The Week Ahead (2-6 Jun): ECB Rates, US Discount Retailers, UK Financials, Crowdstrike

Tariff-related news continues to dominate broader market moves. Last week, a post by Donald Trump on “Truth Social” accused the EU of not being serious about trade discussions and threatened sweeping 50% tariffs on the bloc. This prompted a market sell-off. Then, on Thursday, a US Federal trade court halted all of Trump’s tariffs, except for the 25% tariffs on the auto industry, which were implemented under a different Act. The rest of the tariffs would have ended in 9 days’ time. US stocks jumped in response to the news. However, the administration appealed the decision, and the order was stayed, causing further confusion. This adds to the uncertainty for businesses, who will be unable to predict what their costs might be at any point in the future.

This rise in the last week means that S&P500 means that it is back into the lead over the FTSE on a 1-month view:

Although the FTSE100 and Euro indices are still winning YTD:

Investors in the coming week can expect more tariff-related news, even if it is just presidential comments on social media! Despite the uncertainty, options on US indices don’t look particularly highly-priced, with traders expecting volatility to remain relatively low, as indicated by the VIX:

This may mean that investors can protect themselves from any tariff-related falls relatively cheaply at the moment.

Here’s what we can look forward to next week:

Economic Calendar

A relatively quiet week for economic news. The only interest rate decision is in the Euro Area. The ECB lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on…

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