Technical Analysis - Comment Stocks for Video Review

Thursday, Jul 04 2019 by
26

Hi Guys,

I film 'Stocks to Watch' on my YouTube channel applying the Wyckoff methodology.  It's a combination of technical analysis, structural analysis, and analysing market behaviour through non-linear fractal price structures. If you'd like me to cover a stock your interested in, comment below and I'll include it in a video. In additional, I'll also look at the fundamentals using Stockopedia.  Any feedback on how to improve the format of the videos and new ideas are greatly received.

Obviously not financial advice, just my views.

22 July Episode #57 click here: KEFI Minerals (LON:KEFI) Unite (LON:UTG) J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) GlobalData (LON:DATA) iEnergizer (LON:IBPO) Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) UIL (LON:UTL) Gresham House (LON:GHE) $EGO $VSH

21 July video on 'How I quickly scan for Day Trades & Swing Trades on Stockopedia' click here: AVEVA (LON:AVV) Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) Petropavlovsk (LON:POG) JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) Mitchells & Butlers (LON:MAB)

21 July Episode #56 click here: First part is showing you how I analyse a price structure step by step and for you to then guess if it is an accumulation or distribution structure. NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund (LON:NBLS) Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) £3IN Amerisur Resources (LON:AMER) US Solar Fund (LON:USFP) Aquila European Renewables Income Fund (LON:AERI) BBGI SICAV SA (LON:BBGI) Helical (LON:HLCL)

20 July video explaining how Stocks move in cycles (trending and non-trending…

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Disclaimer:  

All information is for Educational purposes only. It is not to be taken as buy or sell decisions or financial advice.

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136 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

Jack Corsellis 11th Jul 77 of 136
4

Hi aflash, what I'll do over the weekend is an 'instructional' video explaining the four phases of the price cycle: 1) accumulation; 2) markup; 3) distribution; and 4) markdown. Cycle then repeats. Within the accumulation and distribution phases there are specific characteristics to identify, I'll briefly cover these too. Best, Jack

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Jack Corsellis 11th Jul 78 of 136
1

11 July Episode 51 click HERE ... £GIL £SPWR Impax Asset Management (LON:IPX) Informa (LON:INF) Nuformix (LON:NFX) Moneysupermarket.Com (LON:MONY) Mission Marketing (LON:TMMG) Keystone Law (LON:KEYS) Huntsworth (LON:HNT) Focusrite (LON:TUNE) Boku Inc (LON:BOKU) Alpha FX (LON:AFX) Computacenter (LON:CCC) Softcat (LON:SCT) Begbies Traynor (LON:BEG).  Hope you find useful, JC

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Howard Adams 12th Jul 79 of 136
2

In reply to post #492166

Hi Jack

Great Vid #51. Thank you.

Regards
Howard

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Lgarvey 12th Jul 80 of 136
1

Hi Jack

Interesting stuff. So have been playing with a few charts. Differentiating possible accumulation and distribution phases can be a bit tricky (hence your tight stop losses I guess?)
I have been looking at Imperial Brands (LON:IMB)

5d285b46aa775Chart-imperial-brands-12620

Looks like a new possible accumulation phase after support at this new lower price?


many thanks


Lloyd

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Jack Corsellis 12th Jul 81 of 136
1

Hi Lloyd, thanks for this. Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) is a really interesting case study. You can see the downwards sloping accumulation trading range structure that formed between 2012 - 2014 (weekly chart) before the Markup Phase.

At first glance it looks as though an accumulation structure may be forming, due to the increased volume signature and stopping action. I will cover in tonight's video.

Best,
Jack

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andrea34l 12th Jul 82 of 136

A FAB video as always. Please can you cover Learning Technologies (LON:LTG) in the next one? IMHO it looks like it's in an early Wyckoff structure:

5d287a8cd1c5aLTG_0719_Chart_A.png


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andrea34l 12th Jul 83 of 136

If you could also cover Breedon (LON:BREE) please? I'm not so positive on this chart, to me it looks like a downward volatility contraction. Long term debt is quite high, though this was primarily to fund the huge Lagan acquisition. The recent AGM was positive.

5d287bc2c114bBREE_0719_Chart_A.png


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Jack Corsellis 12th Jul 84 of 136
6

Thanks Andrea, I'll cover those additional two stocks at the weekend as I've prepared the slides for tonight already.

Tonight's episode is going to be a little different as I'm going to show how to use point and figure accounts and do a detailed analysis of Lloyds Banking (LON:LLOY) and how to spot Composite Operator (CO) and Institutional Trend Follower footprints as trading ranges develop. I'll cover over 10 stocks I've been sent to as well as some of my favourite short term opportunities.

Best, Jack

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HumourMe 12th Jul 85 of 136
2

Hi Jack.

I'm looking forward to the PnF episode although I think PnF has several potential issues with various implementations.

These include confusing horizontal counts with price targets although this can be rationalised by assuming that the longer the horizontal count, the longer the accumulation period has gone on for; presumably this equates to depletion of supply and this justifies equating a count of volatility changes to a price target.

The other main issue I have is that changing box size as the scale increases was an early attempt to make box size represent equal proportions. With computer generated charts this is easily done using logarithmic scales. Stockos version of PnF shows how not to do this!

Another issue I have is many common implementations don't use the whole daily range and only use the close. Stocko guilty here too. They compound this by, if you switch to weekly, only using weekly close. The Donald would say this is a muchly, badly, version. Very bad. Great shame.

This is a great guide to PnF https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Definitive-Guide-Point-Figure-Comprehensive/dp/0857192450 although it forced me to write my own program to ensure it was done to my version of 'correct'!

No references I think to Wycoff so I'm looking forward to that and learning more about the theory. Keep up the great work.

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Jack Corsellis 12th Jul 86 of 136
1

Thanks HumourMe, you make some very good points. I've spoken to Stocko about their P&F count too. Personally, I use Stockcharts.com for P&F.

Bruce Fraser has written many great blogs and is the go-to-guy on P&F - here's a link to his blog if you guys want to check him out Bruce's Blog.

I'm in the process of uploading the video tonight to YouTube that briefly shows the P&F count and target for Hurricane Energy (LON:HUR) that was successfully reached.  I'll cover how to do P&F counts in detail in future videos.

Thanks for the support and enjoy the weekend,

Jack 

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Jack Corsellis 12th Jul 87 of 136
3

12 July Episode #52 click HERE: Lloyds Banking (LON:LLOY) Dalata Hotel (LON:DAL) Hurricane Energy (LON:HUR) Boost Gold ETC (LON:GLD) £SMAR £ATUS £LSCC Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) Tesco (LON:TSCO) Entertainment One (LON:ETO) Augean (LON:AUG) Indivior (LON:INDV) £MSFT

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Howard Adams 13th Jul 88 of 136
1

In reply to post #492501

Hi Jack

A few days ago (Post #18) I asked Jack ......

'Out of curiosity, do you have an approach which defines how large/small you take as an opening position? Then how much you add to the opening position as the price rises?'

Jack has given an excellent answer to my question, in these two short vids.

They are absolutely great, many thanks.

For others following the thread who might be interested in allocation of capital, Jack has explained - why an allocation point arises, when one occurs and how best to react to the signals.

Usefully he articulates and explains the rationale for his position sizes.

I recommend watching them.

Watch them in this sequence ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9Dl-XBbdy4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwDCHn9MHEk&t=6s

Many thanks Jack, I hope you are ok with me publicising your works.

Regards
Howard

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Howard Adams 13th Jul 89 of 136

In reply to post #492501

Hi Jack

Following on from my post #88 above and your excellent position placing and sizes vids.

I wondered if, on a next vid, by any chance could you look at the detail of why, when & where you slice out of a trade or exit fully? If this is a step too far, no worries I understand.

Regards Howard

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Jack Corsellis 14th Jul 90 of 136
2

In reply to post #492551

Hi Howard,
Thank you for your kind words and support.
I will post a video tomorrow regarding how to exit or scale out of trades. I will explain the 'Wyckoff way' and 'my way'. Of course much of this depends on time horizons (linked to investment approach) and risk.
Best,
Jack

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Jack Corsellis 14th Jul 91 of 136
2

14 July Episode #53 click here: Learning Technologies (LON:LTG) Breedon (LON:BREE) Andrews Sykes (LON:ASY) Synthomer (LON:SYNT) DS Smith (LON:SMDS) IQE (LON:IQE) Location Sciences (LON:LSAI) £MAXR Fulcrum Utility Services (LON:FCRM) $GH $VHC $ANET


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Lgarvey 15th Jul 92 of 136
1

A couple more I have been playing with that look interesting
On The Beach (LON:OTB) and Bango (LON:BGO)

Lloyd

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monions 15th Jul 93 of 136
1

Hi Jack,

Couple points on PnF. I've not looked into these much before, but you have got my interest. I have used Renko and 3-line break charts before which are similar in some respects.

  1. In the video you're using an unusual set-up of 8 box reversal. The 'standard' size is 3-box reversal and then a box size that is either scaled depending on the share's price or a fixed percentage (usually 1%). I think that's what Bruce Fraser had used. How did you determine your set-up values?
  2. I would agree with HumourMe that Stocko's implementation is "a much badly version'. Looking at SharePad their version is closely aligned with Jeremy du Plessis' definitions. So may be worth considering - I've not done much work in this yet so far.
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HumourMe 15th Jul 94 of 136
1

In reply to post #492791

The 'standard' size is 3-box reversal and then a box size that is either scaled depending on the share's price or a fixed percentage (usually 1%).

Personally, I've settled on 2.5% x 3, chosen as a volatility filter. A reversal of 3 box is between 7.5% to 10%. Anything more volatile than that, I don't want to trade on breakouts. Dominic du Plessis argues against volatility based PnF, as volatility changes. I thought it a good idea initially, until I'd thought about it more.  

I'm still getting my head around 1% x 1 PnF and feel that bars/candles have the edge here; with intra-day movements greater than 1%, using daily data and having to make assumptions for the order of High & Low , PnF becomes problematic in my opinion. With intra-day data, I see no problem ...

I'd wondered about SharePad. Sharescope, years ago, introduced me to PnF and it is the feature I missed most as, for me, it cuts through the noise. That may be an illusion!

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Jack Corsellis 15th Jul 95 of 136

In reply to post #492791

The reason for the 8 box reversal was P&F is a measure of volatility, not time. Therefore, 8 box reversal was required to fit it all on the chart!

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Jack Corsellis 15th Jul 96 of 136
1

In reply to post #492726

Thanks Lloyd, will cover this week.
Jack

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