Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

Friday, Dec 14 2018 by
50

Mark has been interviewed by Stocko a couple of times and from some of the comments on various threads there appears to be a few of us using his methods to trade the U.K stock market. I thought it would be useful to have a dedicated thread where we can discuss how well its working.

Personally I have been in cash at least 50% since the end of May and at 95-100% since early October. Getting out of stocks as they roll over has protected me from any real damage.

I'm struggling to find many setups I want to buy so I am developing my "sit out power"

How is everyone else doing?


Unlock this article instantly by logging into your account

Don’t have an account? Register for free and we’ll get out your way

Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


Do you like this Post?
Yes
No
52 thumbs up
2 thumbs down
Share this post with friends




580 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

unwise2 18th Jan 81 of 580
3

In reply to post #438038

I would prefer that any stocks discussed on this thread match Mark's criteria. I don't mind a bit of wiggle room if something is close to his guidelines but Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR) is significantly below its 200DMA even after todays gains.

Personally I think Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR) looks like a broken leader, I have been warning on Twitter for some time that its earnings growth is slowing substantially.

| Link | Share | 3 replies
herbie47 18th Jan 82 of 580

In reply to post #438063

How about Greggs (LON:GRG) that is on my screen now. Also Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE) but that may have peaked.

Quite a few have bounced off their lows this year.

| Link | Share | 1 reply
mmarkkj777 18th Jan 83 of 580
1

In reply to post #438063

Hi Unwise2

Ok I’ll keep that in mind. It is your thread after all.

I’ve been reading Mark’s book (first one) over the last week or so and am going to use his technique for a part of my portfolio.
You may be right about Fevertree. I hope not as it’s my third largest position, but close stop loss in place.

| Link | Share
Howard Adams 19th Jan 84 of 580
2

In reply to post #438103

Hi Herbie

Greggs (LON:GRG) passes 23 of my 24 MM tests. Failing on my test EBITDA Mgn % > EBITDA Mgn 5y Avg

Greggs EBITDA Mgn % = 10.7
Greggs EBITDA Mgn 5y Avg = 11.9

So, nothing to worry about.

I actually bought a very small starter position on Friday, much to my surprise.

I was prompted to reassess it after I walked past my local branch and saw a couple of people munching Greggs stuff as they walked.

Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE) passes 20 of 24 of my tests.

Failing on my test of -2.5% below 52wk high. It is -5.96%, so not a concern really.

Failed my EPS Gwth % Rolling 1y > 0:
Shoe Zone EPS Gwth % Rolling 1y = -5.18

Failing % 3m EPS Upgrade FY2 > 0
Shoe Zone % 3m EPS Upgrade FY2 = n/a

But importantly passing Shoe Zone % 3m EPS Upgrade FY1 = 7.32

Failing % 1m EPS Upgrade FY2 > 0
Shoe Zone % 1m EPS Upgrade FY2 = n/a

But passes Shoe Zone % 1m EPS Upgrade FY1 = 7.32

I'm a bit cautious of fashion retailers but will take a look see. I know the SCVR has discussed Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE) in quite some detail.

EDIT: When I relax my 52wk high, 10day volume, EPS upgrades and Price > 0 1 week, Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) appears. I bought a starter position recently.

Regards
Howard

| Link | Share | 2 replies
unwise2 21st Jan 85 of 580
1

In reply to post #438168

When I relax my 52wk high, 10day volume, EPS upgrades and Price > 0 1 week, Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) appears. I bought a starter position recently.

Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) meets the criteria for the trend template but hasn't built a base. Are you using the trend template to create a shortlist and ignoring the requirement for base building/pivot point?

Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) paused between 1440p-1355p for 16 days but that isn't really long enough to qualify as a base.


| Link | Share | 2 replies
herbie47 21st Jan 86 of 580

In reply to post #438503

It is difficult to screen for a base? How long does this base have to be? Looking at some of Minervini's recent buys they don't seem to have a base? UAL and SAVE?

| Link | Share | 1 reply
herbie47 21st Jan 87 of 580

In reply to post #438168

Howard, thanks, I'm tempted by Greggs (LON:GRG). My concerns are over growth, they have had a good update recently but can it be maintained, they had a profit warning last year, due to the weather in March.

| Link | Share | 1 reply
unwise2 21st Jan 88 of 580
1

In reply to post #438708

It is difficult to screen for a base?

Yes, which is why I end up looking at up to 600 charts a week just for U.K market.

How long does this base have to be?

I asked this question a while ago, for new high ground at least 6 weeks, low cheat/cheat 4 weeks, however Mark prefers much longer bases usually.

Looking at some of Minervini's recent buys they don't seem to have a base? UAL and SAVE?

He hasn't bought UAL, agree SAVE is unusual base, base starts 4th Dec, 1st bought on 15th Jan on a cheat, so just under 6 weeks.

A better example of the type of base Mark prefers is HLF, bought 12th Dec, base is over 4 months long.

Volex (LON:VLX) has gone to new 5 year high today after several cups and a slightly messy handle and Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) has broke through a cheat buy point.

| Link | Share | 2 replies
Howard Adams 21st Jan 89 of 580

In reply to post #438503

Hi Unwise2

I am not yet schooled in the specifics of trend templates, so I guess I'm ignoring base building/pivot points through ignorance not design.

However as my MM screener presented Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) as an option and recognising that my screener really uses rather immediate data I did look at broader view of Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) just to assess it in context. This led me to assess which MM phase might Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) be.

5c45d552b22dcInkedTEP_from_2002_chart_21

It might be argued that from 2002 to 2010/11 this is phase 1 (light blue). A time not to invest according to MM.

2010/11 begins phase 2 (light green). A time to invest according to MM.

Now, is late 2015 a phase 3 and a close following phase 4. A time to exit according to MM.

If this is the case, then 2016/17 is a new phase 1.

Thus, arguably 2018/19 is a new phase 2 (the MM investing phase).

Or, is the 2015 to 2019 period simply base camp 1 of the phase 2 which begun in 2010/11. If so, this is still the MM investing phase. MM suggests good stocks may have three to four base camps before they peter out for sustained periods.

I have no idea which interpretation is most sensible, thus my entry buy is but £200's.

But, looking at the one year chart, I think there is some evidence to suggest its a new phase 2 (or a second base camp) namely there is a sustained upward trend since 8th October. I have therefore taken a miniscule holding as I think it is worth a toe in the water.

5c45d7a663ae2TEP_1_year_chart_210119.JPG


Regards

Howard

| Link | Share | 1 reply
herbie47 21st Jan 90 of 580

In reply to post #438753

OK thanks, looking at Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) again, is there not a base formed from July to early October? Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE) also had a similar base but Aug to January.

| Link | Share | 1 reply
Howard Adams 21st Jan 91 of 580

In reply to post #438723

Hi Herbie

Yes, as I mentioned in my first post, me buying into Greggs (LON:GRG) was a complete surprise to me and I hold reservations.

But, I had been aware of what a star it had been in the not too distant past and one I had certainly missed out on.

Second, in the current market I am casting quite wide and far to find options just to buy really small holdings in quite a few stocks in order to see what happens. Fully expecting most will not work out, but a few will come through. I guess I am pushing the probabilistic side of investing a little.

I'm trying to put biases aside and if the quants throw up something I'm pushing myself to go there irrespective of what my more qualitative biases might be telling me.

I have no idea if this strategy will pay off, but I'm learning a lot, looking at stocks I would never have done so in the past and am just about staying in positive territory YTD.

In addition, and I may be completely wrong o this, I sense that the UK market might pick up quite suddenly but I have no idea which type of stocks will do this. I am therefore holding quite a few stocks but in very miniscule amounts at present. Greggs (LON:GRG) is one of these, as surprisingly to myself is Tesco (LON:TSCO).

Regards
Howard

| Link | Share
unwise2 21st Jan 92 of 580

In reply to post #438758

5c45de04d48f0Chart-hikma-pharmaceuticals

Howard

I agree Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) looks like it is entering stage 2 but it is an early turn and hasn't created an obvious buy point. I bought Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK) earlier this year at a similar stage (just as 150d crossed 200d) but that had created a clear pivot point. I have attached a chart to illustrate what I mean.

| Link | Share
unwise2 21st Jan 93 of 580
1

In reply to post #438763

You could argue Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) started building a base in June 2016, but the 150d fell below the 200d and the 200d started trending downwards. Mark's method is only interested in stocks in a long term uptrend and that requires a 200d trending upwards for at least a month.

| Link | Share | 1 reply
herbie47 21st Jan 94 of 580

In reply to post #438753

I was looking at Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) but the spread is over 6% which puts me off.

| Link | Share
Howard Adams 21st Jan 95 of 580

In reply to post #438783

Hi Unwise2

Am I misunderstanding something I wonder (yes - see below)?

My chart shows Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) 150d crossing 200d about 20th Dec 2018. And, buying at that point there had been a steady flow of buying volume over previous sessions to add support to suggesting a buy.

5c45f15355cb6TEP_SP_with_vol_210119.JPG

However, I had not picked up on MM's requiring a trend for one month rule, and in this instance Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) has now fallen back again right at the end of the one month period. So this adds weight to MM's method.

I'm glad I only went in small, but I will hold for a while to see the direction of travel.

Thanks for the discussions. I have picked up another refinement I had missed in my lexicon.

Regards

Howard

| Link | Share
HollandSmith 21st Jan 96 of 580
1

Hi Again,

3 weeks ago I uploaded a list of tickers hitting my screen, and despite it not following the MM method, it received 4 thumbs up, and with disscused shares still hitting my screen, I thought there isn’t any harm sharing an updated list. I have also included ETFS in the list below, which as I understand don’t really fit into the method and not discussed here, but if you look at the chart patterns and returns of LON:CARP, LON:XMID and LON:SPDM over the last 3 month, they are hard for me to ignore in the current market cycle.

So, there’s two *lists below. On the left are tickers which I believe are or approaching an over trended status, and could benefit from a small health pullback to then continue upward. As much as this does sound negative, I have the top 5 in my portfolio and don’t have a real problem purchasing any of the top 25. The list on the right is a list of tickers I believe have had a healthy pull back and are hopefully back on track for a continuation of the trend or a similar upwards trend.


Strong Over Trended

Positive Pull Backs

Name

Ticker

Name

Ticker

Greggs

LON:GRG

X MSCI INDONESIA SWAP 1C

LON:XMID

OPG Power Ventures

LON:OPG

Telecom Plus

LON:TEP

ISHARES PHYSICAL PALLADIUM ETC

LON:SPDM

RockRose Energy

LON:RRE

EI

LON:EIG

ETFS CARBON SECURITIES GBP

LON:CARP

Polymetal International

LON:POLY

Eland Oil & Gas

LON:ELA

X MSCI PHILIPPINES 1C £

LON:XPHG

BOOST GOLD 3X LEVERAGE DAILY ETP (£)

LON:3LGO

Taylor Wimpey

LON:TW

IG Design

LON:IGR

Travis Perkins

LON:TPK

D4t4 Solutions

LON:D4T4

Churchill China

LON:CHH

Bbgi Sicav Sa

LON:BBGI

Polypipe

LON:PLP

Qinetiq

LON:QQ

John Laing

LON:JLG

Amerisur Resources

LON:AMER

AJ Bell

LON:AJB

Drax

LON:DRX

Connect

LON:CNCT

HSBC MSCI BRAZIL UCITS ETF $

LON:HBRL

Greene King

LON:GNK

Ab Dynamics

LON:ABDP

Bank Of Georgia

LON:BGEO

RhythmOne

LON:RTHM

A.G.Barr

LON:BAG

Safestyle UK

LON:SFE

SPDR S&P EMERGING MARKETS DVDND UCIT ETF

LON:EMDV

Hill & Smith Holdings

LON:HILS

Nichols

LON:NICL

ETFS PHYSICAL GOLD £

LON:PHGP

Just Eat

LON:JE

Entertainment One

LON:ETO

X MSCI BRAZIL 1C

LON:XMBR

Experian

LON:EXPN

Bushveld Minerals

LON:BMN

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

LON:GKP

3I Infrastructure

LON:3IN

Etfs Physical Silver Etc

LON:PHSP

LYXOR MSCI TURKEY UCITS ETF

LON:TURL

Walker Greenbank

LON:WGB

Petropavlovsk

LON:POG

Atalaya Mining

LON:ATYM

ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL UCITS ETF USD (DIST)

LON:IBZL

Dialight

LON:DIA

ETFS CARBON SECURITIES GBP

LON:CARP

Faroe Petroleum

LON:FPM

Focusrite

LON:TUNE

Bunzl

LON:BNZL

ISHRS ASIA PROPERTY YIELD ETF USD (DIST)

LON:IASP

L&G GOLD MINING UCITS ETF

LON:AUCP

Sage

LON:SGE

Anglo American

LON:AAL

HSBC MSCI TURKEY UCITS ETF

LON:HTRY

Kin and Carta

LON:KCT

Marshalls

LON:MSLH

ISHRS GLOBAL INFRA UCITS ETF USD (DIST)

LON:INFR

Britvic

LON:BVIC

Character

LON:CCT

TP ICAP

LON:TCAP

Tate & Lyle

LON:TATE

Centaur Media

LON:CAU

Softcat

LON:SCT

Vivo Energy

LON:VVO

HSBC FTSE EPRA/NAREIT DEV. UCITS ETF

LON:HPRO

ISHARES MSCI TURKEY UCITS ETF USD (DIST)

LON:ITKY

Greencore

LON:GNC

RhythmOne

LON:RTHM

Games Workshop

LON:GAW

Whitbread

LON:WTB

Filta

LON:FLTA

Spectris

LON:SXS

Energean Oil & Gas

LON:ENOG

Spirent Communications

LON:SPT

ISHRS USD TRSRY BOND 3-7YR ETF USD (ACC)

LON:CU71

ISHRS MSCI EM LATIN AM ETF USD (DIST)

LON:LTAM

ETFS 5X LONG USD SHORT GBP

LON:USP5

DFS Furniture

LON:DFS

Lonmin

LON:LMI

Crest Nicholson Holdings

LON:CRST

Just

LON:JUST

Watkin Jones

LON:WJG

accesso Technology

LON:ACSO

ISHRS MSCI SOUTH AFRICA ETF USD (ACC)

LON:SRSA

ISHRS GOLD PRODUCERS ETF USD (ACC)

LON:SPGP

X MSCI CHINA 1C

LON:XCX6

ISHRS DEV MRKTS PROP YIELD ETF USD DIST

LON:IWDP

Hostelworld

LON:HSW

Avast

LON:AVST

Go-Ahead

LON:GOG

LYX CORE IBOXX $ T 5-7Y

LON:U57G

SDL

LON:SDL

AMUNDI INDEX MSCI NORTH AMERICA DR

LON:NRAM

HSBC MSCI CHINA UCITS ETF $

LON:HMCH

EKF Diagnostics Holdings

LON:EKF


*These are the top 50 tickers in order and are over 33 QV, £60M MCap, £10M Sales and 250% Less Gearing inc Pension Dfct.

Hopefully it will benefit someone :)

Thanks

Dan

| Link | Share
unwise2 22nd Jan 97 of 580
1

Has anyone found a reliable source for all IPO's that have listed in the past 7-14 days?

The London Stock Exchange website has a webpage with last issues 7/30 days but it is very unreliable. The only consistent source of information I have found has a time lag of approx one month, I would like to follow IPO's sooner than that.

| Link | Share
BH1991 22nd Jan 98 of 580
5

I have found this frustrating too. You can screen for IPO's (link below) but this also has a 1 month lag.

https://www.stockopedia.com/sc...

It looks like Stockopedia only makes a stock screenable once it receives all the relevant data from its providers.

However, there is a crude way of doing this on Stockopedia... instructions are:

Home >>> Risers and Fallers >>> on the left hand side, click "Price Gainers Today"  >>> sort the list by clicking on "Mkt Cap £m" 

Some stocks with a dash (-) market cap are IPO's with less than 1 month price history. Repeat the exercise for "Price Fallers Today"  . I then add these to my IPO watchlist portfolio, until I see them appear in my IPO screen. Repeat daily

Recent examples include: Dev Clever Holdings (LON:DEV) (Dev Clever Holdings) and £0F8A (Ceconomy AG - this is a preference share).

Hope this helps!

| Link | Share | 1 reply
unwise2 23rd Jan 99 of 580
1

In reply to post #439203

Thanks for the suggestion, it seems a roundabout way of getting information. I recently missed Litigation Capital Management (LON:LIT), it setup a great IPO base and broke out late on Friday, I only noticed it late Monday.

| Link | Share | 1 reply
BH1991 23rd Jan 100 of 580
2

In reply to post #439418

No problem. I woke up bolt upright last night, as I thought of another way to get the information!

You can use the following website, which provides a free, real-time RNS feed for all company/stock exchange announcements on LSE/AIM.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

You can then CTRL+F and search for all announcements which contain key words like 'Admission', 'IPO' or  'Initial Listing'. Here are some screenshots of the RNS headline titles to look for:

5c48411b143063.png5c48411b323432.png5c48411b54a431.png

You can then add these to a watchlist in Stockopedia, until it appears on the IPO screen. 

This might be less tedious than my first suggestion. There is a daily RNS announcement called "Stock Exch Notice" which details all new admissions, block listings etc. However, new listings are not always obvious and don't always coincide with the first day of trading.   

| Link | Share | 1 reply

Please subscribe to submit a comment





Stock Picking Tutorial Centre



Let’s get you setup so you get the most out of our service
Done, Let's add some stocks
Brilliant - You've created a folio! Now let's add some stocks to it.

  • Apple (AAPL)

  • Shell (RDSA)

  • Twitter (TWTR)

  • Volkswagon AG (VOK)

  • McDonalds (MCD)

  • Vodafone (VOD)

  • Barratt Homes (BDEV)

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Tesco (TSCO)
Save and show me my analysis