I guess the definition of a lunatic is a man surrounded by them.
Ezra Pound
Is the Fed playing mind games with the masses or is it simply another version of Britney Spears hit song “Oops I did it again”? Only this time they did not. They keep mouthing off that they are ready to raise rates and then suddenly just before the moment to pull the trigger draws near; some unforeseeable event springs up, and they kick the can down the road again. Two questions come to mind
Why the intense focus on what the Fed might or might not do; has the press run out of real stories to focus on. Come on we are talking about a measly 0.25% hike. In the worst of scenarios, this should be treated as a hiccup and not a major tragedy.
Secondly, history indicates that the markets tend to trend higher for up to two years after the first rate hike. Thus, a rate hike should be viewed as a positive event as it would indicate all was well. But perhaps all is not well, and that is why the crowd is panicking at the mere thought of a hike.
We, however, believe that this boring Fed might raise rates story is a non-event and have said so many times in the past.
The Fed is hesitating so much in raising rates because they know that the economy is not really strong. However, what is more, important is they are trying to gauge if the public is buying the nonsense that the outlook is improving via all the manipulated data that is being put out? If they sense that the public is buying this nonsense, then they will initiate a tiny rate hike. To some degree, it appears that the public is buying this nonsense. Whatever move the Fed makes; their ultimate aim is to find a way to embark on another wave of QE. Look at the World’s markets; while the US markets look okay, the emerging markets are taking a beating and its just a matter of time before the contagion spreads to the U.S. The only way to prevent this is to flood the markets with hot money. Market Update Oct 2nd, 2015.
The most recent jobs numbers masked a dark story. Unemployment held steady at 5.1%, but only 59.2% of Americans have a job. The difference…
