The Week Ahead: 10-14 March

7th Mar by Graham Neary

6 comments 1524 reads

The markets have had another tough week, with the FTSE and the S&P 500 both down around 2%.

The STOXX Europe 600 has been stable, helped by gains on Wednesday as investors fled German bunds and switched into defence and construction stocks. This followed reports that incoming German political leaders have had a change of mindset and intend to spend more in these sectors.

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German bund yield. Credit: Tradingeconomics.com.

The ECB cut interest rates by another 25 basis on Thursday, as expected, without signalling any clear path forward. Markets are expecting further rate cuts but the tone of Thursday’s announcement has been interpreted as hawkish, with the ECB acknowledging that their monetary policy has become “meaningfully less restrictive”.

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Euro Area Interest Rate. Credit: Tradingeconomics.com.

Eurozone inflation is expected by the ECB to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. Given that they have a 2% medium-term target, perhaps it will become difficult to argue that rates need to move very far from their current level.

The ECB does not have a mandate to also foster economic growth (the “dual mandate”) but it does provide growth projections. These have been revised lower to only 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026. The downward revisions have been driven by “lower exports and ongoing weakness in investment, in part originating from high trade policy uncertainty as well as broader policy uncertainty”.

Looking forward to the week ahead, one of the key releases to watch out for will be US CPI on Thursday. Annual inflation as of February is expected to fall slightly to 2.9% - still higher than the Fed’s 3% target (although the Fed prefers to use the PCE measure, currently increasing at 2.5%, rather than the CPI).

We are also expecting results and trading updates from some UK large-caps and popular small-caps. Names that stand out for us include the likes of Shell (LON:SHEL), Halma (LON:HLMA), Domino's Pizza (LON:DOM) and Somero Enterprises (LON:SOM).

Economic Calendar

Monday 10th
07:00	Germany	Balance of Trade
07:00	Germany	Industrial Production
Tuesday 11th
Wednesday 12th
11:00	US	MBA Mortgage Applications
12:30	US	US Consumer Price Index
13:30	Germany	Current Account
14:30	US	Crude Oil Inventories
18:00

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Dicky Mint

7th Mar

Clarkson (LON:CKN) also report Monday.

intuitive6191

Rather unexpected was today's news that Butterfield Mortgages had conducted a survey of 300 mortgage brokers...

"Of the 300 brokers surveyed, 69 per cent believe the base rate will be higher than the current level of 4.5 per cent at the start of 2026."

No real explanation given for the reasons behind such thinking.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/...

Rusty2

I notice the fixed rate savings bonds rates, have gone up recently for 3 and 5 years. 5 years they are about the same as for 2 years, a month ago they were lower. Inflation is predicted to rise this year.

sharw

9th Mar

Nichols (LON:NICL) also report on Tuesday with an IMC presentation at 10 00 on Wednesday.

Douglas1971

Companies reporting list is very useful.

ShoeShineBoy

Thank you Graham for your excellent coverage of macro events, both in the above and also in the Friday DSMR. It's made me think about increasing my holding in Capital Gearing Trust (LON:CGT) as Peter Spiller was saying higher inflation is here to stay a few years ago when lots of other commentators were talking about how many rate cuts the Feb and BoE would implement in 2023, then 2024 and now 2025. I suspect fewer rate cuts than many think will happen!

I hold HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT) which has been an excellent private equity trust over the last 10 years. It benefits from focusing on a very small number of investments. Hopefully we get more confirmation of the conservative nature of the NAV calculation and any premiums on disposals. I just wish I had bought more when it was trading at a discount to NAV a year or so ago. Now the discount is only -2%.

https://tinyurl.com/yc2w7ers

I posted an Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) article on Charles' investment trust board yesterday. Will be interesting to see if there is any comment on moving from it's AIC governance to an LSE REIT listing, the same as Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP). There were several useful posts on the investment trust board this last week detailing the rules (in some cases overlapping) of each. Supermarket Income REIT (LON:SUPR) was covered in the DSMR on Feb 24th and also Ken has included it in his list of high yielders. Currently trading on a -22% discount to NAV.

Another excellent private equity trust, Oakley Capital Investments (LON:OCI) also reports this next week but the discount to NAV is not really closing. Most of the large director buys are by the founder, Peter Dubens.

I also hold Legal & General (LON:LGEN) for the yield which has been excellent. Even though I have worked in financial services for more than 20+ years, I still can't explain the balance sheet in any great detail. I'm trusting the FD to have proper monthly substantiation in place!

SSB

The Week Ahead: 10-14 March

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Graham Neary

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