Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

Friday, Dec 14 2018 by
49

Mark has been interviewed by Stocko a couple of times and from some of the comments on various threads there appears to be a few of us using his methods to trade the U.K stock market. I thought it would be useful to have a dedicated thread where we can discuss how well its working.

Personally I have been in cash at least 50% since the end of May and at 95-100% since early October. Getting out of stocks as they roll over has protected me from any real damage.

I'm struggling to find many setups I want to buy so I am developing my "sit out power"

How is everyone else doing?


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As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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516 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

llwydiaid Sun 10:37pm 497 of 516

In reply to post #477196

FTAS???

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Nick Ray Sun 11:38pm 498 of 516

In reply to post #477211

Sorry - that's what Yahoo calls it. Should have said "FTSE All Share Index":

https://www.stockopedia.com/index-prices/ftse-all-share-index-FTSE:ASX/

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llwydiaid Mon 9:06am 499 of 516
2

Thanks. The comparison with the All Share is interesting particularly the first three months of this year. Whilst the All Share rebounded strongly Jan-March, the Minervini numbers stayed around their lows not making much progress until the end of March. This was because criteria 6 and 7 in the trend Template were not being met - 30% above 52 week low and within 25% of 52 week highs. The criteria excluded the stocks that simply bounced straight back up and searched for the ones having taken time to form bases. So it's a little more subtle than simply following the market.

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sharesurfer Mon 9:24am 500 of 516
1

In reply to post #477046

Was just thinking this might be possibly be a Stage 3 perhaps? Looks like a nice consolidation pattern on a 6 month and 1 year chart but a stage 3 on a longer term (5 yr) chart. Over the past 5 years it peaked at a 500% return.

I would read it as a late stage base. Being such a great company with, as you said, great quality scores and what appears like a very strong moat, should support the price but with a late stage base and high PE (market knows all about its merits), it might be prone to failure.

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andrea34l Mon 11:29am 501 of 516

I have been some of the recent posts for this thread, many of which are very interesting (thanks).

Can anyone please advise of a simple screen that could be constructed to identify stocks that are in the early phase of a breakout? I have created my own MVA screen with the criteria below (with a few key criteria), but it is a bit hit and miss, picking up only a few stocks, quite a few of which are well into their breakout already.

5ce2816623b04MVA_screen_2019.png


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llwydiaid Mon 2:22pm 502 of 516

In reply to post #477286

Re Craneware (LON:CRW) being a Stage 3 stock. You could be right on this, but it would be over a 20% gain for it to get back to test it's last high. The risk:reward at the breakout was very good with a stop of <5% needed. Time will tell.

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unwise2 Tue 9:32am 503 of 516
3

In reply to post #477311

I don't think its possible to construct a screen to find stocks about to break out or just breaking out, the final check has to be looking at charts individually. With all the resources Mark has available he still looks at hundreds of charts daily.

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fwyburd Tue 3:44pm 504 of 516
1

Is Gattaca (LON:GATC) about to breakout? I notice the MA's are now in the right order (as of 17th may) and it seems like it might be forming the first side of the second cup in its upward trajectory. Any views?
cheers
Francis

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Nick Ray Tue 5:27pm 505 of 516
1

In reply to post #477311

This part of your screen:

5ce4227c754b3temp.png

is not going to do what I think you intend!

If you want to find when the 50d SMA is near to crossing the 200d SMA you need the version of the metric without the "%". (Alternatively Stocko provides % 50dMA / 200dMAwhich you could test to see if it is between -20% (for 0.8) and +1% (for 1.01))

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llwydiaid Tue 7:20pm 506 of 516

I've been looking more closely at YouGov (LON:YOU). It's been trying to get through the 500 resistance for nearly 12 months and it looks like a nice cup and handle forming. However 200d MA is flat at best and is it too late - already Stage 3? Recent results had a mixed response.

5ce4414e440b1YOU.png


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unwise2 Wed 9:50am 507 of 516
1

In reply to post #477671

YouGov (LON:YOU) is definitely late stage 2, it began its current run back in 2010 at 35p. Since then it looks like there have been at least 5 bases, possibly more.

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andrea34l Wed 9:52am 508 of 516
1

In reply to post #477661

Thanks for the advice, Nick, I'll try your suggestions :-)

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llwydiaid Wed 11:52am 509 of 516
1

In reply to post #477796

YouGov (LON:YOU) It's breaking the 500 this morning. I've bought some, hoping it's still got some life left in it.

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sharesurfer Wed 11:52am 510 of 516

GBG group showing recent strength. Doesn't meet the trend template with the 150 DMA above the 200 DMA but looks like a cup and handle. Also, lots of positive noise recently about this share. Its got the right products at the right time (ID Verification). Not yet ready to buy and want to research a bit more but have a good feeling :-)

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unwise2 Wed 12:25pm 511 of 516
1

In reply to post #477841

The forecast EPS for YouGov (LON:YOU) looks wrong, H1 adjusted EPS was 9.6p, forecast for the whole year is only 13p. Historically H2 earnings have been greater than H1.

If that happens again EPS will be over 20p. I also took a small position as it broke out. It would be great if it could form another handle around 510p.

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llwydiaid Wed 7:38pm 512 of 516

In reply to post #477866

Re YouGov (LON:YOU). I see that the brokers estimates for EPS were 20p in Feb but fell to 13 by April during which time the share price barely moved. A change of accounting methodology?

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Gromley Wed 8:25pm 513 of 516
2

In reply to post #477961

I think that's right llwy ,

The 9.6p adjusted EPS for the HY excludes amortisation of intangible assets of 3.9p /share.

The HY results flagged a change in methodology going forwards

3 In future we intend to amend our definition of adjusted operating profit to include amortisation of intangible assets charged to operating expenses, as explained on page 8.

So on this basis I believe the H1 adjusted EPS was actually 5.7p / share and on this basis the FY forecast of 13p looks much more reasonable.


More generically the issue that can arise when comparing brokers estimates is that they do not always use the same version of "adjusted" as the company and these numbers are often different again from the "normalised" numbers presented by Stocko and other providers.

In the case of YouGov (LON:YOU) it is also worth noting that the adjusted H1 number also excludes "share based payments" of 1.2p (the company will continue to adjust these out). I suspect the brokers forecasts also exclude these, but without looking in detail I cannot be sure.


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llwydiaid Wed 10:28pm 514 of 516

Thanks Gromley,
Nice to hear from someone who undersands these things as I come from the chartist direction.

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llwydiaid 9:27am 515 of 516

Bidstack (LON:BIDS) - if you really want some excitement, this share has gone up 300% this calendar year and is just breaking out of a cup and handle after a 50% retracement. I'm not sure I understand what it does exactly!

5ce7aaea68d73BIDS.png


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unwise2 9:42am 516 of 516

In reply to post #478381

That handle is over 20%, too deep for me.

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