It has been a good month for stocks. Both Jeff Bezos’ portfolio and my trading accounts have increased several billion in May. Sadly, the overwhelming majority of those several billion has come from Jeff – but in what has been a storming month for equities I suspect the only people who have done badly are shorters.
Technically, we are still in a correction – so investors shouldn’t be throwing out the bunting just yet. And for traders, the extreme volatility we saw in March seems a distant memory, as stocks begin to punch through new highs and trends begin to form.
I remain 100% long with zero short exposure, and so long as these positions and the general market continues to trend (or bounce?) the only shorts that I would consider are situational stock specific shorts.
There is an old stock market saying: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. I have always taken that to mean bulls make money in bull markets, bears make money in bear markets, and greedy pigs who lack discipline lose the lot.
You can be as bearish as you want, and it’s OK to have an opinion, but acting out that opinion in the face of overwhelming evidence that the market is going higher is gambling that you are catching the top if you’re looking to short.
That said, I am definitely not suggesting anyone should be piling in. I’m reminded of Stanley Druckenmiller, who features in the Wall Street Wizards series by Jack Schwager (excellent books if you haven’t read them), who sat out the technology bubble, decided to short it, got burned and closed for a loss, then piled in at the top and lost hugely again.
Will someone become a Druckenmiller this time around?
It remains to be seen.
Superdry
One stock I am looking at – and one I never thought I’d ever be long of – is Superdry (LON:SDRY) . If you’re over 50, then you could be forgiven for thinking that this is a dry-cleaning business. Instead it is a garish clothing brand targeted at the younger demographic. I used to wear its clothes ten years ago, but I’m not sure it’s so cool anymore.
The multitude of profit warnings seems to back that up, and the value destruction here is on an…
