The Big Dipper by Silver Moon

14th Jan '23 by Silver Moon

7 comments 477 reads

The Big Dipper

This is the title of a Stocko virtual portfolio, which due to the limited number of portfolios one can hold in a Stockpedia account has recently replaced the Silver Coffee Can. My Coffee Can was leading me to believe its route to riches would take longer than the remaining years I have so shortly before last Christmas there was another Big Think. Another virtual portfolio that got the chop was my Gold Rush, constructed when gold miners were all the rage in 2019/20. Lots of lessons learned there but I digress. I’m ever the Optimist, even underwater as in the state I am, but always searching for the golden grail. The Big Dipper is made up of the best-performing shares of year 2022 held in the 6 portfolios I run. I just don’t have the expertise of say, Paul Scott, to reverse-engineer numbers of company reports but mostly go by trends and in particular, Momentum.

So, getting back, the holdings in the Big Dipper number 26, plus there’s a further 6 fancied. Buying these virtually at around a thousand pound apiece, the total came to £32127. Now, not counting dealing charges and spreads, after just over two weeks the value of the Big Dipper stands at £33972, a gain of £1845 or 5.74% according to my unreliable math. This virtual portfolio is doing a lot better than my real ones although of course those are hampered by a lot of water-logged timber.

I do fear that the Big Dipper will grind to a halt just a few yards up the next big incline, some readers no doubt will suggest I sling the lot into 2 or 3 Funds, but where would be the fun in that?

Many thanks to Megan Boxall who on January the 10^th 2023 wrote Traits vs Trends: Searching for success in 2023, her exceedingly useful Post that brought this one on.

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Rusty2

14th Jan '23

Thanks for that, do you have a link to this folio?

I also have set up a buy folio, now 50 stocks, this is up also considerably, over 6% YTD.

My NAPs, 2023 (different from the Stockopedia one) is up only 3%.

Very early days.

I concluded "coffee can" does not really work in the UK but then it is American anyway.

Silver Moon

Hello Rusty, I'm not sufficiently computer-literate to add links of this sort, sorry. Like yourself, I set up my own NAPS in the same vein as Ed Croft's, last July and called it My NAPS 2022 of course. This one is up 4.9% on valuation. I'm happier with this than with the old Silver Coffee Can, I look forward to its anniversary. What I like best about virtual portfolios is the ability to cross-reference progress with my live portfolios.

I do a new NAPs beginning of every month, the only one that has really performed last year was October which is up 22%, it did pick Yu (LON:YU.) which went up about 200%, even without that it would be up around 14%. Sept is up only 2.5%.

July I've had to delete now as only have 10 folios on here.

I would be interested in some of your selections, if you could list a few, I would appreciate it.

KevinS1

Hi Silver Moon,

If you cannot share the PF, what's the point in the post. We all have stocks in our PF's (both real and draft/watch-lists). I'd be keen on hearing what's in it and why.

All the Best

Kevin

timarr

I concluded "coffee can" does not really work in the UK

On what basis? As Mayer says in his book it takes on average 26 years for a stock to 100 bag. There's plenty of examples of that happening in the UK.

At one point, prior to the recent falls, there were at least eleven 100 baggers in the FTSE 100: Ashstead, Cairn Energy, Capita, Daejan Holdings, DCC, Domino’s Pizza, JD Sports, Next, Randgold Resources, Sage and Tullow Oil.

To get a 100 bagger you have to select wisely, buy early and hold on through all of the ups and downs. For example, if you'd purchased shares in Horace Clarkson on 30th June 1986 and held onto them then you'd now be up 300 times. There's been a bit of dilution along the way but in 36 years the shares in issue have gone from 20 million to 31 million. Heaven knows what the dividend return has been.

The coffee can approach definitely works in th UK, but you need a bit more patience than most of us possess I'm afraid.

timarr

Hi timarr, it's not for me to reply but I do have to say that at 78 I have no wish to spend time selecting 100-baggers for my grandchildren!

15th Jan '23

Edit: Rusty, I use Simply Wall St. to assist in my researches, also to add extra virtual portfolios. Here's a rip off a statement which came in on email last night, bear in mind the true time spans of the Big Dipper and My Naps 2022.

And the Big Dipper's 5 of the best on Friday's close:

The Big Dipper by Silver Moon

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Silver Moon

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