Video/podcast: Robin Griffiths' Macro Commentary for Investors

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12th Jun '20 by TamzinPiworld

8 comments 615 reads

Robin Griffiths' gives his views on the macro picture, during yesterday's piworld webinar. Robin outlines a very bleak economic period until the end of 2023, drawing comparisons to 1929, suggesting the recent market euphoria is just a bear market bounce, the bottom is yet to be reached. A new growth cycle begins from the end 2023, led by China then India. Robin give his view of asset classes and geographies, for investors over the period.

A great listen.

Video: https://www.piworld.co.uk/2020/06/12/piworld-thursday-webinar-robin-griffiths-macro-commentary-for-investors/

Podcast: https://www.piworld.co.uk/podcasts/

Topical with the current market moves. Although Robin has been saying the same thing during this recent bounce.

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About the Author

TamzinPiworld

Premium Member

An active private investor in small caps: growth/value. Co-Founder of piworld.co.uk which provides videos of company presentations, management interviews, investor interviews & webinars, to enable investors to make informed decisions.

8 comments

Caper4

12th Jun '20

He may be correct if there is a second wave and/or no vaccine found before the end of next year. However,I am more optimistic and hence hold several long positions in quality stock that should be double today’s prices in a few years. In the interim, there should be good opportunities to trade, although obviously this strategy is not for the faint hearted .
Furthermore,I am investing with money I will not need for at least 5 years ,so don’t really care about these short terms corrections,other than seeing them as an opportunity to trade .
Enjoyed the podcast though,as I do most of the others on piworld.

Joe100

12th Jun '20

Fascinating and sober podcast. Robin's advice is clear: we will enter a depression, best to stay in cash and gold until 2023. His reasons: previous business cycles have been disrupted and not allowed to' play out ' because of QE. The current crisis has exacerbated this already precarious position. He points out that weaker and smaller economies are already in depression. The 40 million unemployed Americans suggests that consumer demand will fall. Robin sees a period of deflation and then around 2023 inflation. He makes the point that although there is lots of money sloshing around via the FED the system is still stalling. The federal stimulus will devalue the dollar. His approach is similar to Warren Buffett, sitting on the sidelines with cash. He thinks gold could reach $7000 an ounce. He certainly makes a convincing case.

Momoko Miyamoto

12th Jun '20

Think the world has changed too much for Robin’s classical views on market cycles to hold. Also his views on the impact of a 2nd wave doesn’t consider that Covid-19 is far less lethal in working age people than 1918 Flu. Also the science and tech being deployed to counter the virus is a quantum leap from that available a century ago.

Metatron

12th Jun '20

Noted that Griffiths portfolio is a 3 year portfolio upto 2023 but if you constructed a 5 year or 10 year portfolio on his thinking it would be very different.He believes in a long term increase in vegetarianism but has nothing playing that theme in his 3 year portfolio. Did not think his view on holding 25% of portfolio in gold but nothing in silver makes risk reward sense given the history of spikes upwards in the silver price when gold does well.

whatmore1951

12th Jun '20

I hold a small position in CEF a physical gold and silver bullion trust. I will add to this holding shortly. It did go up recently as the stock market went south. Robin didn't seem keen on silver but we might be at the bottom of the commodity cycle so could help with downside insurance.

dscollard

12th Jun '20

worth bearing in mind that wave 1 of the '18 Spanish Flu impacted the elderly and infirm just as COVID: wave 2 was a mutated version that killed the most and impacted the younger generation: adaptation to our physiology and an overlay of the relative demographics would seem resonant now as then but is no predictor. No one knows

On gold/silver relative valuations: silver has numerous industrial applications which are key to its value

In a depression, the gold/silver ratio breaks down

Below a chart for gold and silver in the Great Depression and beyond: the divergence in value is pretty clear as they are almost mirror images : Sliver was around $18/Oz in 1919 and didn't recover that level until 1968. Gold more than doubled during the Depression but then sold-off though there was a bit of a war in there as well

Long term macro stuff is available on https://www.macrotrends.net/ ..

Gold Plot

Silver Plot

whatmore1951

12th Jun '20

Thank you that is really interesting and helpful.

JollyBiologist

12th Jun '20

Hmmm. Robin was making the same predictions about gold/silver back in 2011, saying that gold would hit at least $3,000, but quite possible $12,000 an ounce, and silver $350, but that the precious metals boom would peak by 2015 when you should sell. He was a bit out. Silver peaked at around $47 per ounce and gold maxxed at $1,900 per ounce in 2011. And by 2015, gold hit a 10 year low!

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Video/podcast: Robin Griffiths' Macro Commentary for Investors

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TamzinPiworld

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