts were entered one after the other in a space of few seconds and so perhaps whoever did it just wanted to have fun or perhaps just needed a different way to express her/his average and true forecast? Who knows.

Thanks GreenBull2035.

30th Sep '20

Well, well, well! Reckoning time has arrived. Interim results were issued today and Boohoo (LON:BOO) closed today at 375.50p . This is above the mean (average) price (337p) guessed by the crowd that participated in this little game of forecasting.

When I posted this game the shareprice was nosediving due to wage issues in Leicester factories, eventually touching 210p on 15 July. What a recovery.

The winner of this forecasting game is hjg who forecasted 375p. Congratulations!

MiserableJacktPotato

I guessed 385. Appears I was 24 hours out. Well done HJG

Superforecasting BooHoo share price - end September 2020

What would be the share price of Boohoo at close of business on the day the Interim Results are announced at the end of September 2020 (provisionally assumed 25.09.2020)?

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QARPY

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