The Week Ahead (29 Jun – 3 Jul): Semiconductor Pricing, Euro Inflation, UK House Prices, Nike, Currys

US indices were on track for a rise last week until a heavy tech retreat took over. While semiconductors briefly pushed markets upwards, an abrupt reversal hit mega-caps like Apple and Microsoft. Cost inflation and macro worries have started to take their toll.

• Microsoft announced a massive $150 price hike for Xbox consoles globally. While meant to offset skyrocketing hardware costs, it spooked tech investors by signalling that inflation in the tech supply chain is far from dead.
• Apple announced overnight price hikes on Thursday for Mac and iPad models as a direct response to a massive global shortage of DRAM and NAND flash storage. Because cloud-computing hyperscalers are buying up every bit of memory capacity to build out massive AI data centres, traditional consumer electronics memory has been heavily squeezed. Apple CEO Tim Cook said, "This is a hundred-year flood. I've never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years."
• Benefitting from the unprecedented demand for chips, Micron enjoyed a massive boost after reporting blowout earnings fueled by unrelenting corporate demand for AI data centre build-out.

In less tech-focused markets, such as the UK, there was renewed optimism that inflation may be waning and that this would be reflected in a better outlook for equities.

Tensions eased slightly around key global shipping corridors, such as the Strait of Hormuz, benefiting broader market sentiment, with oil and gold prices taking a tumble in response:

[Source: Trading Economics]

Lower inflation expectations have also fed into the UK 5-yr rate dropping away from recent highs and benefiting mortgage pricing and debt markets:

[Source: Trading Economics]

Here's what we can look forward to next week:

Economic Calendar

Monday 29 June
09:30	UK	Consumer Credit Mortage Approvals
10:00	Euro Area	Business Climate Consumer Confidence Economic Sentiment M3 Money Supply
Tuesday 30 June
02:30	China	Manufacturing PMI
07:00	UK	Current Account Nationwide HPI
13:00	Germany	Inflation
14:00	United States	Case-Shiller Home Prices
15:00	United States	Consumer Confidence Job Openings
Wednesday 1 June
06:00	Japan	Consumer Confidence
10:00	Euro Area	Inflation Rate
15:00	United States	Manufacturing PMI
Thursday 2 June
10:00	Euro Area	Unemployment Rate
13:30	United States	Non-farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate
Friday 3 June

Euro Inflation

Over the last two months, the Eurozone's inflation trajectory hit an unexpected speed bump, reversing previous downward trends and forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) into a defensive posture. In May, Eurozone headline inflation unexpectedly climbed to 3.2% year-over-year (up from 3.0% in April), driven primarily by compounding geopolitical pressures. Early consensus estimates suggest June's headline figure, released on Wednesday, will be stubbornly high and peak in September, putting pressure on the ECB to announce further rate increases:

[All charts in this section: Trading Economics]

However, with oil prices now pretty much back to the levels they were at the start of the year, the key will be whether recent price rises have started to be embedded in pay expectations. Without this, the Euro area may benefit from the ECB taking a more relaxed view about the temporary nature of inflationary pressures.

UK House Prices

One of the most forward-looking metrics for UK house prices, BoE mortgage approvals, is released on Monday. Mortgage approval numbers haven't shown signs of stress, with recent levels broadly supportive of nominal prices. Any drop below around 50k per month is likely to see house price falls, and above 70k per month real rises:

This data point will be closely followed by the more direct measure of house prices, the Nationwide House Price Index, on Tuesday. Having come in ahead of consensus at 3% year-on-year in the April Nationwide figures, May was weak at 1.7% annualised, perhaps showing signs of the market stress that many investors will be aware of anecdotally. June's number is forecast to recover to 2.2%, with a further recovery in future quarters:

However, again, the signals have been a bit mixed on this front, with the other forward indicator, the RICS house price balance, suggesting that prices are falling.

One month's data is unlikely to resolve the debate over the mixed signals. However, an unexpected print could make headlines and move the share prices of housebuilders and associated stocks.

Companies Reporting

The bulk of the news flow at this time of year is associated with AGM's, which often have accompanying trading statements. International newsflow looks particularly quiet.

Date	UK Trading Updates & AGMS	UK Financial Results	International Financial Results
Monday 29 June	80 Mile (LON:80M) (AGM) Amcomri (LON:AMCO) (AGM) Cadogan Energy Solutions (LON:CAD) (AGM)  Creo Medical (LON:CREO) (AGM)  CT Automotive (LON:CTA) (AGM) Empresaria (LON:EMR) (AGM) Europa Oil & Gas (Holdings) (LON:EOG) (AGM) Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO) (AGM) Futura Medical (LON:FUM) (AGM) Genflow Biosciences (LON:GENF) (AGM) Halo Minerals (LON:HALO) (AGM) International Consolidated Airlines SA (LON:IAG) (AGM) Nativo Resources (LON:NTVO) (AGM) Tan Delta Systems (LON:TAND) (AGM) Tekcapital (LON:TEK) (AGM)	Focusrite (LON:TUNE) (Finals) Foresight group (LON:FSG) (Finals) Porvair (LON:PRV) (Interims) Solid State (LON:SOLI) (Finals) Wynnstay (LON:WYN) (Interims)
Tuesday 30 June	4Basebio (LON:4BB)  (AGM) Block Energy (LON:BLOE) (AGM) Buccaneer Energy (LON:BUCE) (AGM) CPPGroup (LON:CPP) (AGM) Dar Global (LON:DAR) (AGM) Digitalbox (LON:DBOX) (AGM) Elixirr International (LON:ELIX) (AGM) Finseta (LON:FIN) (AGM) Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals (LON:HEMO) (AGM) Huddled (LON:HUD) (AGM) Inspecs (LON:SPEC) (AGM) Iqe (LON:IQE) (AGM) KEFI Gold and Copper (LON:KEFI) (AGM) Kore Potash (LON:KP2) (AGM) Maintel Holdings (LON:MAI) (AGM) MicroSalt (LON:SALT) (AGM) Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT) (AGM) Ondine Biomedical (LON:OBI) (AGM) Quantum Data Energy (LON:QDE) (AGM) Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) (AGM) Surgical Innovations (LON:SUN) Tern (LON:TERN) (AGM) TomCo Energy (LON:TOM) (AGM) Tower Resources (LON:TRP) (AGM)	Cake Box Holdings (LON:CBOX) (Finals) Mercia Asset Management (LON:MERC) (Finals)	Nike (NYQ:NKE)
Wednesday 1 June	Sanderson Design (LON:SDG) (AGM) Topps Tiles (LON:TPT) (TS)	Carclo (LON:CAR) (Finals) Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) (Finals) Supreme (LON:SUP) (Finals)	Constellation Brands (NYQ:STZ) General Mills (NYQ:GIS)
Thursday 2 June	3i Infrastructure (LON:3IN) Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) (TS) Braemar (LON:BMS) (AGM) Peel Hunt (LON:PEEL) (AGM) TATA Steel (LON:TTST) (AGM)	Activeops (LON:AOM) (Finals) Baltic Classifieds (LON:BCG) Currys (LON:CURY) (Finals) James Latham (LON:LTHM) (Finals) Trifast (LON:TRI) (Finals)
Friday 3 June

As usual, let us know via the comments if you think we've missed anything of note.

Nike (NYQ:NKE)

Nike is scheduled to report its Q4 and FY26 results on Tuesday, after the market closes. Many eyes will be on the numbers, and what is said in the earnings call will be closely followed. Despite the World Cup boost, Nike's share price is down 44% over the past year, and trades at a level last seen in 2014:

The company is in the middle of a rocky structural turnaround, a reality underscored by a recent major executive shakeup. While CYQ2/FYQ4 is typically the weakest quarter, the direction of travel matters, and this looks likely to be below the previous year. The company continues to beat expectations, but the size of the beat has reduced over the last few quarters:

[Source: NASDAQ]

Despite recent falls, the stock is not cheap:

Which means the direction of travel still matters. These are some things to watch:

• Global trends: The primary driver of Nike's revenue contraction is its struggles in the East. During the Q3 call, management guided that Greater China revenues could decline by up to 20% year over year in Q4. Any sign that the drop-off is worse than 20% will likely punish the stock further, while any stabilisation could spark a relief rally.
• Direct-to-Consumer Backtrack: The company's previous multi-year strategy to aggressively exit third-party retail stores and focus entirely on its own website and apps backfired, leaving it without shelf space and opening the door for rivals like On Holding and Hoka to steal market share. Investors want concrete updates on how quickly Nike is successfully rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners.

Nike's results may have a knock-on impact on UK stocks too. The fortunes of suppliers, such as Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) and sports retailers such as JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) , are linked to the strategy and success of this global brand.

Currys (LON:CURY)

Curry's has been a smooth trend favourite of investors, and the share has trebled in the last three years:

This has been driven by a fairly continual upgrading of expectations by brokers:

However, zooming out to see these upgrades in context shows the performance to be far less impressive:

They do say it is often better to travel than arrive. This could make holding into the upcoming results a riskier proposition than usual, despite the core numbers having already been announced in their FY trading update (LFL sales +4%, Adj. PBT £191m).

Things to look out for:

• CEO Strategy: Fredrik Tønnesen was officially appointed as Group Chief Executive in early June and previously managed the Nordics division. Markets will want to see his long-term strategic roadmap and whether he intends to alter the current course.
• Nordics Recovery: Representing roughly 40% of group sales, this region had previously been a thorn in Currys' side due to heavy price warring. However, the business is showing massive adjusted EBIT growth driven by market share gains in core categories. Investors will be looking for confirmation that gross margins have stabilised.
• UK & Ireland: Investors will watch how higher-margin recurring revenues, such as iD Mobile and hardware services, are successfully offsetting ongoing inflationary wage and structural cost pressures.