That Was The Week That Was - w/e 19-July-2019

Sunday, Jul 21 2019 by
34

Keeping ‘across the news’ (am I the only one to be irritated by this new phraseology from BBC News?)  on the stock market can be a challenge. Investegate reports in the region of 3,000 articles each week, that’s around 600 each day it would be a big challenge to read all of those.

Thankfully about half of them do not appear relate directly to UK listed companies.

Of those that do another substantial number are what I would describe as admin (holding notices, announcement of report dates, Rule 8.5 notices, Director dealings etc) . This is not to say that those are entirely without interest but they are not usually the type of thing that rocks the market.

This still leaves over 100 potential announcements per day to peruse (610 last week by my reckoning), which is beyond the patience of most of us.

I have been working on some text analytics on the RNSes to take some of the strain, unfortunately the evolutionary process is somewhat slow and my algorithms are still dragging themselves out of the primordial slime and have only just about attained the status of Artificial Stupidity.

But help is at hand, “the market” gives us a pretty impressive filter as to which announcements we should take notice of. For the week just gone

  • 19 RNSes ‘caused’ a share price movement of +/- 20% or more.
  • A further 28 ‘caused’ movements  of between 10 & 20%
  • And 65 ‘caused’ movements of between 5 & 10%.

I list below the 47 announcements causing movements of more than 10% in either direction.

If you are wanting to catch up on what happened in the market last week, I’d suggest this is a reasonable (and hopefully manageable) reading list, some of these announcements will of course have been covered here anyway.

In the list below I show share price change on the day (closing price on the day of announcement vs the previous close). I also show the opening price on the day of announcement vs the previous close and you’ll see that in the many cases “the market” tells us what is important by 8am each morning.

This is very much work in progress and in fact it is a by-product of something I am working on. It carries something of an overhead to produce at the moment, so…

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7 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

dfs12 22nd Jul 1 of 7
1

Fantastic report and pretty much unique as far as I know. Interesting to see the open vs day change. It would be great to see longer term too... perhaps end of week? Nice bonus to start the week off. Thanks.

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Snoo 22nd Jul 2 of 7
1

Excellent work, and very interesting to read. Thank you for sharing.

Perhaps a little lazy of me, but maybe the market cap would be a help (or value put on/knocked off)? I guess the biggest moves would be mostly comprised of very small companies who have big spreads so are difficult to buy. A 30% move in a company worth several hundred £m would be of more interest to me than a 50% move in one worth £5m for instance.


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cidunn 22nd Jul 3 of 7
1

just a quick thanks and formally acknowledgment of this great report.

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timarr 22nd Jul 4 of 7
2

That's really interesting. I suspect, however, that the jump in EI (LON:EIG) was more to do with the Stonegate bid than the share buyback:

https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/ei-LON:EIG/news/stonegate-pub-co-ei-group-plc-recommended-cash-offer-for-ei-group-plc-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20190718:nRSR9482Fa/

timarr

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covkid 22nd Jul 5 of 7

Very interesting Gromley - big thanks for all your effort.

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Randval 22nd Jul 6 of 7
4

Hello Gromley,
I do something very similar but I approach it from the other end.

Click on all share index ASX.. Click on % price change this gives :-
Ted Baker (LON:TED) only change greater than 10% this morning.

Click on AIM all share index AXX. Then click on % price change this gives :-
8 shares down more than 10% this morning including Idox (LON:IDOX) down 15.5%
8 shares up more than 10% this morning including Jersey Oil and Gas (LON:JOG) and Learning Technologies (LON:LTG).

Then shares you are interested in can be examined by their stock report or InvestEgate.
Perhaps you do this already?

Regards, Randval.

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Gromley 22nd Jul 7 of 7
4

Hello All,

Thanks for the encouragement and some useful comments, which I’ll pick up on here :

dfs12 – “Interesting to see the open vs day change. It would be great to see longer term too... perhaps end of week?”

In fact I have already added the capability to track the prices over different timescales (I actually look at ‘1 week on’ rather than end of week as obviously ‘end of week’ is offering differing interest dependent on whether the announcement is made on a Monday or a Friday.

Obviously to present this data requires either a follow up report a week later or a more dynamic display of the data. (The latter is more likely than the former, it is not very high up on my development list at this stage though.)

Snoo - Perhaps a little lazy of me, but maybe the market cap would be a help (or value put on/knocked off)?

I wouldn’t use the term ‘lazy’ – ‘work smarter not harder’ would be my chosen phrase. In fact in my back-end data I do have a market cap filter and also a Sector/Industry Group filter. Again this implies a more dynamic view on the data; although in the meantime I could just look to add these as columns in the static table.

Timarr - That's really interesting. I suspect, however, that the jump in EI (LON:EIG) was more to do with the Stonegate bid than the share buyback:

 Indeed. This is one area where the  Artificial Stupidity of my ‘bots’ reveals itself. Because that announcement was made by Stonegate and not by EIG I have no automatic association of that to EIG. I did create a manual over-ride to allow me to associate announcements to RNSes (which I have now done and included in the table above), but that’s reliant on me spotting it.

The only automated solution this I have currently is really a ‘sledgehammer to crack a nut’ and given that in most cases the company themselves also make an announcement it’s not something that feels high priority at the moment, but I’ll keep it under review.

Randval – I do something very similar but I approach it from the other end. [looking for the big price movers first]

On a different piece of work I do this too (although on a monthly rather than weekly timeframe) and it does reveal that pretty much all of the big price movements can be tracked back to an RNS. It’s not really practicable at this stage for me to weave that in here, but I would agree that for anyone wanting to take a daily view of the big news, then looking at the big movers is a really good source.

If I were able to weave that in, it could catch things like the Stonegate/EIG above and also the recent share-price movement for Reach (LON:RCH)  which came the day before an RNS confirming press speculation.


As there does seem to be some interest in this report, I'll endeavour to keep it going weekly for now (perhaps with some enhancements). I can't though guarantee to make it a permanent feature.

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