Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

Friday, Dec 14 2018 by
49

Mark has been interviewed by Stocko a couple of times and from some of the comments on various threads there appears to be a few of us using his methods to trade the U.K stock market. I thought it would be useful to have a dedicated thread where we can discuss how well its working.

Personally I have been in cash at least 50% since the end of May and at 95-100% since early October. Getting out of stocks as they roll over has protected me from any real damage.

I'm struggling to find many setups I want to buy so I am developing my "sit out power"

How is everyone else doing?


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As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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572 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

herbie47 15th Mar 373 of 572

In reply to post #457963

Yes I agree, my screens has picked up a few decent shares such as Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP), Greggs (LON:GRG), Kainos (LON:KNOS) but has missed quite a few others such as Auto Trader (LON:AUTO), AVEVA (LON:AVV), Britvic (LON:BVIC), James Fisher and Sons (LON:FSJ), Halma (LON:HLMA), Marshalls (LON:MSLH), there may be valid reasons for excluding some of them, the main reason of non selection is because the % 3m EPS Upgrade FY1 > 5 rule so I may drop this. I'm looking at charts far more now. Just excluding that rule my selection went up from 11 to 39. Diageo (LON:DGE), Auto Trader (LON:AUTO), Bioventix (LON:BVXP), £3IN, Qinetiq (LON:QQ.) Marshalls (LON:MSLH), Gamma Communications (LON:GAMA), 4imprint (LON:FOUR), James Fisher and Sons (LON:FSJ) and among the new qualifiers.

I'm surprised Howard only has 2 US shares on his screen, I'm finding quite a few shares there although I don't have the US region on my Stockopedia subscription.

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Howard Adams 15th Mar 374 of 572

In reply to post #457573

Hi Herbie

Thanks for the response.

Yes an earlier entry into $CDNS would have been better but I did not run my screen for a while so missed that, so your point about it being extended (possibly) is useful. I'll keep a close eye. The same comment applies to $NOVT.

NESN, you are absolutely right growth is too low. Not sure why I felt so keen on it other than diversification into non-UK stock for a more defensive play. Must have lacked concentration at that time.

I managed to find Greggs (LON:GRG) Kainos (LON:KNOS) & James Fisher and Sons (LON:FSJ) and have made some gains from them thankfully.

Testing the TNOM MIPS and $YETI you mention, TNOM gets 24/25, MIPS 23/25 and $YETI 21/25. I will look at these in more detail, so thank you for these. ($YETI's lower score reflects its infancy as a listing.)

Regards
Howard

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Howard Adams 15th Mar 375 of 572

In reply to post #457798

Hi Herbie

Yes, A.G.Barr (LON:BAG) is just beginning to align towards my MM screen (I get 16 of 25 of my tests and several missed ones are likely to pass if momentum continues), but it still has a ways to go.

The main reservation I have with it (I've looked at it several times) is its EPS Growth.

For me, whilst it could be a nice holding I would allocate an investment to a stronger candidate.

Regards
Howard

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Howard Adams 15th Mar 376 of 572

In reply to post #457963

Hi unwise2

Thanks for the suggestion and MM reference.

I concur with your point and MM's guidance.

I do use other more broadbrush screens in order to narrow down options before testing against my more comprehensive MM screen.

Also, I suppress tests in my MM screen in order to find stocks which fit some but not all of the tests. So, in effect I do as you suggest, and utilise a simpler screen.

With regard to my more complex MM screener, commonly my EPS Growth tests often exclude good stock options as does my volume test. So by suppressing these I often pick up stocks for further examination.

But what I do find useful with having the more comprehensive MM screener is that if I have competing investment options the 25 tests help me to see quite clearly which might be the better option.

Thank you for initiating this thread I read it avidly and follow up on lots of the suggestions.

Regards
Howard

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Howard Adams 15th Mar 377 of 572

In reply to post #458253

Hi Herbie

Thanks for your list.

I hold ten of the ones you list.

I will check out AVEVA (LON:AVV) Diageo (LON:DGE) Qinetiq (LON:QQ.) now, so thanks for those. At first glance Diageo (LON:DGE) looks strongest (23 of 25). Qinetiq (LON:QQ.) and AVEVA (LON:AVV) slightly weaker both 21 of 25.

Qinetiq (LON:QQ.) EPS Growth weaker and also recent momentum less robust.

AVEVA (LON:AVV) looks promising and I have held it in the past.

With regard to your question as to why I have so few US shares passing my MM screen, its because as unwise2 points out in an earlier post that my MM screen is too comprehensive. I have responded to his point which I concur with. But my stringent screen is a useful tool which I manipulate by suppressing certain tests as well as using other screens.

But that said, two more US stocks have now passed, $HEI.A Heico, and $SPNS Sapiens International NV, which you might want to examine. I have not looked at them yet.

PS I just bought AVEVA (LON:AVV) and Diageo (LON:DGE) so thanks for those.

Regards
Howard

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unwise2 15th Mar 378 of 572

In reply to post #458343

Thank you for initiating this thread I read it avidly and follow up on lots of the suggestions.

Glad you like it and that it's useful.

 I do find useful with having the more comprehensive MM screener is that if I have competing investment options the 25 tests help me to see quite clearly which might be the better option.

You might already do this but I hope once you have a shortlist you check the companies RNS's to check EPS historic figures versus what is listed on Stocko. Also forecasts can be very wrong, I made substantial gains on GAW when brokers were forecasting weak growth.


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Howard Adams 15th Mar 379 of 572

In reply to post #458353

Hi unwise2

With reference to your useful advice.

'You might already do this but I hope once you have a shortlist you check the companies RNS's to check EPS historic figures versus what is listed on Stocko. Also forecasts can be very wrong, I made substantial gains on GAW when brokers were forecasting weak growth.'

I do this a bit but not nearly enough I fear. I will enhance my pre-buy procedures to add this in. That said, I am not wholly guided by pure quants and do in addition dig into stock reports as well as the qual side of the businesses.

Thanks for the heads up.

Regards
Howard

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Glorenfeld 15th Mar 380 of 572

Augean (LON:AUG) has just broken out if a high tight flag/power play. Still got the tax issue in play, but chart trumps all when it comes to power play, right?

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unwise2 15th Mar 381 of 572

In reply to post #458438

You would have to stretch the rules to make it a power play as it has taken well over three (or 5 depending on where you measure 50p) months to double. The recent pullback is tight though. Personally I haven't traded Augean (LON:AUG) because of the risk of the tax issue potentially causing a large gap down unexpectedly.

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unwise2 18th Mar 382 of 572
1

5c8f6e9d92057Chart-d4t4-solutions-182201

D4T4 broke out of a classic looking VCP on Friday with more than double average (50d) volume and is having another good day.

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dmjram 18th Mar 383 of 572
1

In reply to post #458943

Looked at that too but as is all too common on UK small caps, the spread was way too wide for a risk limited stop at the level I like to set.

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psin 18th Mar 384 of 572

In reply to post #458943

unwise2,
having just increased my holding I was about to call people's attention to D4T4 when I saw that you'd beaten me to it. Nice one. The diminishing volume prior to big rises is classic MM. He'd probably be thinking about buying about now.

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mrosbiston 18th Mar 385 of 572
1

In reply to post #457573

sold out of YETI into the close on friday - fill was 29.60 (entry was 24.52)
This might have a way to run, but i've been selling into strength in 2019 (my post trade analysis has told me this has been the right thing for me - that might change)

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llwydiaid 18th Mar 386 of 572

I notice that most contributors here use screens based mainly on fundamental measures and then look at the charts. I do it the other way round, scanning the top 1000 UK stocks on Sharescope with a filter based on Minervini's Trend Template (pg 79 first book) then checking out fundamnetals on Stocko. Out of 1000 stocks, over 200 passed the filter at the end of last May, but the number decreased down to 35 at its low point in October/December. The number picked up in February, from 50 to the current 73. Around half ot these have spreads of >2% which I tend to avoid, thus leaving around 30, and most of these are now too extended. I keep a weekly chart of the number in Excel, but it doesn't just "cut and paste" into this box!

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stock_Hunter 18th Mar 387 of 572
1

AJ Bell(308) - Looks like good breakout ?

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unwise2 18th Mar 388 of 572
1

In reply to post #459148

I pointed out AJ Bell (LON:AJB) in post 365, it is a breakout and it might do well but it's not one I have bought.

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herbie47 18th Mar 389 of 572

Keystone Law (LON:KEYS) has broken out today up 5.6%.

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peterclothier 19th Mar 390 of 572
1

In reply to post #459138

@llwydiaid I do something similar, using the trend template plus two lower fundamental screens so as to not constrain things to much. ROCE of >15% and trailing EPS of >15%.. It still produces only 25 stocks in the UK.

MM treats his trend template as non negotiable, so it makes sense to start with that as a filter.

The fundamental side can be more flexible. On O'Neil's Marketsmith they talk about 7/10 for screens as being acceptable if the technicals are right.

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llwydiaid 19th Mar 391 of 572

Microfocus (MCRO) meets the trend template rules and looks as if it's about to go higher before next week's AGM. Fundamentals also look good according to Stocko algorithms.

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unwise2 19th Mar 392 of 572
1

In reply to post #459138

scanning the top 1000 UK stocks on Sharescope with a filter based on Minervini's Trend Template

Does Sharescope have the ability to screen for a rising 200dma ?

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