The Week Ahead (27 Apr – 1 May): Interest Rates, UK House Prices, Mag 5, Sanderson Design

A strong week for the S&P 500 and weakness elsewhere mean this still leads the pack over the last month:

US markets appear to have largely shrugged off the ongoing impacts of the Iran war, which may add to the risks of a correction if tensions in the Middle East start to rise again.

Here's what we can look forward to next week:

Economic Calendar

Interest Rates

It is a big week for interest rates with the BoJ, Fed, ECB and Bank of England all publishing their decisions within a few days. The BoJ kick us off on Tuesday, with the Fed announcing on Wednesday evening, the BoE at midday on Thursday and the ECB shortly afterwards.

The consensus is for all four central banks to hold rates steady. However, the inflationary spike caused by the Iran war is complicating matters, and this may be the first real chance we get to see how these events are shaping monetary policies. All central banks, apart from the BoJ, were in a rate-easing cycle prior to recent global events. However, the consensus has shifted from further easing to rates remaining higher for longer, and even edging back towards hikes in Europe and the UK:

[All charts in this section: Trading Economics]

The forward guidance from all four will matter more than the decision. As will any splits in how the BoE members are voting.

UK House Prices

Apart from the BoE interest rate decision, the main UK economic news will be the Nationwide House Price data released on Thursday. While house prices certainly haven't been going great guns recently, with sub-inflation rises, they have beaten expectations over the last few months. The rate of increase is expected to be larger over the next year, too:

However, there is undoubtedly a mismatch between these house price figures and what the stock market is pricing for the major housebuilders and related businesses. It is this dislocation that makes data points like this have an outsized impact on investor sentiment.

Companies Reporting

We are well into AGM season, with a phenomenal number of UK companies holding their AGMs this week.

As usual, let us know via the comments if you think we've missed anything of note.

Mag 5

Five of the biggest companies in the US are reporting next week: Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta report Q1 results after the market close on Wednesday, and Microsoft releases Q3 results at the same time. Apple reports its Q2 results after the market close on Thursday.

With varying AI strategies but phenomenal capex spending across the sector, returns on AI investment will be a key focus for all of them.

Alphabet (NSQ:GOOG)

Google has been consistently beating quarterly expectations by some margin recently:

[Charts in this section: NASDAQ]

Here are some things to look out for:

• Google Cloud: growth is projected to exceed 50%; this will be a key metric for this quarter.
• Search: Investors will watch for any signs of AI alternatives eroding core Search revenue, which is estimated at roughly $59B.
• Capex: The company has guided for a massive $175B–$185B in 2026 capex, which could compress near-term margins. Investors will be looking for signs that they are generating returns on this investment.

Amazon.com (NSQ:AMZN)

Q4 earnings were weak and missed expectations. Investors will be hoping for this to be a one-off:

Here are some things to look out for:

• AWS Rebound: AWS revenue is estimated to grow by 25% YoY, buoyed by the Anthropic partnership and custom AI chips.
• Retail Margins: Can logistics efficiencies offset rising energy costs and potential tariff impacts?
• Advertising: Now a core profit engine, can this deliver meaningful growth and profits?

Apple (NSQ:AAPL)

Apple has recently beaten quarterly estimates, but not by much. Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter, so absolute earnings may matter less than the general trend:

Here are some things to look out for:

• Services: These are high-margin and projected to grow 14%. Any variance in growth rate could have a material impact, either way.
• China/India: Can resilient iPhone demand in India offset competition and regulatory headwinds in China?
• Transition: There is talk of leadership succession and a pivot back to a hardware-first AI strategy. Look out for any big announcements on this front.

Meta Platforms (NSQ:META)

Again, a consistent beater of expectations recently:

Here are some things to look out for:

• Ad Dominance: Can AI-powered tools like Advantage+ deliver high ad growth?
• Superintelligence: Zuckerberg's pivot to "personal superintelligence" involves heavy capex ($115B–$135B). In light of this, investors will focus on margin resilience.
• Engagement: Watch for monetisation progress for Threads and Reels compared to TikTok and X.

Microsoft (NSQ:MSFT)

Another consistent beater of quarterly expectations:

However, this hasn't stopped the market worrying about their strategy:

Here are some things to look out for:

• Azure Growth: The market will watch the Azure numbers very closely. This is expected to grow 37–38%, and growth here will be one of the key metrics.
• AI Returns: Investors will look for proof that Copilot adoption is converting into material revenue, especially after heavy 2026 capex guidance.

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Sanderson Design (LON:SDG)

Personally, I will be following Sanderson Design's results very closely. One of the attractions to value investors, such as myself, is the discount to Book Value, here:

This is a case where the intangible assets definitely have value, as their design catalogue generates ongoing high-margin licensing revenue. However, the broker consensus recently has not exactly been encouraging:

My theory (and I reiterate that this is a personal theory and has not been confirmed by the company) is that they were caught a bit off guard by the downturn in their end markets. Their customers are exactly the sort of people who have school fees to pay, so when VAT was added to these costs, they had less spending power. With net cash and the valuable ongoing licensing stream generating strong cash flow, they were slow to react to these events, preferring a wait-and-see approach. It was only when it became clear that this demand was not going to bounce back immediately that they took the necessary action to cut costs, and we are now seeing the benefits of that action. Their trading update released in February was well-received by the market:

The commentary on US sales said they were experiencing "increasing momentum", which gives some hope of recovery. They are no longer as cheap as they were prior to this update:

However, rising sales against a backdrop of improved margins could deliver a sharp profit recovery and lead to a further re-rating. They are also presenting at the Mello investing conference in June for the first time in several years, suggesting they feel they have a story to tell again.

However, there is no denying that they are operating in difficult markets in the UK, and the recent rise in share price runs counter to the trend among other companies exposed to UK consumer sentiment. It is this dynamic that will make these results and any accompanying commentary worth reading in detail.

[Disclosure: Mark owns shares in Sanderson Design (LON:SDG)]