Technical Analysis - Comment Stocks for Video Review

Thursday, Jul 04 2019 by
26

Hi Guys,

I film 'Stocks to Watch' on my YouTube channel applying the Wyckoff methodology.  It's a combination of technical analysis, structural analysis, and analysing market behaviour through non-linear fractal price structures. If you'd like me to cover a stock your interested in, comment below and I'll include it in a video. In additional, I'll also look at the fundamentals using Stockopedia.  Any feedback on how to improve the format of the videos and new ideas are greatly received.

Obviously not financial advice, just my views.

22 July Episode #57 click here: KEFI Minerals (LON:KEFI) Unite (LON:UTG) J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) GlobalData (LON:DATA) iEnergizer (LON:IBPO) Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) UIL (LON:UTL) Gresham House (LON:GHE) $EGO $VSH

21 July video on 'How I quickly scan for Day Trades & Swing Trades on Stockopedia' click here: AVEVA (LON:AVV) Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) Petropavlovsk (LON:POG) JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) Mitchells & Butlers (LON:MAB)

21 July Episode #56 click here: First part is showing you how I analyse a price structure step by step and for you to then guess if it is an accumulation or distribution structure. NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund (LON:NBLS) Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) £3IN Amerisur Resources (LON:AMER) US Solar Fund (LON:USFP) Aquila European Renewables Income Fund (LON:AERI) BBGI SICAV SA (LON:BBGI) Helical (LON:HLCL)

20 July video explaining how Stocks move in cycles (trending and non-trending…

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Disclaimer:  

All information is for Educational purposes only. It is not to be taken as buy or sell decisions or financial advice.

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136 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

Jack Corsellis Thu 7:11pm 117 of 136
1

In reply to post #493736

Hi Howard,

Thanks for your posts and suggestions, I will cover all tomorrow.

Regarding the 're-accumulation' and 'accumulation' it depends as to where the stock is in the 'life cycle'. An accumulation would take place following the Phase 4 Markdown. A re-accumulation takes place after a Phase 1 accumulation and during the Phase 2 Markup. I will do a video on this and on the Phase 3 Distribution to give you more clarity.

Best,
Jack

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Jack Corsellis Thu 7:12pm 118 of 136

In reply to post #493751

Hi Adam, thanks for the suggestion will cover tomorrow.
Best,
Jack

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mercury61 Fri 7:09am 119 of 136
1

Could these be of interest? SR are ( ). Could a correlation be made to SR and the Wyckroff analysis be possible?
£KMR(96) , £MERC(58) covered recently and has moved on so would be interested in views on buy in/sell out NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund (LON:NBLS) (96), Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) (96), £3IN (76), Amerisur Resources (LON:AMER) (40)
All the best for a pleasant weekend.

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mercury61 Fri 9:42am 120 of 136
1

Would it be worth looking into UK Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds? Quite a warm topic. Hardman & Co produced an interesting 38 page report 18 July on this area. US Solar Fund (LON:USFP) , Aquila European Renewables Income Fund (LON:AERI) , £3IN , BBGI SICAV SA (LON:BBGI) , £ HICL , Bluefield Solar Income Fund (LON:BSIF) and others. Early days for some mentioned.

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Jack Corsellis Fri 5:54pm 121 of 136
2

In reply to post #494386

Thanks mercury61 - will cover in tonight's video.
Best,
Jack

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Jack Corsellis Fri 7:25pm 122 of 136
1

Episode #55 click HERE

Mercia Asset Management (LON:MERC) Easyjet (LON:EZJ) Prime People (LON:PRP) IG Group (LON:IGG) Kenmare Resources (LON:KMR) Pearson (LON:PSON) Smith & Nephew (LON:SN.)

Will cover more and post how I screen stocks for long-term campaigns, swing trades and day trades over the weekend.  Plus, a video on the 'life cycle' of a stock.

Enjoy the w/e,

Jack

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Howard Adams Sat 12:52pm 123 of 136
1

In reply to post #494786

Hi Jack

Another useful vid #55, thank you.

I look forward to the vid you are composing this weekend as I now realise I have not yet clarified my own differentiated strategies between campaigns, swing trades and day trades.

Consequently my mental ambiguities are clouding my judgements, and I'm trading too frequently and eroding gains through trading costs (not a good look).

Regards
Howard

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Jack Corsellis Sat 7:15pm 124 of 136
2

In reply to post #494871

Hi Howard,

I'm about to upload a video on the life cycle of a stock which can be applied to all time frames. I will do more of a focused campaign, swing trade and day trading video tomorrow or Monday, as tomorrow's video will be on how to screen for candidates / opportunities on all time frames. Having just written that down, combining the two might be a good idea!

Regarding trading frequency, I do not see this necessarily as a bad thing, as long as your edge is defined. In June I had around 250 trades with a 93% win ratio and a Kelly R score of 5. In July my trading frequency has been slightly less (due to going on a short holiday) my win ratio is 97% and Kelly R score > 30.

I'll probably do a video on how I 'tweak' strategies depending on market conditions.

Thanks for the support,
Jack

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Jack Corsellis Sat 7:32pm 125 of 136
1

If you're new to Wyckoff hopefully this video will help explain how stocks move from trending to non-trending environments (stock life cycles) and where to take optimal entry points. It'll help a lot when watching the 'Stocks to Watch' videos.

Video Here

Best,

Jack

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Howard Adams Sun 12:51pm 126 of 136
1

In reply to post #494931

Hi Jack

Great vid on the life cycle of a stock. A really useful consolidation of many of the things you have covered in previous vids.

Also, admirable performance statistics.

I'm not familiar with 'a Kelly R score', what is that measuring?

Regards
Howard

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Jack Corsellis Sun 1:44pm 127 of 136
1

Hi Howard,

The Kelly R score was developed in the 1950's for Horse Betting and the optimal amount to wager on each bet. The R score takes into account your profit and loss in £ and also your win loss % - great way to measure performance. An R score of 1 means break-even, 2 would mean for every £1 bet your return is £2 and so on. I've got a blog post on my website discussing it, but I'm sure there will be good YouTube videos (I should probably film one myself!).

Best,
Jack

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Jack Corsellis Sun 1:50pm 128 of 136
1

21 July Episode #56 click HERE: First part is showing you how I analyse a price structure step by step and for you to then guess if it is an accumulation or distribution structure. 

NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund (LON:NBLS) Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) £3IN Amerisur Resources (LON:AMER) US Solar Fund (LON:USFP) Aquila European Renewables Income Fund (LON:AERI) BBGI SICAV SA (LON:BBGI) Helical (LON:HLCL)


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Howard Adams Sun 2:40pm 129 of 136
1

In reply to post #495006

Hi Jack

Nice #56 vid. I liked the introductory education section.

A suggestion you might like to incorporate, with regard to candles, tails and volume bars.

Clearly you make detailed interpretations of the tails of the candles and also relate these signals to the volume supply/demand bars.

I get most of your points, but I think you employ some subtleties which I would find useful if you elaborated on a little.

Particularly if you contrasted your interpretations of how the candles/volume bars might be interpreted slightly differently in upward movements versus downward movements.

Regards
Howard

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Jack Corsellis Sun 5:34pm 130 of 136
1

In reply to post #495016

Hi Howard,

Thank you for the feedback - will elaborate in future videos on the points you make. In short, it's an understanding of the 3 laws:

1) Supply & Demand;
2) Cause & Effect; and
3) Effort vs Result.

Best,
Jack

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Jack Corsellis Sun 7:24pm 131 of 136
2

21 July video on 'How I quickly scan for Day Trades & Swing Trades on Stockopedia' click here

AVEVA (LON:AVV) Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) Petropavlovsk (LON:POG) JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) Mitchells & Butlers (LON:MAB)

Best,

Jac


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Jack Corsellis Mon 7:29pm 0 of 136
2

22 July Episode #57 click HERE - £KEFI £UTG £JDW £DATA £IBPO £LIO £UTL £GHE $EGO $VSH

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andrea34l 10:36am 133 of 136
1

Please can you cover SysGroup (LON:SYS) in the near future? The share is fairly range-bound (as per my chart below) and not frequently traded, though looking at my Stocko chart I find it interesting/unusual that there are rather more trades looking like buys rather than sells. Looking like it might break out...?

5d36d52b5ee2bSYS_0719_Chart_A.png


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Jack Corsellis 12:36pm 134 of 136

In reply to post #495971

Will do andrea.

Below is an interesting chart of what happened when the Fed cut rates in the tech crash and great recession.  The Feds fund rate before the tech crash was 6.50% and before the great recession 5.25%... now it's 2.50%.  I'm yet to hear a solid argument for why 'this time is different'

5d36f0a5bd1fdFEDRATECUTSCHART.png


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Jack Corsellis 12:38pm 135 of 136

In reply to post #496061

5d36f191513beFEDRATECUTSCHART.png

Here's the chart more zoomed in as was rather small on the previous post! Yellow indicates the peak of the Fed Funds rate and blue shows where the rate cuts took place and by how much.  JC

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unwise2 12:52pm 136 of 136

In reply to post #496066

5d36f4cac10ddChart-s-p-500-index-2362019

You make an interesting point which is the opposite to what Mark Minervini expects, he thinks the SP500 looks very similar to the 2015-2016 base. He doesn't expect the SP500 to take off until the Russell 2000 also turns up (back in 2016 the SP500 pulled back before a big rise).

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