Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

Friday, Dec 14 2018 by
57

Mark has been interviewed by Stocko a couple of times and from some of the comments on various threads there appears to be a few of us using his methods to trade the U.K stock market. I thought it would be useful to have a dedicated thread where we can discuss how well its working.

Personally I have been in cash at least 50% since the end of May and at 95-100% since early October. Getting out of stocks as they roll over has protected me from any real damage.

I'm struggling to find many setups I want to buy so I am developing my "sit out power"

How is everyone else doing?


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Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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744 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

nicobos 30th Apr 485 of 744
1

A.G.Barr (LON:BAG) has formed a nice VCP pattern and broken out today on slightly elevated volume. One that may work with a relatively tight stop...

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ISAallowance 10th May 486 of 744
1

T Clarke (LON:CTO) just tickling 52 wk high at the moment after a good AGM trading update. Any further and I would consider it a breakout. I already hold on value grounds, may consider a trading position if it moves up 1 or 2p more on volume.

5cd56c55768afScreenshot_2019-05-10_T_CLA


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nicobos 14th May 487 of 744
2

Greggs (LON:GRG) breaks out again after forming a short base since the last trading update with vegan sausage rolls continuing their run. Showing great strength.

A.G.Barr (LON:BAG) nearing all time high again after a pull back on low volume. EI (LON:EIG) moving up nicely after trading update this morning and increased share buy-back. Fell a bit after weak trading announced from another pubco last week.

Sorry - would post the charts if I could work out how !

Any others setting up or on peoples' radars?

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unwise2 15th May 488 of 744
3

I am still very lightly invested in stocks, my main trading account is approx 95% cash. Only a handful of stocks have broken out of bases in a decisive manner with limited pullbacks over the past few months. I personally think we have been in a "hard penny" enviroment for nearly a year. 

There are some stocks possibly setting up but I remain cautious for now.

Stocks I'm watching include: Thruvision (LON:THRU), Frontier IP (LON:FIPP), Stock Spirits (LON:STCK), Ilika (LON:IKA), Impax Asset Management (LON:IPX), Boohoo (LON:BOO), InterContinental Hotels (LON:IHG), Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY), IG Design (LON:IGR), Greencore (LON:GNC), Intermediate Capital (LON:ICP)

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Edward John Canham 15th May 489 of 744
2

Games Workshop (LON:GAW) formed a new base at £40 currently on the rise from there.

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nicobos 15th May 490 of 744
3

In reply to post #476611

Thanks unwise - will take a look at those.

Auto Trader (LON:AUTO) has today broken out again on some nice volume after a short consolidation, bouncing off the 20 MA.

Definitely one of my better trades as it popped out of a healthy base a couple of months ago. A nice example of a VCP pattern from Oct '18- Feb'19 with the chart tightening up / volatility contracting and volumes declining through Feb until the breakout.

Yes, Games Workshop (LON:GAW) has shown some good strength after results and now back at ath - bodes well !

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llwydiaid 17th May 491 of 744

Craneware (LON:CRW) Cranware. Lovely chart - 8 month consolidation with ever tightening swings. Looks like it's beginning a move, with Stocko quality rating of 99.

5cde977ef0514CRW.png


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fwyburd 17th May 492 of 744
2

In reply to post #477046

Re Craneware (LON:CRW)
I think this has still got a way to go before the setup is confirmed as the 200MA is still above the 50 and 100. Nevertheless, it's worth watching for that point to arrive in the next few weeks.
cheers
Francis

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llwydiaid 18th May 493 of 744
1

Re Craneware (LON:CRW)
When you get longer term consolidations (>6 months), you often see breakouts with the 50MA still below 200MA. Games Workshop (LON:GAW) is a good example, do you buy the early April breakout or wait for the one last week?

5cdfb9332c497GAW.png


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JohnEustace 18th May 494 of 744
4

Minervini followers may be interested in a podcast of an interview that he did for Investors Business Daily this week covering the US market.
Search your preferred podcast app or player for "Stock Market Wizard Mark Minervini On Finding Alpha". It's part of the Investing With IBD series, dated 16 May 2019.

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llwydiaid 19th May 495 of 744
2

Each weekend on Sharescope, I filter the UK's largest 1000 shares meeting Minervini's Trend Template (pg 79 first book, excepting criteria 8).  You see from the chart below that it has been downhill from about 12 months ago, but has picked up over the past couple of months.  Of the 100 shares that currently meet the criteria (10% of cohort),  around half of them are illiquid small stocks with spreads of <2%. 


5ce1829eec2f4Minervini_17_5_19.png


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Nick Ray 19th May 496 of 744
2
5ce18a2c0dec5ftas.png


FTAS over the same time period. Note the similarity. In effect you are "sampling" the market's performance.

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llwydiaid 19th May 497 of 744

In reply to post #477196

FTAS???

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Nick Ray 19th May 498 of 744

In reply to post #477211

Sorry - that's what Yahoo calls it. Should have said "FTSE All Share Index":

https://www.stockopedia.com/index-prices/ftse-all-share-index-FTSE:ASX/

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llwydiaid 20th May 499 of 744
2

Thanks. The comparison with the All Share is interesting particularly the first three months of this year. Whilst the All Share rebounded strongly Jan-March, the Minervini numbers stayed around their lows not making much progress until the end of March. This was because criteria 6 and 7 in the trend Template were not being met - 30% above 52 week low and within 25% of 52 week highs. The criteria excluded the stocks that simply bounced straight back up and searched for the ones having taken time to form bases. So it's a little more subtle than simply following the market.

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sharesurfer 20th May 500 of 744
1

In reply to post #477046

Was just thinking this might be possibly be a Stage 3 perhaps? Looks like a nice consolidation pattern on a 6 month and 1 year chart but a stage 3 on a longer term (5 yr) chart. Over the past 5 years it peaked at a 500% return.

I would read it as a late stage base. Being such a great company with, as you said, great quality scores and what appears like a very strong moat, should support the price but with a late stage base and high PE (market knows all about its merits), it might be prone to failure.

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andrea34l 20th May 501 of 744

I have been some of the recent posts for this thread, many of which are very interesting (thanks).

Can anyone please advise of a simple screen that could be constructed to identify stocks that are in the early phase of a breakout? I have created my own MVA screen with the criteria below (with a few key criteria), but it is a bit hit and miss, picking up only a few stocks, quite a few of which are well into their breakout already.

5ce2816623b04MVA_screen_2019.png


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llwydiaid 20th May 502 of 744

In reply to post #477286

Re Craneware (LON:CRW) being a Stage 3 stock. You could be right on this, but it would be over a 20% gain for it to get back to test it's last high. The risk:reward at the breakout was very good with a stop of <5% needed. Time will tell.

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unwise2 21st May 503 of 744
3

In reply to post #477311

I don't think its possible to construct a screen to find stocks about to break out or just breaking out, the final check has to be looking at charts individually. With all the resources Mark has available he still looks at hundreds of charts daily.

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fwyburd 21st May 504 of 744
1

Is Gattaca (LON:GATC) about to breakout? I notice the MA's are now in the right order (as of 17th may) and it seems like it might be forming the first side of the second cup in its upward trajectory. Any views?
cheers
Francis

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