I've come across a unique legal arbitration investment where the potential settlement figure £100's millions to £ Billions would be many multiples of the current market capitalization of c. £27m.

In a nutshell, India reneged on the licenses awarded to a small explorer after they discovered gold in the Bhukia region nearly 20 years ago. This gold deposit today looks to be worth many Billions - potentially $10bn plus given the recent rise in the price of gold. Panthera have a potential huge legal claim that is coming towards fruition, but is completely ignored by the market in this stale forgotten company.

This write up prompted my interest:

https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/panthera-resources-multi-bagger-legal-claim/

This article outlines in detail the:

  • attractiveness of the investment - high likelihood of being awarded a settlement
  • medium term resolution - should be relatively near term (arbitration court processes have started and normally conclude within a couple of years), plus share price will re-rate in anticipation
  • short term catalyst - settlement figure sought to be announced 26th May 2025.
  • company funded for several years and have no win/no fee litigation partners - who themselves vet cases and only take on a minority of the cases they are offered - ie the attractive ones.
  • If they win they have strong mechanisms to enforce the claim.
  • the claim has been ongoing for over a decade to this company has been effectively forgotten, original investors have long since got bored and the claim is now ignored by the market.

In my opinion the author of the article is cautious in his estimates. If Panthera make a claim for any number in the 100's of millions, let alone Billions, the share price will dramatically rise to reflect a chance of winning. Assuming a paltry 10% chance of winning, that would conservatively make their claim c. £250m which looks unlikely. I think the market is ready to be surprised with a claim in excess of a billion and will then start focusing on Panthera's expected reward if successful.

The low probability lottery ticket upside is that they announce they are claiming for $10 billion, at which point the market cap re-rates 25x higher - again to only a conservative 10% of the claim - heavily discounting any chance of winning and then even recovering the amount. Brave investors may decide to hold to the very end - a potential victory…

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