I am very heavily invested in this share which keeps falling should i bale out? it was all looking so good for some time but seems to have lost momentum, I would welcome the views of the more experienced.
I interpret that differently…. Price has closed below the 618 fib, and has now risen to test it as support turned resistance, confirming it as the pivot point; therefore, imo at the very least a close above that level is required to suggest the up trend has resumed, not before.
while I understand many people put great store in charts personally I think it’s like driving by looking in the rear view mirror
Only my opinion
I disagree entirely with you and I’m also not sure what your comment adds to this discussion.
Only my opinion.
Is Sylvania cheap is actually an interesting question. What is cheap? Relative to the sector it’s not as obvious perhaps. Pretty much all the miners look “cheap”. Sylvania’ s yield is relatively small in comparison to a Rio, BHP, Ferrexpo or any other number of names in the sector including some very big heavyweights. The miners are always exposed to a variety of factors, macro, supply/demand dynamics of their individual exposures. Rio is a big commodity iron ore play, Ferrexpo which has been incredible is also iron ore but a very high grade important in green steel. Some of these stocks are very committed to returning cash to shareholders.
Over the last 2 years , Sylvania, Tharisa, and Jubilee have tended to move together. In fact Tharisa and SLP look very highly correlated with Jubilee the better performer by some distance.
What I am saying is there are multiple factors. There is a lot of retail in SLP, to me that means volatility is exaggerated. Right here right now, I’d begin to feel the risks to the downside are clearly diminished and over time I’d probably be rewarded but it doesn’t mean there can’t be more volatility.
I no longer hold SLP and switched into JLP some time ago-although I’m sitting on a small JLP loss currently, I managed to sell SLP much higher. Why did I switch? 100% margin required on IG for SLP vs JLP at 60%. Over ownership of SLP as evidenced on Stockopedia always makes me wary. Although JLP is optically more expensive, I felt it had greater growth opportunity and more diversity away from PGM.
Increasinglu I have wondered if some of the bigger ones spewing out cash are better investments? It’s all very individual and that’s not just about just the companies but our own individual needs , balance sheets etc
I probably “trade” the mining sector more because it is deemed to be cyclical, so you can get many opportunities in the same stock. One thing that has changed and it reminds me of the UK house builders is management teams committed to capital returns and distributions rather than endless capex. This is a huge positive for me. It probably also makes it more likely that they will acquire junior miners rather than add capex when they see a need. The tailings miners like SLP clearly fall into another bucket but the underlying green economy, rise of EV is still a huge positive, allied to capital discipline makes me feel that supply will not easily be turned on so I do wonder if you may eventually get a rerating.
It adds that the chart can tell you what has happened in the past but not predict the future price of rhodium (and therefore SLP)!
Exactly some people are very intolerant of a differing opinion
That’s their problem not mine
I have no doubt that the actions of the Chinese government lately are substantially damaging their economy as they strive to make sure the CCP eradicates all threats to it's power. However, I don't believe that necessarily means a reduction in demand for raw materials by China - technology companies/ stock investments by foreigners may become increasingly risky but they are dedicated to continually increasing the industrial output of the economy and massive infrastructure spending to drive up GDP.
Instead, periodically we get a negative China story (eg China is reducing output, China is using their strategic reserves, China is entering a trade war with the US, China is shaping up for a shooting war with Taiwan, China's internal demand is falling, China is blacklisting Australia etc) all of which seem designed to do one thing - control the price of whatever commodity China sees an opportunity in or that investment banks want to take a position in. The price falls, China/ Banks stocks up, the story fades and the price rises again. That's why I say 'The “China is falling” narrative is in retreat...' - right now it's played out so the macro realities are reasserting themselves and prices are rising again - however give it a few weeks and it will reappear in a new form yet again.
Memo to self: Why do I look at charts (amongst a lot of other things)?
This is a good well managed company:
This is something else.
Bonitabeach
Disclosure: Long AMZN
I’ll stick my neck out and say from my look at the chart Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) will fall to the 60p area before finding enough buyers to potentially reverse the now down trend.
The patience of the CCP is infinite. The Chinese A50 index is trading at 17% below its 200 day MA and nearly 38% below it's 52 week high and shows no sign of recovery. For investors with a 5 year time frame, this may be fine. China is intrinsically strong and will recover in due course. For investors with shorter time frames, and less infinite patience, there are better places to invest than China. The charts are more informative than the narrative - but both are telling the same story at this instant in time.
Around 6 months ago I said I would not invest in China which you thought was wrong. So who knows which way the Chinese market will go, it is like a casino anyway.
What is the reason for the fall?
Hi herbie47. Yes. Six months ago I was enthusiastic about China. The A50 index was at an all time high after a strong and sustained rise over the 4 preceding months. It was reasonable to be optimistic. I don't think anyone predicted a 38% fall in the index of a major economy when the USA and the rest of the world were doing well. I have learnt an expensive and unforgettable lesson about investing in China and the machinations of the CCP! Hopefully you have fared better with your investments.
Hi Wilkonz, I would not invest in China for ethical reasons. I find predicting markets very difficult and they often go the opposite way to what I expect such as last year, why did they go up so much, when Covid was causing so many problems?
My timing with some US stocks could have been much better, I bought just before the fall in technology sector, most have recovered now and I did top some up such as $TTD. UK has done ok but nothing like the Small Cap index which was up around 50% (1 year) last week.
Thanks all. I have traded out of a 10k loss to a 2k loss and as well as learning a lesson, I am quite content with that.
Apologies. That should have been Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) and not Slimma (LON:SLM) . Typo.
I'm holding fast on all my holdings... May top up with the next Invoice and Dividend cash that comes in.
If you are talking about dividend yield, SLP’s total yield for FY21 = 9.1%, bearing in mind the special dividend payments. This means it does compare favourably with other miners. Meanwhile the cash reserves keep growing. It’s PE ratio of circa 3 puts it right at the top of its sector, and return-on-equity is well over 30%. Debt-free too. This puts it head and shoulders above piers such as JLP, in terms of realised fundamentals, and stonkingly good value.
