Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

Friday, Dec 14 2018 by
53

Mark has been interviewed by Stocko a couple of times and from some of the comments on various threads there appears to be a few of us using his methods to trade the U.K stock market. I thought it would be useful to have a dedicated thread where we can discuss how well its working.

Personally I have been in cash at least 50% since the end of May and at 95-100% since early October. Getting out of stocks as they roll over has protected me from any real damage.

I'm struggling to find many setups I want to buy so I am developing my "sit out power"

How is everyone else doing?


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Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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649 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

herbie47 28th Mar 410 of 649

In reply to post #463488

Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) has been on my watchlist for a while now, my only quibble is the growth, last HY profit only up 1.2%.

4imprint (LON:FOUR) is looking quite good, quite tempted to buy some.

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llwydiaid 28th Mar 411 of 649

In reply to post #463528

With regards to Telecom Plus (TEP). I'm not sure how the trailing 12 month eps growth is 1.8%, but the 2019 end of year is 53% growth, with 31 March year end.

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Ramridge 29th Mar 412 of 649
3

This is what MM tweeted yesterday
"
Still a tough market for buying breakouts... lots of them fail to follow through and many of the best breakouts require overnight risk into earnings (example: $LULU, $FIVE). Be patient and wait for better action before getting aggressive.

"

IMHO wise counsel for the UK market as well.

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herbie47 29th Mar 413 of 649

In reply to post #463633

This is the problem not holding for results, Lulu was up 15% at the opening yesterday, maybe Minervini can buy before opening at a lower price? Yes I agree many breakouts are failing or the share prices are very volatile such as Yeti.

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BottleMerchant 29th Mar 414 of 649
2

The problem with holding through results without a cushion of profits is that the price action can be binary. Lulu could have easily been down 15%. My reading is that Minervini advises us to stay away from such binary bets preferring less risky prospects even if you have to pass on potential profits.

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herbie47 29th Mar 415 of 649

In reply to post #463758

Not sure what you mean by binary, it's not going to be a 15% gain or loss, more likely to be somewhere in between many only move a few %, although TTD was up 30% after the results came out. I suppose you could hedge your bets and sell half if you have a large enough holding. Are there any statistics about share performance on results days?

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unwise2 29th Mar 416 of 649

In reply to post #463673

Lulu was up 15% at the opening yesterday, maybe Minervini can buy before opening at a lower price?

MM didn't buy Lulu because of earnings risk, he can only buy at the prices we can.


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unwise2 29th Mar 417 of 649

In reply to post #463563

I'm not sure how the trailing 12 month eps growth is 1.8%, but the 2019 end of year is 53% growth, with 31 March year end.

This is another example of an error in adjusted earnings. Stocko lists 2018 normalised EPS as 38.6p but if you read the results RNS Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) state adjusted EPS of 55.1p.  Forecast EPS of 59p means estimated growth of 7% for year end 31.03.2019.

Before buying anything based on growth forecasts you need to check the actual results.


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herbie47 29th Mar 418 of 649

In reply to post #463783

Can he, I'm surprised at that, I'm sure he has a few brokers and with the size of his deals, I'm sure he can get better deals than we can, his costs will be proportionally much lower also, I lose about 4% every time I sell and buy a foreign share, so even if I hold I'm better off than selling and buying back. The US market is different for the UK, there results at out in the evening, then there are articles and prices before the market opens, the UK is a rush in the hour before the market opens.

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dmjram 29th Mar 419 of 649
1

In reply to post #463673

Page 108 of Mark's 2nd book:
"if I have a 10% profit on a stock then I could usually justify holding into an earnings report"

"holding into earnings is always a crapshoot"

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Howard Adams 29th Mar 420 of 649

In reply to post #463528

Hi Herbie

FWIW I bought small starter position in 4imprint (LON:FOUR) this AM, it scores well on my various screener tests. Also, the bulls seem to be present.

With Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) however I think there is a tussle with bulls vs bears so I'm watching how things develop on that one.

Regards
Howard

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Aesurgenor 29th Mar 421 of 649

In reply to post #463873

FWIW I bought small starter position in 4imprint (LON:FOUR) this AM, it scores well on my various screener tests. Also, the bulls seem to be present.


I bought some 4imprint (LON:FOUR) a few days ago after (belatedly) noticing it ticked all the boxes on my attempt at a MM screen.

I am just worried I might have missed the majority of the short term upside.


A

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herbie47 29th Mar 422 of 649

In reply to post #463873

Hi Howard,
I went to buy some 4imprint (LON:FOUR) this morning but they were up 60p already so I have left it. Not been buying much recently but have added Diageo (LON:DGE) and Rio Tinto (LON:RIO), these are more a longer term hold, Diageo (LON:DGE) is a more defensive stock, both pass most of my Minervini screen rules. BHP (LON:BHP) is also on my screen, nice dividend as well. Anglo American (LON:AAL) is another one on my watchlist.

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Howard Adams 29th Mar 423 of 649

In reply to post #463893

Hi Herbie

I already have a bit of Diageo (LON:DGE). Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) also hit my tests a couple of days ago, I held off yesterday but took a start position today.

I have not looked at BHP (LON:BHP) or Anglo American (LON:AAL) recently. I will take a look.

Thanks for the heads up.

Regards
Howard

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Howard Adams 29th Mar 424 of 649

In reply to post #463893

Hi Herbie

Taking a quick look at BHP (LON:BHP) and Anglo American (LON:AAL). With my various tests, both are weaker than Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) at the moment so I'll just watch them for a while.

Regards
Howard

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ISAallowance 29th Mar 425 of 649

I'm watching UP Global Sourcing Holdings (LON:UPGS) for a possible trade entry on a breakout - it is now close to a 52 week high since the previous highs have dropped out of the last year history, and looks to be setting up a nice base.

I already hold it on fundamentals.

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ricky65 30th Mar 426 of 649
1

In reply to post #463808

US stocks don't always release earnings after the close. They can also release earnings before the open.

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herbie47 30th Mar 427 of 649

In reply to post #464033

Really, all the ones I've seen have been in the evening. Is that because some are listed in more than one market? Anyway I think it is a much better system than our 7am release time.

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herbie47 30th Mar 428 of 649

In reply to post #463923

The chart looks good for UP Global Sourcing Holdings (LON:UPGS), I used to hold in 2017 fortunately I got out before the profit warning, the spread is a bit wide at the moment. Does Minervini have any rules about profit warnings?

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JohnEustace 30th Mar 429 of 649
3

In reply to post #464038

It’s a fairly even split between US companies releasing results after the close and before opening.
Releasing before the open is associated with greater volatility in the stock price.

http://www.cfo.com/financial-reporting-2/2018/01/whats-the-best-time-to-announce-earnings-announcements/

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