I mentioned last week that it is becoming clearer every week that Covid-19 is not the killer pandemic that we originally all feared, or if it is, then it has been significantly weakened by the social distancing measures and masks, and renewed focus on hygiene and cleanliness.
Many people are outraged by the government’s handling of the pandemic. But it’s worth remembering that everything is a trade. There are calls that some suit has cancelled Christmas because we are no longer allowed to have six people in a single household from next week (it is nice of Covid to give us a few extra days before it starts infecting people).
However, everything in life is a trade. Every action has a cause and consequence. Side-effects exist in almost all decisions because there are many connected variables.
There are two conversely correlated variables here. Slowing down the virus, and the economy.
A lockdown can slow the virus, but harm the economy. At some point, the damage from the economy outweighs the cost of the virus. And also if the virus is completely ignored, then this can further harm the economy. It’s an intricate relationship.
Many have mentioned that it’s nonsense to restrict households to meeting when everyone could just go to the pub. That’s true. But meeting up in someone’s house increases the chance of spreading the virus and does not provide any beneficial effect on the economy.
Meeting up in a pub increases the chances of spreading the virus but it does, assuming the meetup does not all drink tap water or order no food, provide a stimulant to the economy by way of spending.
But even if those in the meetup did not spend any money, the fact that they are out in public may entice others to come in and spend. After all, who wants to eat in an empty restaurant or drink in an empty café/pub?
My point is that all decisions come with both intended and unintended side effects. And by the time you think you have it figured all out, in comes another rule which completely turns everything upside down.
My main thoughts about this crisis are that:
Ecommerce companies will do well even if we are not forced into another lockdown
The ease of buying online has been realised by many a buyer and this should see more and more…
